Overcall? Buy Outs? Bet for Value?

9 handed 3/6 live game

A couple of tough Lags at the table (including UTG), the rest is pretty passive.

Hero is UTG+2 with Ah2h

UTG Limps, UTG+1 Limps, Hero Limps, 3 more limp including the blinds.

(6 players)
FLOP Jh 9s 4h

SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero?

Hero has one left to act behind him and the blinds get to act again.

Please don't just say raise. I am looking to see exactly why raise is better than call.


LLL

[sean c]

With so many in the hand the nut flush draw and an overcard in an unraised pot i would have just bet out.

Sorry i thought you were the small blind for some reason. I would raise you only need one other player to cold call the raise to make it for value it could gain position. If it does get it heads up you could possibly win the hand UI on the turn.

[sean c]

Also if multiple people cold call your raise the lag may 3-bet and you can capp for value. Col calling here just misses to much value IMO.

[hobbsmann]

RAISE.

Why?

For Value. For a free card. Because it is fun. Because people at 3/6 will call two cold. Etc.

[Munga30]

A large part of the decision is the size of the pot.

There's only 7 bets in the pot right now. The chance to clean up two ace outs in a pot this size doesn't compensate for the extra bet you put in right now. Think about how much additional equity you get with two more outs. Multiply that by the size of the pot. See? Not enough. While you may get callers to make the raise for value, facing them with two bets adds pressure for them to fold. In some games, that won't matter because they'll call two just as easily as they call one. You'll have to make that judgement at the table.

Had the pot been raised preflop, those two outs would be roughly 2x more valuable and more likely worth fighting for. If you were talking about more than two outs, say an undiscounted 6 from having two overcards, raising the flop in the smaller pot becomes more reasonable.

Edit to add: if you do just call, you can still take the opportunity to three bet for value, if offered.

[gopnik]

I think the pot is too small to raise and clear outs. It would really suck if you raised and everybody folded (besides the original better). If you knew for sure that you would get at least 2 cold callers than raise is OK, otherwise I just call.

[avisco01]

I'd call HOPING for someone to raise so I could 3-bet. If such a situation arose you'd have a pot equity edge with your nut flush draw. I'd strongly consider raising in the first place with a big draw. Suppose instead you have the AT of hearts. Now you'd have 3 overcard outs to go along with your flush draw, and the case for raising becomes even more compelling. Unfortunately, you have the weakest kicker available, so your overcard outs may not be any good, but still have some value anyway. Incidentally, I usually won't call in early position with A2, regardless of its suitedness. The conditions of the game would have to be ideal to play this kind of hand from early position. Given the situation, with two limpers in there already, a big pot could develop, so I don't have a problem with it necessarily in this situation, just figured I'd add that as food for thought.

As far as the preflop limp. This was a very loose table and only 2 players have ever raised the flop (UTG was one and he limped in already). Heck I had seen 2 players already limp in with AA. This table had already been averaging 5-6 on the flop.

[avisco01]

If you can get this pot heads up, do you lead the turn if a blank hits, assuming you raised the flop and only one player came along for the turn(unlikely)?

[avisco01]

[ QUOTE ]
As far as the preflop limp. This was a very loose table and only 2 players have ever raised the flop (UTG was one and he limped in already). Heck I had seen 2 players already limp in with AA. This table had already been averaging 5-6 on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Understood, I was just making a point that under "normal" circumstances I won't call with A2 suited from this early. Again, you already had two limpers, a big multi-way pot was seemingly developing, so your hand gained value based on that. I didn't mean to imply that you had made a mistake with calling preflop.