Clueless with blind offense with T3o

[Spicymoose]

Villain is 12/11/1.75 after 65.

What do you think?

I think my biggest mistake may have been not calling the river. I am not sure though.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (9 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10 BB

[kross]

I'm guessing the only reason you called the turn raise is because you picked up a flush draw? If that's the case, then the fold on the river seems fine, since you missed your draw.

However, if you called the raise because you thought your 3's might be good, then you need to call the river.

But, given the villain's stats, and his actions, it really looks like your 3's are no good. Do you think he raises the turn with UI AK? AK with the A/images/graemlins/club.gif maybe? Possible, but not all that likely.

[aba20]

I think your biggest mistake was preflop. I wouldn't go after this guy with this hand. Ya he is tight but T3o is horrible and even tight players will start to play back at you if you raise them everytime. I would raise the top 85% of my hands though.

[kross]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your biggest mistake was preflop. I wouldn't go after this guy with this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I completely agree, I disregarded that in my first reply. Especially since you're the SB, in a 1/3 blind structure. Just let it go. With those stats, he isn't stealing, he has a real hand.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
Ya he is tight but T3o is horrible and even tight players will start to play back at you if you raise them everytime. I would raise the top 85% of my hands though.

[/ QUOTE ]

T3o is in the top 85%, so you are kinda contradicting yourself.

I guess the 1/3 blind structure does kinda suck though. I just had fresh in my mind all the posts about instant profit raising 23o if he folds more then 50% of the time, but realize that with 1/3 structure, you need them to fold more for an instant profit.

Regardless though, I think this steal might be ok.

[aba20]

Yes you are correct that T3o is in the top 85% in terms of preflop equity, but this isn't a poker stove calculation. Just because T3o is a better hand than 76s doesn't mean that I want to play it over the 76s. You need to have a little feel for these types of things in terms of playability and not just in preflop equity. In terms of playability T3o is in the bottom 15% of hands.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes you are correct that T3o is in the top 85% in terms of preflop equity, but this isn't a poker stove calculation. Just because T3o is a better hand than 76s doesn't mean that I want to play it over the 76s. You need to have a little feel for these types of things in terms of playability and not just in preflop equity. In terms of playability T3o is in the bottom 15% of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

T2o,94o-92o,84o-82o,74o-72o,63o-62o,53o-52o,42o+,32o comprise 15% of all hands. They are also the 15% that PokerStove rates as the worst. Please tell me which one you choose to steal with here over T3o. I know this is kinda silly, as the 85% was just kinda a guestimate, and nowhere near exact, but I do think that T3o is included in the top 85%.

[aba20]

Are kidding me we are talking about 1%? Ok fine T2o is in the bottom 15% then I should have said bottom 16% to include T3o. The point I was making was that you don't want to take a hand against a guy who might, like in this case, play back at you. He is very tight which is a good reason to attack his blind, but you don't want to go after him with a hand which is totally unplayable.

[LImitPlayer]

Let it go and fold pf, 103 isn't exactly a monster, pick a better spot and save your money

[TStoneMBD]

i like your thought process preflop in that BB seems very tight so a raise should be profitable, but its such a small sample size that its far more likely he was card dead in those 60 hands than him actually being that tight.

also, i dont like the flop checkraisee. checkcall. rest looks good.

[silencio]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing the only reason you called the turn raise is because you picked up a flush draw? If that's the case, then the fold on the river seems fine, since you missed your draw.

However, if you called the raise because you thought your 3's might be good, then you need to call the river.

But, given the villain's stats, and his actions, it really looks like your 3's are no good. Do you think he raises the turn with UI AK? AK with the A/images/graemlins/club.gif maybe? Possible, but not all that likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he called the raise because he had pot odds for two pair/trips.

[imported_leader]

I think you put way too any bets in against this guy. His raise means something. I would c/c the flop in hopes of hitting the turn. I would c/c the turn in hope that I hit the river or he checks though. At that point the pot would be 4.5 BB. I would fold to a river bet getting 5.5-1.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
also, i dont like the flop checkraisee. checkcall. rest looks good.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you advocating after the check call if I never improve, but blanks fall? Check call all the way down? Fold if an ace hits?

To leader, you are advocating c/c, c/c, c/f if I don't improve? Doesn't he fire with his big aces often enough on the river for me to maybe call there?

[ArturiusX]

Everyones nitting preflop, yeah, small sample, but you did what you did and its probably not bad.

Post flop, once you get 3-bet, you need to a decent hand to win. Check-call the flop, check-fold the turn if you dont improve.

[TStoneMBD]

[ QUOTE ]
What are you advocating after the check call if I never improve, but blanks fall? Check call all the way down? Fold if an ace hits?

[/ QUOTE ]

yah i like this line, but im open to suggestions. i really hate these situations because you end up feeling like a slot machine after the hand.

[sweetjazz]

Isn't villain betting with UI high cards on the flop and turn pretty often here, especially if he has a high club? Plus he sometimes has a made hand but no clubs. All in all, I think we need to check/call the turn and see the river after check/calling the flop.

The river decision is close, but check/folding is probably best. This is one of those rare times, though, that I would advocate calling on the river if you think you are odds of being good are slightly less than the pot odds, because seeing villain's hand can give us useful information regarding future blind steals. (Of course, it also reveals to him that we were raising any two cards, so that limits the usefulness of the information, since we give away quite a bit here.)

BTW, I think that folding T3o preflop is best even if you think that it's probably a slightly +EV move (because of fold equity). This is because folding this trashy hand here may very well build your fold equity in future blind steal attempts. So this would be an example of giving up a small edge now because you believe you will get a bigger edge later. This assumes that you have reason to believe that your opponent is somewhat observant and will handle a fold-then-raise sequence of blind steals more tightly than a raise-then-raise sequence of blind steals.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't villain betting with UI high cards on the flop and turn pretty often here, especially if he has a high club? Plus he sometimes has a made hand but no clubs. All in all, I think we need to check/call the turn and see the river after check/calling the flop.

The river decision is close, but check/folding is probably best. This is one of those rare times, though, that I would advocate calling on the river if you think you are odds of being good are slightly less than the pot odds, because seeing villain's hand can give us useful information regarding future blind steals. (Of course, it also reveals to him that we were raising any two cards, so that limits the usefulness of the information, since we give away quite a bit here.)

BTW, I think that folding T3o preflop is best even if you think that it's probably a slightly +EV move (because of fold equity). This is because folding this trashy hand here may very well build your fold equity in future blind steal attempts. So this would be an example of giving up a small edge now because you believe you will get a bigger edge later. This assumes that you have reason to believe that your opponent is somewhat observant and will handle a fold-then-raise sequence of blind steals more tightly than a raise-then-raise sequence of blind steals.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great analysis. I like the two idea you present about taking slight equity hits now to build up future equity.

[TStoneMBD]

yah i also like this analysis nice job