Value bet or get to showdown as cheaply as possible? [Archive]

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11-24-2005, 09:09 AM

Second hand at the table, no read on opponent

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, SB folds, UTG folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero ....???

I took the free card, reasoning that a draw would have not bet in front of me on the flop, and therefore I was WA/WB. Comments?

11-24-2005, 10:03 AM

Actually, I think a draw might be exactly what would bet in front of you. Either that, or a hand like QJ, or possibly king with a really weak kicker. A strong hand would have more often checked to the PF raiser and then checkraised, no?

11-24-2005, 12:04 PM

I like your check. You cannot know if you are ahead so why not take a free card.

SNOWBALL138

11-24-2005, 12:31 PM

Well, since you have no reads...

I bet here, and fold to a checkraise. Your hand might be good. Its probably not, but you'd rather have the bet go in on the turn, when you get called by draws and pairs, then you would have the bet go in on the river when he bets hands that beat you, and you don't get called by missed draws.

You have a choice between the bet going in on the turn or it going in on the river. The bet going in on the turn has a higher expectation. Also, this will usually give you a free showdown on the river.

QTip

11-24-2005, 01:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Second hand at the table, no read on opponent

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, SB folds, UTG folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero ....???

I took the free card, reasoning that a draw would have not bet in front of me on the flop, and therefore I was WA/WB. Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a wa/wb situation.

It's hard to say dogmatically without a read, but, against teh vast majority of players, the turn bet is mandatory here. Many times, you're not the one getting a free card, you're the one giving a free card. You bought the initiative, don't just give it up. You can always check the river if you wish.

11-24-2005, 01:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, since you have no reads...

I bet here, and fold to a checkraise. Your hand might be good. Its probably not, but you'd rather have the bet go in on the turn, when you get called by draws and pairs, then you would have the bet go in on the river when he bets hands that beat you, and you don't get called by missed draws.

You have a choice between the bet going in on the turn or it going in on the river. The bet going in on the turn has a higher expectation. Also, this will usually give you a free showdown on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this line, it also gives you a chance to fire out again at the river if it improves your hand. I'd take the free showdown unimproved.

11-24-2005, 03:24 PM

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This is not a wa/wb situation.

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Why not? Unless he has exactly QT, then either I'm drawing slim to Kx, KJ, or 22 or I'm way ahead of Jx, right?

That having been said, I see a lot of merit to Snowball's reasoning.

11-24-2005, 03:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

This is not a wa/wb situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? Unless he has exactly QT, then either I'm drawing slim to Kx, KJ, or 22 or I'm way ahead of Jx, right?

That having been said, I see a lot of merit to Snowball's reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]

My answers my lack tact; if I criticise your response it is nothing personal please do not take it as such. You are showing a failure to understand the principle of WA/WB.

Your opponent could easily have a gutshot draw with a queen (AQ, Q9) giving him 7 outs, he could have a king giving you 5 outs (not way behind), he could have any 2, giving him 5 outs, he could have 109 giving him 4 outs, he could have some combination of the above and turned the flush draw.

Also, WAWB situations do not exist AS OFTEN in multiway pots.

Also, checking here is unlikely to save a bet. Any king is going to be the river so you will end up paying the same as if you checked behind, and you will occasionally lose the whole pot by checking here when a gutshot / two would fold.

11-24-2005, 04:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

This is not a wa/wb situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? Unless he has exactly QT, then either I'm drawing slim to Kx, KJ, or 22 or I'm way ahead of Jx, right?

That having been said, I see a lot of merit to Snowball's reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]

My answers my lack tact; if I criticise your response it is nothing personal please do not take it as such. You are showing a failure to understand the principle of WA/WB.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol. I hang out in Politics. A little forum criticism won't kill me.

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Your opponent could easily have a gutshot draw with a queen (AQ, Q9) giving him 7 outs

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I find these hands extremely unlikely. AQ would likely be raise preflop, and no one cautious enough to fail to raise then bets it into a preflop raiser on a KJ2 rainbow board. Q9 similarly does not get bet in this spot by a reasonable player.

[ QUOTE ]
he could have a king giving you 5 outs (not way behind)

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Why is this not way behind? With one card to come five outs is a little more than 8:1, right? And the usuall way wa/wb situations are though of is on the flop with 3 outs is behind and with the opponent having 2 or 3 outs if ahead, right? And 3 outs with 2 cards to come is a little less than 9:1, right?

[ QUOTE ]
he could have any 2, giving him 5 outs, he could have 109 giving him 4 outs, he could have some combination of the above and turned the flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any 2 and T9 is not betting into me on the flop if played reasonably (and, lets face it, only A2s is realistic). The turned flush draw is a possibility, but many who bet one of the reasonably possible hands into me and then pick up the flush draw are betting the turn, so the possibilty seems fairly low.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, WAWB situations do not exist AS OFTEN in multiway pots.

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But it was heads up on the turn.

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Also, checking here is unlikely to save a bet. Any king is going to be the river so you will end up paying the same as if you checked behind, and you will occasionally lose the whole pot by checking here when a gutshot / two would fold.

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Yes, this is Snowball's point as I understand it. There is, of course, the lost opportnity when checkraised, but on the whole I belive that this is right.

11-24-2005, 10:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Second hand at the table, no read on opponent

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, SB folds, UTG folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero ....???

I took the free card, reasoning that a draw would have not bet in front of me on the flop, and therefore I was WA/WB. Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you check turn what do you do when he bets river? (I'd have to call).

So, I bet turn and if I don't improve I check it down at the end. It's a Big Bet either way, with the potential for making money on the river if you improve.