$109s - AQ River Snap?

[Unarmed]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

CO (t1195)
Button (t975)
SB (t925)
BB (t1025)
UTG (t940)
UTG+1 (t1000)
UTG+2 (t1000)
MP1 (t940)
Hero (t1000)
MP3 (t1000)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t60</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls t45.

Flop: (t142.50) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t142.50) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.

River: (t142.50) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets t125</font>, Hero ???

[durron597]

I pretty much always bet this turn.

[ilya]

do you have any history with this player? does the average 109er make the call on the river with Ace-high? i think it all comes down to whether he thinks that you think that he thinks you almost certainly have just Ace-high. if that's the average level of thinking for a 109er then I'd probably fold, but if you think he just thinks you have Ace-high, then I'd call. i'd also call if you think that he thinks that you think that he thinks you have Ace-high, but will fold to a bet because you think that he wouldn't bluff there knowing that you think that he thinks you have Ace-high.

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

P.S. I would fold here because for some reason I really think he has a set of 2s.

I also will usually bet the turn here. As for the river, it feels like every time I talk myself into calling one of these bets I lose. I play the 55's so that's a bit different but same ballpark anyhow.

[tigerite]

I'd fold the river for sure here.

[Irieguy]

The reason you check the turn is to get him to bet 90-140 chips on the river... right?

Nice work.

You raise, he folds. You think "I am the greatest SNG player alive. I sincerely feel sorry for these poor folks. I wonder if I should stay in Thailand for 1 or 2 months."

Irieguy

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason you check the turn is to get him to bet 90-140 chips on the river... right?

Nice work.

You raise, he folds. You think "I am the greatest SNG player alive. I sincerely feel sorry for these poor folks. I wonder if I should stay in Thailand for 1 or 2 months."

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you raising rather than calling? To avoid a showdown?

[Bonafone]

Hero folds.

I fire about 75-100 at the flop about 85% of the time, but if I don't bet the flop then I definately bet around 100 on the turn when checked to.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason you check the turn is to get him to bet 90-140 chips on the river... right?


[/ QUOTE ]

Ya that and:

- I don't mind taking a free card with 10 winning outs.
- My flop check loosens his turn calling range up enough that I don't think I have enough FE over hands I'm actually behind to bother betting.

Add em all up and its an easy chck?

Does your flop check really loosen his turn call range that much? I could see many hands folding the turn that are ahead of you myself, maybe I really am too weak-tight? Then again maybe I'm too predictable. In a spot like this I usually figure my opponent has checked twice so he wants to give me the pot, I have pretty much crap myself and with that draw heavy board if he wants to give me the pot now then I'll gladly take it.

[jeffraider]

I think this is a pretty easy fold. What hands does he limp then call your raise with out of position that you're snapping off? KQ? A9? Everything else he may have has you beat. Of course there's random donk factor, which I think is less here than at the $22s, but still, there's five cards out there that he could have weakly connected with. I think folding is best here, raising is next and calling is the worst option.

Semi-bluffing the turn is best I think, because there aren't many hands you're beating no matter what the river is so I don't like inducing a bluff here.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The reason you check the turn is to get him to bet 90-140 chips on the river... right?


[/ QUOTE ]

Ya that and:

- I don't mind taking a free card with 10 winning outs.
- My flop check loosens his turn calling range up enough that I don't think I have enough FE over hands I'm actually behind to bother betting.

Add em all up and its an easy chck?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you have to be pretty sure he'd bluff at it on the river. Otherwise you are just giving away free cards.

Also, if he has a draw like xxh, A9 or KQ, you might as well value bet the turn before you both miss.

Maybe your flop check encourages crap like 55 to call you on the turn, but if you check then turn and call the river, it's costing you the same anyway.

I'm not saying a check is wrong. It's just not clear to me without a read. Keep in mind that I'm very rusty.

[Annulus]

Everyone is saying they would definitly bet the turn, but why not bet the flop? Please fill me in here guys. Am I that much out of the loop where the continuation bet on the flop is outdated?

Also, if you are not going to bet the flop or the turn I think this is a pretty standard fold on the river. There is a very good chance he has you beat and trying to make him fold just seems too risky.

[jeffraider]

Betting flops is no longer 1.4. The new cool style is to call any size flop bet, "play poker on the turn" by minbetting and then hopefully calling any sized river bet except for exactly 2/3s of the pot which is clearly an unbeatable game theory bet.

No seriously I have no idea, I'd bet this flop a lot. The only thing I can think of is that Unarmed simply can not fire at every flop that's not terrible for him after he raises preflop, and has to mix things up. It's also possible that it's leaving him too open to exploitation considering his tougher competition.

[mosdef]

Betting the flop as a continuation bet is a nice, straightforward way to make money in the long run. Checking the flop and playing the turn and river extremely well is probably more profitable, but with the caveat that if you screw up the turn and river you've turned a winning line into a losing line.

Playing the turn and river well enough to do better than you can by betting the flop is hard. That's why posts like this are valuable. They introduce to you the possibility of turning a standard profitable line into an even better, more profitable line.

[tigerite]

They pick up more on cont bets at the $109s, and often times raise you. Here Unarmed would be raised by a flush draw, straight draw, J, a lot of pairs, and occasionally air. Not a nice situation to be in with A high.

[mosdef]

[ QUOTE ]
They pick up more on cont bets at the $109s, and often times raise you. Here Unarmed would be raised by a flush draw, straight draw, J, a lot of pairs, and occasionally air. Not a nice situation to be in with A high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, but a c-bet would probably still "work" i.e. be +EV, just not as +EV as checking and playing well thereafter.

One could probably say the same about the turn.

[Annulus]

I understand where you are coming from. But in this situation I don't think trying to build a pot on the turn and river with Ace high is a good idea, even for a savvy player. I still think if you are going to fire a shot (cont. bet) that betting the flop in this situation is better than betting at the turn. Whats so appealing about betting the turn?

[mosdef]

[ QUOTE ]
Whats so appealing about betting the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I'll leave it to the "bet the turn" guys to answer this one. As I noted above, I'm not against checking the turn.

I think the turn screams for you to bet. I have no problem with betting the flop though checking is fine too but you gotta bet that turn. Not to build a pot but to take it down. JMO

[raptor517]

bet flop bet turn shove river ship it hollla

Succinct. I like your style.

I wonder if you're up to 32 tabling yet.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
Succinct. I like your style.

I wonder if you're up to 32 tabling yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually im just 6 tabling lately trying to play 50% of my hands lvls 1-3. its fun. holla