Family pot, PPs

[Spicymoose]

Everyone limps around to you on the BB. Everyone at the table is pretty loose, with VPIPs around 35, 50, 40, and so on. A few of the people are a bit agressive, and others are really passive. Noone is a maniac though.

What is the lowest PP that you raise from the BB?


Arguments for and against raising here?

[stigmata]

TT is a raise.
99 depends, usually i just check.
88 is a check, we have a pretty average preflop equity in this situation.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]

88 is a check, we have a pretty average preflop equity in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty average equity currently, yes. Let us assume you had a hand with exactly neutral equity (you had 1/6 share of it). Raising may be EV neutral for that street, but it certainly changes what happens postflop quite dramatically.

[stigmata]

I think with 88 it makes it more difficult to play, esp. OOP against a bunch of calling stations.

[Stinkybeaver]

I'm just completing anything below TT simply because of position.

[pleyya]

I dont have the numbers to back this up right now but i definately raise 99 for EV probably 88 to. I think both these hands are +EV against 5 other loose hands if you add up set value and chance of winning unimproved

[Spicymoose]

Well, I had a hand today where I raised 77 from the BB. My rational was that although I was taking a slight EV hit preflop, I would make it up postflop when I hit my set.

If we were to assume that our opponents each had the top 40% of hands, which is probably giving them too much credit, as the top 10% or so they probably don't have, as they would have raised preflop, then our 77 has 20% equity! (I ran the numbers again with a more reasonable range, and I pulled out 21% equity). Even 22 has 18%, which is more than the required 16.6%. Now, this equity is hot cold, so given that we will give up on many flops, we don't always realize our full equity. So, in reality, considering we are folding many flops, we don't truly have as much equity as listed above, but we do have a decent amount.

So, lets assume that we never win with out hitting our set on the flop. This isn't quite true, but I am trying to give a worst case here. Let us also assume that all of our equity outlined by PokerStove is from when we hit a 7. We have to fold on the flop 88% of the time, but, since we have 2 outs twice, we only would improve after the flop 8% of the time. This means that out of PokerStoves hot/cold equity, .12 comes from when our 7 comes on the flop, and .7 of it comes from when, or in other words about we miss out on about 1/3 of our preflop hot/cold equity by folding on the flop without our set. This means that our new equity of preflop bets is about 13%. So, when we raise preflop, we are putting in 16.6% of the money, but only retrieving about 13%. That means we have a 3.6% loss on our bet we put in. So, raising preflop has a immediate -EV of .02 BB.

So, we have established using a few assumptions (which I feel are pretty reasonable, if they are a bit off, my numbers still wouldn't be drastically different), that our we lose .02 BB by raising preflop with 77. The question now becomes, can we make that up postflop?

I think the difference between playing in an unraised pot with your set, and a raised flop with your set is quite different. People will be peeling with far more, and you will have a significant edge with your set. Granted, you will get sucked out on a bit more, but I think you will be collecting bets from people drawing dead, people with a few outs, and even people with strong draws. Since the pot is big, people have more incentive to stay in with what they think is the correct number of outs, but in fact they will be completely wrong, and be losing money. I think we easily make up any preflop loss of bets postflop.

[ghostface]

Just wait for flawless_victory to answer.

I would probably raise 1010+. I think its hard to play a hand like 66 postflop if you dont hit a set. But I might just be afraid of variance since we definately have equity to raise.

[destro]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I had a hand today where I raised 77 from the BB. My rational was that although I was taking a slight EV hit preflop, I would make it up postflop when I hit my set.

If we were to assume that our opponents each had the top 40% of hands, which is probably giving them too much credit, as the top 10% or so they probably don't have, as they would have raised preflop, then our 77 has 20% equity! (I ran the numbers again with a more reasonable range, and I pulled out 21% equity). Even 22 has 18%, which is more than the required 16.6%. Now, this equity is hot cold, so given that we will give up on many flops, we don't always realize our full equity. So, in reality, considering we are folding many flops, we don't truly have as much equity as listed above, but we do have a decent amount.

