early SNG results: is this normal?

(10+1)

# 60
ROI -8%
ITM 42%
Buyins $677
Vig $67
Prizes $625
Profit -$52
$/Tourney -$0.87
$/hour $-1.43
itm from bubble 70%
bubble % +/- -5%

i know i need 10 billion sng's before you think any of this means something, but honestly when i'm actually in the negative numbers i get a real sense something is going wrong. do most people start out like this, or do i just suck completely?

serious responses only, thanks.

What kind of responce do you want? Your sample size is too small, get over it.

[citanul]

what can we say? so far, you stink. you're down less than the rake, chillax. a couple Ws in a row and you're a + player. so far it looks like you stink at the bubble. if you do actually stink at the bubble, fix that. if not, chill out.

With 42% ITM and a negative ROI, you must be getting too many thirds. This could indicate poor ITM/bubble play. Specifically, not pushing enough and limping in crippled to the money. Although your ITM might go down slightly, if you play more aggressively in the later levels, you will have a better chance of accumulating a big stack and beating everyone over the head with it all the way to first place. All this being said, play about 150 more SnGs and post stats again. Also, post bubble hands (4 people left). I'm sure you're not pushing enough.

[Big Limpin']

you down 50 bucks? guess what? if ONE single coinflip had gone your way, a 4th may have become a 1st. Then you are even steven.

you think over the course of 60 games, you could maybe have gotten lucky TWICE? Then you'd be up money. Over your sample, the results of a signle big hand will move your ROI by several points.
Of course, the arguement is that you could have lost one or two more hands, and thats true.

But, over small samples, your gut-feeling is more accurate than your spreadsheet at telling you if you are in a game you can beat.

[tshort]

[ QUOTE ]
(10+1)

# 60
ROI -8%
ITM 42%
Buyins $677
Vig $67
Prizes $625
Profit -$52
$/Tourney -$0.87
$/hour $-1.43
itm from bubble 70%
bubble % +/- -5%

i know i need 10 billion sng's before you think any of this means something, but honestly when i'm actually in the negative numbers i get a real sense something is going wrong. do most people start out like this, or do i just suck completely?

serious responses only, thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be impossible for an intelligent poster to give you a serious response as to whether or not this is "normal." I think you are doing well. You are losing less than what I would expect you to lose per tournament (one dollar). This means over the 60 tournies you've played you haven't sucked... you've done better than average.

You could get serious responses by posting about your tournament strategy and relative hands.

yeah i post threads quite a bit, some don't get responded to, but one i talked about how i get third so often. i'll try to bump it or something.

anyway, thanks.

[runner4life7]

your ITM is huge with a negative ROI. Id say this means soemthing, but 60 games doesnt mean anything and you know that so dont pretend it does. Just make sure you arent playing too scared on the bubble that everytime you try to "sneak" in. OTher than that just play more, a lot more.

yeah, i was wondering what a good ITM range is as well now that you mention that. 42% is good then? i wasn't sure.

[tigerite]

Very good. Anything above 40% is what you want to aim for. But not at the expense of always being short stacked going ITM, it's a fine line.

yeah i'm getting short stacked a lot when it gets down to 4-5 players.. very frustrating, wish i had more breathing room. at this point i'll push with any ace or PP.

[tigerite]

It could just be variance though. My first ~400 or so $55s my ITM and ROI were very, very healthy.. ITM was about 42%, ROI I can't remember, but mid 30%'s. I then had a really awful downswing through the next ~200, then last night went 111133xx in a set, and my ITM is now at 36% (which I want to be higher), with ROI 14%.

It still means nothing, though. Below 1k SNG's it's impossible to really have a feel for how you're doing.

the problem is if i play 1k sng's wrong it's kind of hard to correct it later and you lose a lot more money.

[tigerite]

Well yeah.. that's why posting hands and situations is very important. And to learn patience.

yeah, see my other thread, i think my problem is the opposite.

you'll learn how to play them, basically simple as that. 11s are pie once you get used to the tournament structure and the relative skill (or lack of) from your opponents. my itm at the 11s was only 44 and my roi was 27, and i consider myself actually not doing so well (ie i had more 2nds than first, but then i moved up to the 22s). its just nice tho when i have a large downswing at the 22s to go back to the 11s and tear it up...so you'll learn the more you play

[lacky]

to put it into perspective for you....

I've made my living in all forms of poker for 2+ years, have played thousands of sng's 55's and up, with a solid win rate at all levels. I've played 4x more than your 60 this month, and have results worse than yours.

[censored] happens

doesn't mean you shouldn't think what could be wrong (I do)and try and get better, but putting too much meaning in meaningless results without the long term to reassure you is very deadly in poker. If you start down the "hmm, that didnt work the last 10 times I tried it, let's try this instead" path, you will fail. The only way to learn poker is to know the correct theory and methods and then use them. The cruel thing about poker is you have to play a hand the way you know is correct everytime, even if you NEVER win with it. Otherwise you turn into that guy that never raises with AK cause he always loses with it anyway.

So don't worry about the stats crap, worry about if you played the hands correctly in those 60 sng's.

[mosdef]

[ QUOTE ]
So don't worry about the stats crap, worry about if you played the hands correctly in those 60 sng's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, the good news for OP is that he has been posting lots of hands recently. So he will likely get things straightened out if he can ignore the short term frustrations and growing pains.