I Play One Fast and Hard (Sorry For the Spam)

[toss]

Villain is 12.3/9.9/6.33 with a SD rate of 37 over 200 hands. He's a pretty damn aggr. blind stealer.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP3 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>...

[BWebb]

Not sure I like the flop 3-bet. Another spade on the turn kills you and you won't be able to make him fold the turn with any spade with the line you took. I think I call and donkbet the turn if no spade comes.

VPIP of 12 ... I hope you fold to a raise. You're spewing chips, no? If he just calls, I don't see him folding to a river bet. If it worked, good fortune for you .. had the old AK/AQ afterall.

Also, does that 6.33 include pre-flop? How do you conclude he's a blind stealer with VPIP that low?

[toss]

I've seen him raise light on the CO and Button. Like any ace.

He's in neither now though, right (edit: post says 9 handed &amp; MP3, but I see 8 players ... I guess he is CO then...)? The VPIP of 12 scares me in this one. Maybe I'm putting too much stock in it, but I tread lightly and pick a better spot. I like the line I hinted above. I'm folding to a raise, and I'm checking the river. If your read says he's a turd, then call his autobet river. If not, then fold unimproved.

I hope you caught your 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[Nick C]

I feel like my only defense against guys who are this aggressive is to show down the better hand. I mean, there may be some point at which they'll fold a better ace-high, but I'm not likely to push hard enough to reach it.

Anyway, on the flop, if Villain's got as much as A /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, he's the favorite. At the same time, a flop 3-bet/turn lead line is less awkward than a stop-n-go and also seems like less of an invitation for another raise. But maybe against this guy you want to invite another raise. (You're not folding, are you?)

In any event, you managed to get Villain to make one of his rare calls on the flop. That's got to be a victory of sorts.

[private joker]

Interesting that you post this hand, Toss, because just today I read a Byron Jacobs article in CardPlayer about SB defense against an aggressive stealer. He recommends folding small pairs like this, not 3-betting:

"As your pair deteriorates below 88, there becomes a point at which you don't really want to be 3-betting... Once you drop down to 33, the dynamics of the situation change. It is almost impossible for you to be a solid favorite, and you are now slightly more likely to be a big underdog to a higher pair. In principle, you are about a 55 to 45 percent favorite against his most likely holding -- two random overcards -- but you are out of position and he is a skillful player [I'm guessing from those stats, 12/10/6, 37 WTSD, that he's pretty TAG and not bad post-flop].

"This is not a great situation to be in unless you are fortunate enough to flop a set. Much of the time, he is going to give you heat on the flop or turn, and you will be playing guessing games. Occasionally he will have absolutely nothing and fold -- but then you won't be making any money. [But] you are going to be obliged to pay him off quite often. Playing a tiny pair out of position against a skilled player is just not a profitable proposition.

"So can you call preflop instead? No. This doesn't work, either. [The BB is likely to call getting 5:1]... Your chance of flopping a set is 7.5:1, which is obviously insufficient, and with just two opponents, the implied odds are terrible. It is best to fold.

An interesting questions is at what point does your small pair become a fold rather than a reraise here? I would say that 66 is about borderline against a moderately aggressive steal-raiser."

Jacobs makes a great argument and I am convinced. Fold preflop.

[toss]

The thing about being only a 55% favorite only applies to all-in situations. Villain is going to have two overcards often and I'm going to have a pair. 67% of the time he'll miss the flop. He peels the flop for 6 outs and he'll often fold to a turn bet. Sometimes he'll fold a hand like 55 or 66 if the flop comes paint or Ace. I'm not convinced yet that I should fold 66 and lower here.

Postflop however I now think I should've just given up. If villain can be ahead so easily and I'll have to fire on the turn and the river. I probably should have folded to the flop raise since calling the flop raise and donking the turn will get my ass raised so many times. Theres also call/call/call, but thats an expensive calldown.

[Nick Royale]

Pohl also mention in his articles that low pairs isn't good to defend your SB with since they become tricky to play postflop.

I re-raise 66 and above in this case.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing about being only a 55% favorite only applies to all-in situations. Villain is going to have two overcards often and I'm going to have a pair. 67% of the time he'll miss the flop. He peels the flop for 6 outs and he'll often fold to a turn bet. Sometimes he'll fold a hand like 55 or 66 if the flop comes paint or Ace. I'm not convinced yet that I should fold 66 and lower here.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're ignoring the times he doesn't flop a pair but flops enough of a draw to stick around to the river, wherein he might catch a pair and call you.

A hand like JTs is a favorite over 44. If he doesn't flop a J or a T, he could flop an OESD, a gutshot, a 4-flush, or with JTo even a monotone flop with a J-high flush draw. So don't think about the all-in necessity of those numbers. The numbers indicate how likely you actually are to have your hand hold up.

[hobbsmann]

Another important argument against this thinking is that by 3-betting, even though we don't have much chance for improvement, we will induce a lot of FTOP errors when our opponent will incorrectly fold a 6 outer against us.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
Another important argument against this thinking is that by 3-betting, even though we don't have much chance for improvement, we will induce a lot of FTOP errors when our opponent will incorrectly fold a 6 outer against us.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but I think you're overvaluing how important this is for us. Beginning the hand, we've invested 1/3 or 2/5 or whatever of a SB in our small blind, and the opponent has invested 2SBs. Why start fighting over a small pot with reasoning like this, when in fact a lot of things have to go right for us to win the pot? I think there might be a good argument for 3-betting this hand from the BB in steal situations, but from the SB? Just give up the pennies and move on, I say.

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Another important argument against this thinking is that by 3-betting, even though we don't have much chance for improvement, we will induce a lot of FTOP errors when our opponent will incorrectly fold a 6 outer against us.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but I think you're overvaluing how important this is for us. Beginning the hand, we've invested 1/3 or 2/5 or whatever of a SB in our small blind, and the opponent has invested 2SBs. Why start fighting over a small pot with reasoning like this, when in fact a lot of things have to go right for us to win the pot? I think there might be a good argument for 3-betting this hand from the BB in steal situations, but from the SB? Just give up the pennies and move on, I say.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm still not convinced one way or the other, but just wanted to bring up some counter points to the just fold option.

I fold this one preflop (12% VPIP!!!). Then I fold it again on the flop. Then I fold it again on the turn.

I swear the biggest leak that pokertracker has caused me is overdefending my blinds (especially smallblind)
You see that someone is "stealing" a big percentage and you just know that your small pair is better than that AXo he has preflop. Gee, it turns out that his X was top pair on flop and the suit of his Ace gave him a backdoor flush and the next thing you know you've lost 10 bets "defending" your blind because you just know it was the best hand preflop.