View Full Version : Decent Thanksgiving middle avail.
Detroit +3.5 -110 (Bowmans)
Atlanta -3 -104 (Pinny)
playersare
11-23-2005, 01:33 PM
the chance of pushing on the 3 is about 10%.
since this is only a side and not a full middle, you are basically laying a combination of 14c to win back 100c on the detroit side if the falcons win by exactly 3.
to break even in the long run you cannot lay more than 10c out to win a side at a time, so this bet is -EV. cheap gamble though at least.
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the chance of pushing on the 3 is about 10%.
since this is only a side and not a full middle, you are basically laying a combination of 14c to win back 100c on the detroit side if the falcons win by exactly 3.
to break even in the long run you cannot lay more than 10c out to win a side at a time, so this bet is -EV. cheap gamble though at least.
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$110 to win $100 Detroit +3.5
$107.10 to win $102.90 Atlanta -3
Finish on 3 10% - win $100
Finish off 3 90% - lose $7.10
Do the math, it's obviously +EV.
You're not laying a total of 14c, you're laying close to the AVERAGE of the two juice numbers (around 7c, as sygamel showed).
Derek123
11-23-2005, 10:31 PM
Im new at this, how do you figure it is 10% to finish at +3?
DougOzzzz
11-23-2005, 10:40 PM
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Im new at this, how do you figure it is 10% to finish at +3?
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Because about 10% of games where one team is a 3 point favorite (or close) end up with the favorite winning by exactly 3 points. I actually get a slightly higher percentage (10.56 for spreads -2.5 to -3.5).
Derek123
11-23-2005, 11:58 PM
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Im new at this, how do you figure it is 10% to finish at +3?
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Because about 10% of games where one team is a 3 point favorite (or close) end up with the favorite winning by exactly 3 points. I actually get a slightly higher percentage (10.56 for spreads -2.5 to -3.5).
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Can you explain how exactly you come up with the 10.56? Is it based on all NFL games with a 3 point spread ever? Where can I find how often this has occured?
DougOzzzz
11-24-2005, 01:43 AM
by the way, if you want to turn this into a scalp, Pinnacle will take -3.5 +114.
Add in DET is now +3.5 -105 at Sports Interaction and that's a pretty decent 9 cent scalp.
Okay, in my exercise in middling, did I do this right?
Detroit +3.5 -115 (Sportsbook) 11.23/9.77
Atlanta -3 +110 (Pinny) 10/11
Risking 23 cents to win $11. I placed the Atlanta bet earlier in the week, believing that the line would move towards them later in the week. I could only find Detroit +3.5, -120, but as it got closer to game time, Sportsbook was offering +3 +105, which I bought half a point to get to +3.5 -115.
Edit: I guess I'm really risking 23 cents to win 9.77 since the the spread can only hit 3 points, not 3.5 points.
DougOzzzz
11-24-2005, 12:40 PM
that seems right. My question is, how did you get Atlanta -3 +110 only 10 minutes ago?
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that seems right. My question is, how did you get Atlanta -3 +110 only 10 minutes ago?
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I had Atlanta -3 +110 on Monday. The question is if I should have just left it there and not tried to middle. I'm really not sold on Atlanta, something about them playing poorly, on the road, short week, but the public still believing in them over Detroit. I thought the line would move more in Detroit's favor later in the week, so I picked up this bet, hoping for "a middle, a hedge and the line I want." as was explained to me earlier in the week. The line didn't really move that far, but the money did a bit, so I took Detroit -3.5 a few minutes ago.
DougOzzzz
11-24-2005, 02:35 PM
I don't like middles unless you can bet them both at the same time (especially soft middles). A middle to me doesn't seem worth it unless it is to win a few units (of course, the edge has to justify betting to win that much).
When you make a "normal" bet early in the week and the line moves later in the week creating a middle opp the payoff if it hits (still a very low chance) is pretty small.
There are some people who supposedly make plays early in the week with the intention of middling later on. The early bets may be for considerably more than normal. These people make these plays with the knowledge that the line will probably move in their favor to create the middle opportunity. Unfortunately, if they are wrong and the line moves the other way, they are stuck with a big bet on a bad line.
craig r
11-25-2005, 08:37 AM
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I don't like middles unless you can bet them both at the same time (especially soft middles). A middle to me doesn't seem worth it unless it is to win a few units (of course, the edge has to justify betting to win that much).
When you make a "normal" bet early in the week and the line moves later in the week creating a middle opp the payoff if it hits (still a very low chance) is pretty small.
There are some people who supposedly make plays early in the week with the intention of middling later on. The early bets may be for considerably more than normal. These people make these plays with the knowledge that the line will probably move in their favor to create the middle opportunity. Unfortunately, if they are wrong and the line moves the other way, they are stuck with a big bet on a bad line.
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I pretty much agree with what Doug says. But, I rarely middle for the sake of a middle. For example, lets say I see a line of -6 and feel it has great value and the line is going to move with my action; i.e. 6.5, 7, etc.., I will bet that as my normal bet with the possible intention of buying some back. I stress "possible" here, because I already like my -6, but if the true line should be 7 and then moves to +8, I will really like that side as well. then I have to decide do I bet the same as my -6 bet or do I just buy some back. It really depends on the situation.
craig
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