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11-23-2005, 06:10 PM
Hi,
Thank you for any help in advance. I found this in the Small Stakes Hold-em forum Re: Never Draw to an Inside Straight.

"Suited Max Stretch 1-Gap (QT-53)
0.84% flop a flush
0.92% flop straight w/o 3 flush board
10.94% flop 4 flush
5.29% flop clean 8 out straight draw
1.85% flop clean 2 pair
1.45% flop trips or full house or 4 of a kind
21.29% = 3.70 to 1 against"

That really opened my eyes up. And I've been playing poker and reading poker books for 20 years. Doh!

I'd like to figure out (so I can factor in) the additional possibility of flopping a pair and a clean straight draw, and a pair and a flush draw (I realize there is a danger of overlap there).

I have only a sketchy idea of how to calculate the additional pair and straight and pair and flush draw, and I guess the pair and straight-flush draw as well. Plus I know I will also be bogged down trying to figure out how not to overlap.

I have read Re: Odds to flop a draw ***AGREEMENT*** http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/show...amp;o=&vc=1 (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=355216&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1)

And I don't understand "All two flushes are easy C(11,2)*C(39,1)/19600 = 10.94% and agrees with H'eA." I know this is somewhat incorrect as stated in the post but aside from that, how do I handle C(11,2)*C(39,1)? What is the value of C, and how do I handle (resolve/plug in) the numbers with the comma between them? I realize they represent the cards, but the math eludes me. In also not sure what 19,600 represents.

[ 3*(15*34 + 1*27 + 2*6*4) + 4*4*4*2 - 2 ] / C(50,3) = 9.60% would be easy if I knew what to do with C(50,3). At least easy to do the math. I have to study this one to see how it was arrived at (I will follow the links in that post to try to see how it was done). I am also assuming the * is the multiplication sign.

If anyone can help me by showing the equation to use to figure out my pair/straight/flush/straight-flush draw I would certainly appreciate it. If you can point me to links that will show me how to do it myself, I will certainly appreciate that as well. I also need to know how to fit it in with the other data so as not to overlap. Any explanation of how the equation was arrived at would be a bonus (if no link exists).

I once calculated, using what I think was set theory, that making a runner-runner straight was about 18.5-1. That looked reasonable since a backdoor flush is 25-1. I've since forgotten how I did that =/ Still, I had to work on that one for a few days, and I hope I got it right. I don't mind doing these things myself, but I see I need to read much more to understand. Is there a book that specifically deals with figuring out poker probabilities? Or one that would use little words /images/graemlins/smile.gif so I could try to figure it out myself? Again, I thank you in advance.

11-23-2005, 08:02 PM
In looking at this it seems a pair and straight-flush draw is redundant since that would be a possibility already covered by the flush draw. Although I would certainly like to see how my problem would be solved, it seems incorporating flopping a pair along with the clean straight and the flush draw would give a solution as well, but I don't know if that would be less tedious. Oh well.

11-24-2005, 04:28 AM
Okay, I see I will need to learn calculus, etc., to get the most out of this site and some of the books are already being shipped. I also now see that backdoor straights probably have different probabilities. You holding JT where the flop contains a 237 can only be made if you catch a 9 and 8, or an 8 and a 9. With the same JT and a flop of 239 you can backdoor if you catch an 8 and then a 7 or Q, or a Q and then either a K or an 8. Of course if you catch a K or 7 first then you must catch the specific rank that completes the straight. But it seems one has more chances with JT9. If I'm wrong please feel free to chuckle, or even guffaw.

As for my original question, perhaps it would be better to wait until I learn what is needed, though semi-enlightenment will be appreciated.