30-60 Hand against jennicide

[Michael Davis]

Here's a hand that was played not by me, but by my good friend geormiet, who also decided to invite ten losers from our language school over for a Costa Rican Thanksgiving dinner tomorrow night forcing me to clean and to do other crap that I'd rather not do.

Preflop geormiet open raises from MP with KK. He is threebet by jennicide who is in the SB. BB folds and geormiet caps.

The flop is QT4 rainbow. Jennicide bets, geormiet raises, jennicide threebets.

The turn is a rag. Jennicide bets, geormiet raises, jennicide threebets, geormiet folds.

-Michael

[flawless_victory]

dont like that turn raise, call down.
if you need to put in one more raise, raise a good river.

[shemp]

So that was the plan. Raise the turn and fold to a 3-bet? Hmmm.

[geormiet]

What are you saying? hmmmm

[shemp]

I can't seem to find a range of hands to put jennicide on at that point which makes it a good plan. Maybe I'm not trying hard enough. But you come up with a range of hands and we can postulate how she'll react to a raise. And then we can say whether your plan made sense.

[geormiet]

AA, AQ, KQ, QQ, TT, with AQ being the most likely.

[surfdoc]

I think you need to lelaise. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Michael Davis]

"with AQ being the most likely."

But if this is true, then folding is obviously wrong. The problem I see is that for this to be true, we have to assume that jennicide is making no effort to read your hand, as you cannot possibly have a hand worse than AQ at this point in the action.

-Michael

[shemp]

Thank you. So you are behind 12, all of which leave you 2 outs, and all of which may 3 bet, half of which are guaranteed to 3 bet. You are ahead of 18, 12 of which have 5 outs, and 6 of which have 2 outs. You aren't going to bet the river if an A hits, presumably. Are you going to bet the river if a blank hits? How much work do I have to show?

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
"with AQ being the most likely."

But if this is true, then folding is obviously wrong. The problem I see is that for this to be true, we have to assume that jennicide is making no effort to read your hand, as you cannot possibly have a hand worse than AQ at this point in the action.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he means that is her hand range when she leads the turn, his turn range will then almost perfectly for hero sperate her hand range.

I'd rather 'raise the river to save bets' spicyf style.

[Michael Davis]

"I think he means that is her hand range when she leads the turn"

Yes, of course you are right. My bad.

-Michael

[34TheTruth34]

I seem to be by myself here, but I like the way he played it. He gets good value when he's ahead and I don't think she's three-betting a hand he's ever ahead of here. Also, it allows him to get away from his hand. If he calls and raises a blank river, I feel like he almost has to call the raise.

OTOH, he played the Thanksgiving dinner much, much worse.

[Michael Davis]

"OTOH, he played the Thanksgiving dinner much, much worse."

Two of the girls are young, attractive Americans who claim they won't put out for religious reasons.

I'm planning on bringing a hooker.

-Michael

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm planning on bringing a hooker.

[/ QUOTE ]


yeah, we know how you roll...

[ggbman]

I think the turn raise is horrible.

[mike l.]

"won't put out for religious reasons."

that's code for "vag is closed but will you please siimp", didnt anyone ever teach you that?

[mike l.]

this hand was played fine. you found out you were badly beat after putting in the appropriate amount of action and then folded and moved on. well done.

[OnkelHotte]

sorry for that question, but does nobody cap the flop?

I think, if u plan to call down a turn bet, I would cap the flop and calldown any turnbet and bet the turn if she checks.

wrong?

[smurfitup]

[ QUOTE ]
sorry for that question, but does nobody cap the flop?

I think, if u plan to call down a turn bet, I would cap the flop and calldown any turnbet and bet the turn if she checks.

wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

well, the fact that she just bet-3bet into the pre-flop capper generally indicates a monster.. unless hero has shown some severe laggish tendencies or she's on tilt, he's being shown a set here almost always. honestly, in my experience w/ jennicide, i doubt she'd 3 bet the turn here w/ anything less than a set.