So, lets assume that we never win with out hitting our set on the flop. This isn't quite true, but I am trying to give a worst case here. Let us also assume that all of our equity outlined by PokerStove is from when we hit a 7. We have to fold on the flop 88% of the time, but, since we have 2 outs twice, we only would improve after the flop 8% of the time. This means that out of PokerStoves hot/cold equity, .12 comes from when our 7 comes on the flop, and .7 of it comes from when, or in other words about we miss out on about 1/3 of our preflop hot/cold equity by folding on the flop without our set. This means that our new equity of preflop bets is about 13%. So, when we raise preflop, we are putting in 16.6% of the money, but only retrieving about 13%. That means we have a 3.6% loss on our bet we put in. So, raising preflop has a immediate -EV of .02 BB.

So, we have established using a few assumptions (which I feel are pretty reasonable, if they are a bit off, my numbers still wouldn't be drastically different), that our we lose .02 BB by raising preflop with 77. The question now becomes, can we make that up postflop?

I think the difference between playing in an unraised pot with your set, and a raised flop with your set is quite different. People will be peeling with far more, and you will have a significant edge with your set. Granted, you will get sucked out on a bit more, but I think you will be collecting bets from people drawing dead, people with a few outs, and even people with strong draws. Since the pot is big, people have more incentive to stay in with what they think is the correct number of outs, but in fact they will be completely wrong, and be losing money. I think we easily make up any preflop loss of bets postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

For this reason ( raising for implied odds with set ) I would raise 77 down to 22 with the same frequency. They are pretty much the same hand in this spot.

I once got grilled when I raised 22 from the SB with 8 limpers at a full ring game. They told me I was crazy for thinking that it would hold up against so many opponents! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Spicymoose]

Does anyone else find this interesting, or not really? Is this a super easy check with the low pocket pairs, or a super easy raise, or is it close? I don´t buy that it doesn´t matter, as the situation is pretty different one way or the other. I am of the opinion that raising preflop is best, possibly even with 22 (although I am less sure of doing it with 22 then with 77), although I imagine I could be swayed towards checking if someone brought up something that I am not thinking about.

I hate having to bump my own threads to get replies, but it seems like every time I post something which I find interesting/odd, and include my own reply, I turn everyone else off from replying. Is it something in the way I am posting, or is this situation just pretty boring?

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
Just wait for flawless_victory to answer.

[/ QUOTE ]
RAISE.

You dont have equity until 66 imo. I think that if you are on the button with loose players in the blinds you should raise 77 since you can take a free card on the flop for one more chance to hit frequently. If you are in the blinds I think you need 88-99.

[kross]

[ QUOTE ]
I am of the opinion that raising preflop is best, possibly even with 22 (although I am less sure of doing it with 22 then with 77), although I imagine I could be swayed towards checking if someone brought up something that I am not thinking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

A related question is, how many limpers do you want to see to raise 22 from the BB? Or does it not matter? Say, with 3+ limpers, you're looking to hit a set, and with 1 or 2 limpers, you'll bet out on safe-looking flops thinking your 22 might be best?

[Spicymoose]

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[ QUOTE ]
I am of the opinion that raising preflop is best, possibly even with 22 (although I am less sure of doing it with 22 then with 77), although I imagine I could be swayed towards checking if someone brought up something that I am not thinking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

A related question is, how many limpers do you want to see to raise 22 from the BB? Or does it not matter? Say, with 3+ limpers, you're looking to hit a set, and with 1 or 2 limpers, you'll bet out on safe-looking flops thinking your 22 might be best?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. I think I might raise 22 if I have two opponents. At 3, I am losing much of my folding equity/non set equity. But, once we reach 5 opponents or more, I am raising again. I am unsure about this stuff though.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just wait for flawless_victory to answer.

[/ QUOTE ]
RAISE.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good enough. Thread over. Unless someone wants to go up against flawless_victory that is.

