push with mid pocket pairs?

this is how i bust out a lot. here 88 is barely better than a coinflip vs. overcards. so is it really even worth playing?

#Game No : 3085812518
***** Hand History for Game 3085812518 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:17674609 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) - Thursday, November 24, 00:20:24 EDT 2005
Table Table 67640 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: amermark1 ( $1145 )
Seat 2: twyster ( $985 )
Seat 4: fishjersey ( $345 )
Seat 5: fishnutz ( $1625 )
Seat 6: heret1k ( $775 )
Seat 7: Mattw69 ( $1720 )
Seat 9: parazit1951 ( $1405 )
Trny:17674609 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to heret1k [ 8d 8s ]
Mattw69 folds.
>You have options at Table 66987 Table!.
parazit1951 folds.
amermark1 folds.
twyster raises [350].
fishjersey folds.
fishnutz folds.
heret1k is all-In [675]
twyster calls [425].
** Dealing Flop ** [ As, 9h, Jc ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 2d ]
twyster shows [ Ad, Qs ] a pair of aces.
heret1k shows [ 8d, 8s ] a pair of eights.
twyster wins 1600 chips from the main pot with a pair of aces.
heret1k finished in seventh place.
heret1k has left the table.

bump with more info

in pokerstove i noticed soemthing like 88 is only about a coinflip to two overcards. while it may be a viable push, is it worth calling a raise with? the raise in that hand almost certainly indicates overcards to me or a better pair.

i ask because i think i have gone out in third the most to overcards when holding a pair.

[The Yugoslavian]

You have no FE pushing 88 here. Villian is raising a weird amount from MP. Some players will make these weird raises with weaker hands in their playable hands range.....some with only the best hands. Either way there aren't too many hands you'll be way ahead of here considering his position is MP.

If he's been raising alot and such then getting the chips in may be a good idea. If not, I like folding. Also, how good are your chances of being able to open push in the next couple of hands? Additionally, will the blinds be level 5 or still level 4 the next time they hit you?

Yugoslav

[clevernapkin]

i agree here,

if you had less than 4x BB or so id say go ahead and take a flip, as you won't have much FE when u try and push later

yeah, i was in late position so i supposed i could have waited. i don't remember how long we had been at those blinds at that time.

[Eevee]

Yeah, what he said.

-EV

Current Music: Linkin Park - Crawlin

[tigerite]

I think this is a fold. Not by a lot, though.

it's just so hard to figure out what these low-level players are betting with.

[bennies]

Yep, it's very hard.

As the Hero I'd push TT in a flash here. Actually I don't think pushing 88 is bad either. If we knew villain had overcards I'm sure it is the best move considering Hero pays only 675 to win 925.

[tigerite]

No, pushing 88 here is not bad at all, but I think I'd prefer not to. Marginally.

The reason being that, although you only need to be a 48.6% favourite to push (let's assume he will always call, as he surely will) his hands can certainly include AA-99. Which leaves us hoping his range is outside of 44+,ATo+,A8s+,KQs. Pretty wide for such a raise.

Now with TT, obviously the pairs dominating us are much fewer, his range can be much tighter, and I push without even thinking about it. I just worked it out for fun, 88+,AJo+,ATs+. Yeah, that's surely a push.

[ QUOTE ]
it's just so hard to figure out what these low-level players are betting with.

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe you should play at a higher buy-in where the players are easier to read.

But seriously: good that you're keeping a sense of humor about things.

yeah about that, how come 88 is only a 54% shot over two overcards like AK? doesn't AK only have 6 outs?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

164,381,184 games 0.187 secs 879,043,764 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.5099 % 45.32% 00.19% { AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 54.4901 % 54.30% 00.19% { 88 }

[xJMPx]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah about that, how come 88 is only a 54% shot over two overcards like AK? doesn't AK only have 6 outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it has more than six outs because you can make flushes, straights, as well as hit your A or K. Also, you have five cards to hit your outs which makes it much more likely to occur than if you just have, say, the river left were six outs is about 15%.

So, AK is essentially a coinflip to a underpair when you get to see all five cards.

[ QUOTE ]
yeah about that, how come 88 is only a 54% shot over two overcards like AK? doesn't AK only have 6 outs?

[/ QUOTE ]But, five chances to hit those 6 outs.

42/48 * 41/47 * 40/46 * 39/45 * 38/44 = .497

which is the likelihood that neither an ace nor a king will appear. There are, of course, flush and straight draws to consider (for both players) and the possibility that an 8 comes.

yeah, that makes sense. also the small likelihood my pair is counterfeited.