[SA125]

Fear of the Weak Tight label strikes again. Flat calling down the turn and river is the best line here. You spend the same 2 BB's and -

1 - keep the worse hand in when you're ahead.
2 - give yourself a chance to catch the longshot 2 outer when behind.
3 - avoid giving too much action or being outplayed.

[Noo Yawk]

[ QUOTE ]
Fear of the Weak Tight label strikes again. Flat calling down the turn and river is the best line here. You spend the same 2 BB's and -

1 - keep the worse hand in when you're ahead.
2 - give yourself a chance to catch the longshot 2 outer when behind.
3 - avoid giving too much action or being outplayed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100%. Putting in the same amount of bets plus giving yourself a few extra percent to catch up if behind, makes this the better play.

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
Fear of the Weak Tight label strikes again. Flat calling down the turn and river is the best line here. You spend the same 2 BB's and -

1 - keep the worse hand in when you're ahead.
2 - give yourself a chance to catch the longshot 2 outer when behind.
3 - avoid giving too much action or being outplayed.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. No worse hand is folding, so that should read, 'you miss value against a worse hand'

2. meh, 2 outs.

3. gave the same amount of action you want to and no way is jenniwhatever going to 3 bet bluff AQ

[Michael Emery]

[ QUOTE ]
dont like that turn raise, call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
1 - keep the worse hand in when you're ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
1. No worse hand is folding, so that should read, 'you miss value against a worse hand'

[/ QUOTE ]

You're saying the missing value is because the villain wouldn't fold a worse hand (JJ) to his turn raise, even though the OP did and folded KK?

Everytime the villain would call the turn raise and pay off the river with a worse hand, but only 3 bet a better one, and the OP and can be positively assured that's there's no margin for error there?

[Ray Zee]

you and sa125 are correct here. multible betting and folding is about the worst play a person can make in holdem. what if she got a bug and decided to raise one more time with ace king. what a disaster for you to fold here. and what if you had the same hand.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"with AQ being the most likely."

But if this is true, then folding is obviously wrong. The problem I see is that for this to be true, we have to assume that jennicide is making no effort to read your hand, as you cannot possibly have a hand worse than AQ at this point in the action.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he means that is her hand range when she leads the turn, his turn range will then almost perfectly for hero sperate her hand range.

I'd rather 'raise the river to save bets' spicyf style.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I like the raise/fold-turn line less and less and less whereas the SpicyF line is much better at punishing overaggression.

[sfer]

LMD, it appears that you're a failure at quitting.

Love,
Daver

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]

You're saying the missing value is because the villain wouldn't fold a worse hand (JJ) to his turn raise, even though the OP did and folded KK?

[/ QUOTE ]

JJ isn't in here turn hand range. I am saying she will not fold AQ.

I think the OP can be very sure there isn't any error here since her hand range splits so nicely. Say AQ AA QQ TT. QQ TT are of course def def raising, and AQ is def def not reraising. Whatever AA does it doesn't matter. If it calls you still have a correct value bet on the river, if it raises that even better.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
JJ isn't in here turn hand range. I am saying she will not fold AQ.

I think the OP can be very sure there isn't any error here since her hand range splits so nicely. Say AQ AA QQ TT. QQ TT are of course def def raising, and AQ is def def not reraising. Whatever AA does it doesn't matter. If it calls you still have a correct value bet on the river, if it raises that even better.

[/ QUOTE ]

I initially had (AQ-JJ) as the example of a worse hand, but removed AQ because I was a little confused as to the initial point you were making. This spells it out pretty good though.

[elindauer]

Without doing any in-depth math, I'd predict that this fold should be an extremely rare event from a game threory perspective. You'd need a read that the villain is very passive to justify folding. Is this the case? You tell me. If my high limit experience is any indication, the answer is probably no.

-Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
I seem to be by myself here, but I like the way he played it. He gets good value when he's ahead and I don't think she's three-betting a hand he's ever ahead of here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm surprised to see peple say this against a high stakes player. Every time you folod to a turn 3-bet, you encourage your opponents to 3-bet you next time with a hand that is either drawing or which they were planning to call down anyways.

To me, there is no concept of "they won't 3-bet a worse hand". If you fold, then they will.

-Eric