[TStoneMBD]

i once made a thread that said something along the lines of if there are 7 limpers in front of you then its correct to raise 22 from the BB. i still think thats correct but its really tough to guage the equity value of such hands postflop.

preflop equity is easy. in this hand i like raising because our preflop equity is around 21%. at 21% that means that by investing another small bet our equity gain is .26SB or .13BB! thats huge on a 1SB investment, a 26% rate of return. i dont think we can make that up postflop by checking.

im not certain whether checking preflop increases our postflop equity or not. in the past ive argued that raising preflop increases our equity but its truly close and depends on the game. i think the more aggressive the game is the more you want to raise preflop. if players are going to raise and reraise protecting their pairs then you will get paid off alot when you flop a set. if players are just calling bets then it doesnt do you much good.

because its hard to determine whether your hand has more value postflop whether you raise or check, i think in this situation raising is clear. an immediately 26% ROI is gigantic in this spot, and its very hard to make that up postflop.

the real question for me is how low would i go with pairs in this spot. i think i would raise 66 but lower than that and i check. its tough.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
i once made a thread that said something along the lines of if there are 7 limpers in front of you then its correct to raise 22 from the BB. i still think thats correct but its really tough to guage the equity value of such hands postflop.

preflop equity is easy. in this hand i like raising because our preflop equity is around 21%. at 21% that means that by investing another small bet our equity gain is .26SB or .13BB! thats huge on a 1SB investment, a 26% rate of return. i dont think we can make that up postflop by checking.

im not certain whether checking preflop increases our postflop equity or not. in the past ive argued that raising preflop increases our equity but its truly close and depends on the game. i think the more aggressive the game is the more you want to raise preflop. if players are going to raise and reraise protecting their pairs then you will get paid off alot when you flop a set. if players are just calling bets then it doesnt do you much good.

because its hard to determine whether your hand has more value postflop whether you raise or check, i think in this situation raising is clear. an immediately 26% ROI is gigantic in this spot, and its very hard to make that up postflop.

the real question for me is how low would i go with pairs in this spot. i think i would raise 66 but lower than that and i check. its tough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your analysis, but your mention of the 26% ROI is off. Although we may have equity by raising preflop, we only realize that entire equity if we reach the river. Since fairly often we are not, we do not get all of that equity. See my above post about how much of the equity we actually have.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]
This means that our new equity of preflop bets is about 13%. So, when we raise preflop, we are putting in 16.6% of the money, but only retrieving about 13%. That means we have a 3.6% loss on our bet we put in. So, raising preflop has a immediate -EV of .02 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

This calculation is wrong.

You put in an extra 1SB and the pot grows by a total of 6SB. Your expected return therefore grows by 13% of 6SB i.e. 0.78SB, but it cost you 1SB to get that, so you lose 0.22SB on the deal.

Furthermore I think people tend to make fewer or smaller mistakes in the inflated pot because their usual action of pressing the call button is closer to being correct, so I am very wary of claims that you will make up this loss postflop.

Guy.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This means that our new equity of preflop bets is about 13%. So, when we raise preflop, we are putting in 16.6% of the money, but only retrieving about 13%. That means we have a 3.6% loss on our bet we put in. So, raising preflop has a immediate -EV of .02 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

This calculation is wrong.

You put in an extra 1SB and the pot grows by a total of 6SB. Your expected return therefore grows by 13% of 6SB i.e. 0.78SB, but it cost you 1SB to get that, so you lose 0.22SB on the deal.

Furthermore I think people tend to make fewer or smaller mistakes in the inflated pot because their usual action of pressing the call button is closer to being correct, so I am very wary of claims that you will make up this loss postflop.

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right about my [censored] math, thanks for pointing it out. As far as the "fewer mistakes in big pots", I disagree. This may be true in most instances, as their small number of outs are suddenly better in the big pot. But, when we hit a set, it is not the usual case, and people will definetly be WAY overcounting their true outs. This means that they will make far more mistakes I think.

