i got capped

[TStoneMBD]

3 handed 15/30 game

button is an aggressive player and probably good. i dont recall him ever capping with trash or capping at all for that matter.

BT opens, I 3bet A7s in the SB, BT caps I call

flop is A65 2 clubs not my suit

i check and call

turn is 3d

i check and call

river is Kd

i check

[Spicymoose]

Lets put button on TT+, ATs+, AJo+, KJs+, KQ. You are behind pretty far behind 27 hands, pretty way ahead of 24 hands that may continue if you show agression, and way ahead of 20 hands that will fold to any of your agression. I like the call down. If the K wouldn't of hit on the river, I think I might want to bet this. Folding to a raise would be tough, but I think it would also be correct.

Interesting hand. Normally I do something stupid like check raise this flop I think.

I think it's close between bet/folding and check/calling, but I would check/call.

I think C/C or B/F is cool.

[Spicymoose]

Since against the higher A hands, what you do is virtually meaningless, the river decision comes down to how he plays his PP and K hands.

I assume almost all PP are checking behind here. Since the kings are just about equally as likely as the pocket pairs, you have to ask yourself if you think he is twice as likely to bet with his kings as he is to call with the sum of kings and PP hands. I think this is close. PPs are calling pretty rarely here, so really the bulk of it boils down to whether he will call more with his kings, or if he will bet more with his kings if checked to.

I'm guessing that inducing may work better.

[TStoneMBD]

i think his capping range is larger than that. if its the range you give him then hes not capping nearly enough.

[Spicymoose]

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i think his capping range is larger than that. if its the range you give him then hes not capping nearly enough.

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I figured it was a pretty tight capping range, but given that you said:

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i dont recall him ever capping with trash or capping at all for that matter.

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And the fact that it was a 3-handed game, I figured he was a pretty tight capper. 3-handed play goes really quick, and if you had been playing for a while, and still hadn't seen him cap, that could mean something (could also mean he is card dead). How long had you been playing when this hand popped up?

[TStoneMBD]

i havent played with him much and wasnt at the table for that long... ive played with him in the past and dont remember much but i recognize him as a probable good player.

[Spicymoose]

New analysis with a better capping range. This time lets assume he caps with A9s+, AJo+ (even TStoneMBD didn't cap with ATo!), KTs+, KJo+, QJs+, 77+. Is this still too tight? I was trying to give him a bit more credit, but I think it is obvious that he isn't a liberal capper.

Back to the analysis. You are pretty far behind 29 of his A hands, really far ahead of 40 of his K or Q hands that will fold to agression, and very far ahead of his 39 of his pair hands. You know what? Considering the As don't matter once again, and the ratio of K hands to pair hands is about the same, I don't think my analysis changes. The only difference is the possibility of a few non paired hands that are folding to any bet, but almost never bluffing if you check.

Oh, one thing I forgot before is that the K hands are less likely to fire again on the turn, but only slightly, given that this is an agressive game. Therefore his relative number of pairs goes up, but not all that much. As long as the likelyhood of K hands and paired hands remain roughly the same, the question really is in how this opponent plays the river.

If he is likely to valuebet with K, which I think most people are, and if he will fold his pairs if you bet (but maybe call with his king), I think inducing remains the best play.

[Alobar]

I play it the same

[sthief09]

you could probably fold. i dont see him value betting a K unless hes really aggro and if youve never seen him cap preflop id assume hes not all that aggro

[Spicymoose]

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you could probably fold. i dont see him value betting a K unless hes really aggro and if youve never seen him cap preflop id assume hes not all that aggro

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We need to be good 1 in 9 for this call to be good. That would mean that since he has somewhere around 30 combos of A, 40 combos of pairs, 40 combos of kings, that he only has to try to bet with the non aces 5% of the time. I think he bets with these hands quite a bit more then that.

My range might be off a bit, but not too off, and even if it is, I think he bets these hands quite a bit more then 5%.