Live pre-flop and turn decision with 10s

[PieInTheSky]

20-40 live game. The villian in this hand is a somewhat loose (cold-calls pre-flop too much) aggressive player. His three bet range in this situation would be pocket pairs 88-AA, also AK, AQ, and maybe AJ. He is not overly tricky and generally likes to get to showdown cheaply if he is unsure of where he stands but will raise on the big streets if he believes he is ahead.

Folded to hijack who raises, the villian 3 bets from the button, i call in the big blind with black 10s.

Flop is 7 high with two spades, i check-raise and eliminate the original raiser, the button calls. Turn is a brick, i lead out, villian raises and i fold.

Though the possibility of semi-bluff is there with the two spades on board i felt safe folding against this opponent. Two questions: (1)am i fighting an uphill battle trying to squeeze out value from 10s in this situation (i.e., is folding pre-flop the best option) and (2) given the presence of the flush draw on board would i be better off checking and calling the turn and river to avoid getting bluffed against aggressive opponents.

Thanks in advance,

PITS

[lil feller]

If the board were 9 high I'd say this was a strong fold, but 7 high changes things. Your c/r on the flop says "I have a pair and want to protect it". His turn raise says "I know you have a pair and I either want to try and hit my AK of spades or I have a pair too and think its bigger than yours."

If the board is 9 high, you can pretty much assume you're toast here, but wouldn't he play 88 or 99 the same way? If he could only have a pocket pair 88's or bigger you're in front something like 38% of the time (admittedly not a math guy, but there are 12 ways for 8's or 9's, 18 for A's, K's or Q's right? If this is wrong please light me up). You're getting 4.5:1 to call the turn bet and a river bet so you only need to be good 18% of the time to make calling correct (again by my not so skilled mathmatical assesment). This does'nt factor in the times he gets out of line w/ A-big of spades, since he probably wouldn't do that everytime, and I don't know how to do that kind of EV math.

I really hope somebody responds to this, this sort of calculation is a big hole in my game.

lf

[jayheaps]

alot depends on the hijacks raising standards. if he is loose than the Villians 3bet standards are much less than you indicated.

Given that, I likely call here and check call the river. I have to think he 3bets an overpair here on the flop. he raise could be just to make you pay for a flush draw.

PREFLOP: Standard. With a discount in the BB in this steal/resteal situation, TT is definitely strong enough to get involved. FLOP: Standard, Good checkraise to get this HU. TURN: I really do not like your decision here. The villain can have many hands here that you are still ahead of like AsKs,AsQs,AsJs,AsTs,KsQs,99,88 or some other BS that doesnt make sense. Given the pot odds, this is a must call down. Another thing you should consider is what the villain puts you on. He saw you just call preflop(meaning your hand is not THAT strong) and he saw you checkraise for elimination on a rag flop which also shows you dont have a very strong hand, so if the villain is paying attention he should know you are not in love with your holding, which may increase the probability of him bluff/semibluff raising this turn. Another thing to point out here is that if the villain would never semibluff this turn but instead would only raise this turn with 88,99,TT,JJ,QQ,KK,AA, you are still only a 2-1 underdog, and youre getting 4.75-1 to call down which makes calling down a very profitable strategy. I hope I have convinced you that folding the turn is out of the question. Nice post, Good luck in the future.

You cant fold this turn IMO.

The others have listed why, and Im just want to say I am in full agreeance that folding this turn is a grievous error.


GL


Tex