[scotty34]

I don't think I have ever encountered this situation before. I would probably raise about 99+ though if I did.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

As far as the "fewer mistakes in big pots", I disagree. This may be true in most instances, as their small number of outs are suddenly better in the big pot. But, when we hit a set, it is not the usual case, and people will definetly be WAY overcounting their true outs. This means that they will make far more mistakes I think


[/ QUOTE ]

Can you give an example of a call you might get in a bigger pot that you wouldn't get in the smaller one? 'Cos on the Party Poker I play, if they think they have a chance of hitting something, they call, pot odds or no pot odds.

Guy.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]

Good question. I think I might raise 22 if I have two opponents. At 3, I am losing much of my folding equity/non set equity. But, once we reach 5 opponents or more, I am raising again. I am
unsure about this stuff though.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a pretty significant mistake, IMO...for the same reasons that it is good to raise 7 from the BB in a family pot... these players will chase excessively and you will be VERY hard pressed to play your hand correctly post-flop.

Example:

Button limps, SB completes. You raise 33 in BB. (both opponents are your average loose-bad).

Flop: Q82. You bet, 2 callers. Turn is a 7. do you bet again? check-call? if you bet, and get called again you don't know if they have 9T or A2 or Q3. if you check and one of them bets, he colud have A2 and you folded the best hand.

It's just way too hard to play these baby pairs OOP, and the task of realizing your equity becomes even more difficult in a raised pot. If the pot remains unraised you can bet/raise when you think your hand is best and usually take down the pot without having to see a river.

Surf

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Good question. I think I might raise 22 if I have two opponents. At 3, I am losing much of my folding equity/non set equity. But, once we reach 5 opponents or more, I am raising again. I am
unsure about this stuff though.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a pretty significant mistake, IMO...for the same reasons that it is good to raise 7 from the BB in a family pot... these players will chase excessively and you will be VERY hard pressed to play your hand correctly post-flop.

Example:

Button limps, SB completes. You raise 33 in BB. (both opponents are your average loose-bad).

Flop: Q82. You bet, 2 callers. Turn is a 7. do you bet again? check-call? if you bet, and get called again you don't know if they have 9T or A2 or Q3. if you check and one of them bets, he colud have A2 and you folded the best hand.

It's just way too hard to play these baby pairs OOP, and the task of realizing your equity becomes even more difficult in a raised pot. If the pot remains unraised you can bet/raise when you think your hand is best and usually take down the pot without having to see a river.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

In the situation you described, I think it is an easy turn check/fold. I do think we might be taking it down on the flop decently often though. I dunno, I just started doing this. I used to check, but after hearing from a bunch of people that they raise on the button more (I think I remember them saying specifically this situation too), I decided to start trying it. I think we are continuing to the river with about the same frequency with our baby pairs if we raise or not preflop, the only difference is that if we do raise, we have more fold equity on the flop, and the pots we win on the flop are bigger. I think this might make up for the extra SB we are paying preflop, but I am not sure.

[Guy McSucker]

Just thought I'd add some stuff from Abdul Jalib.

[ QUOTE ]

Similarly, it is an S&M myth that you should raise with baby pairs like 33 after six (or fewer) limpers, even if you know the blinds will call. Although you will flop a set more then 1 in 9 times, you will win the pot less than 1 in 9 times. Since you will win the pot less than your fair share, you should not raise. A possible exception is when the raise has a decent chance of buying you a free card on the flop, as this now improves your chance of winning to better than 1 in 9, but it is normally rare that all 8 opponents would check to the raiser.


[/ QUOTE ]

Note that Abdul is talking about button raises with a pocket pair here, and saying not to do it. I reckon the argument against raising is all the stronger at a shorthanded table and in the big blind.

I don't make these raises myself (I read that Abdul stuff five years ago and took it to heart) but I am still not sure...

Guy.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
the only difference is that if we do raise, we have more fold equity on the flop, and the pots we win on the flop are bigger. I think this might make up for the extra SB we are paying preflop, but I am not sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not so sure about that. You get alot of fold equity when you bet out from one of the blinds in an unraised pot...players assume you had to improve to make that move, whereas continuation-bets are usually read for what they are - mostly semibluffs and the occasional made hand.

Surf