reasons not to slowplay flopped nuts #37 [Archive]

11-23-2005, 11:40 AM

-or-

"Why position is Soooooooooooooooooooooo important in NLHE"

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

1st orbit at the table - no reads

SB ($8.90)
BB ($23.15)
UTG ($6.80)
Hero ($24.75)
MP1 ($25.80)
MP2 ($18.74)
MP3 (Villain)/ ($9.80)
CO ($29.40)
Button ($22.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
1 fold

 .oO(oooh pocket 9's - shame about the position - think I'll see this flop) 

Hero calls $0.25, 2 folds, MP3 (Villain)/ calls $0.25, 2 folds, SB (poster) raises to $0.9, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.75, MP3 (Villain)/ calls $0.75.

Flop: ($3.25) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB bets $1,

 .oO(hmmm - 1/3 of the pot - thats either a weak bet or a trap - really ought to raise here - but I have 2nd nuts and the pot is tiny - lets hope Villain raises...) 

Hero calls $1, Villain calls $1.

Turn: ($6.25) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB checks,

 .oO(great if i raise now the pot is still going to be small - SB has nothing - Villain is definitely drawing ...)

Ok, I'm really interested to know what hand ranges you put Villain and SB on here - and what cards that might scare you into c/c river. I can't think of many scary cards now and want to get all the money in the middle - but I'm 70% sure a raise will fold out both opponents..

beavens

11-23-2005, 11:48 AM

raise preflop, raise the flop to potsized and bet the turn pot sized.

no need to get cute here.

Isura

11-23-2005, 11:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
- and what cards that might scare you into c/c river.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.

[ QUOTE ]

.oO(great if i raise now the pot is still going to be small - SB has nothing - Villain is definitely drawing ...)

[/ QUOTE ]

SB only has 6 left, so just bet the pot, he might call with AK, and he's not folding an overpair. What makes you think villain is drawing? He's probably got a pocket pair or a 5. Bet the turn.

4_2_it

11-23-2005, 11:55 AM

Only a 5 or the joker would scare me at this point, but there is no way I check/call the river. Lead, maybe check raise (maybe 25% of the time) depending on how villains play my turn bet.

I don't see how you are going to stack someone unless they have the straight or catch a flush on the river. I am okay with the smooth call on the flop to keep 2 villains int he hand, but you have to bet $4 on the turn and hope someone has something.

Hattifnatt

11-23-2005, 12:05 PM

raise preflop (but call is ok), I probably raise the flop but a call can be right. Definitely bet/raise turn.

11-23-2005, 12:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
raise preflop, raise the flop to potsized and bet the turn pot sized.

no need to get cute here.

[/ QUOTE ]

raise preflop???

I agree I ought to have raised the pot on the flop but I have such awful position. I hate raising any hand that isn't AA-JJ AK or AQs from EP.

beavens

11-23-2005, 12:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
raise preflop, raise the flop to potsized and bet the turn pot sized.

no need to get cute here.

[/ QUOTE ]

raise preflop???

I agree I ought to have raised the pot on the flop but I have such awful position. I hate raising any hand that isn't AA-JJ AK or AQs from EP.

[/ QUOTE ]

just how i play - 99 is a good hand, not the best of course, but worthy of a raise.

i'm actually thinking about just calling the flop, but definitely potting the turn/raising a bet.

11-23-2005, 12:15 PM

Play it like you would if you went into this pot with A9s.
He bets into you you make a 2/3, 3/4 pot size raise as if to protect your top pair. If they fold, they have nothing and you where going to get a small pot anyway. If you get action, your going to win a big pot that could of been small if you play the entire hand worried about them folding.

I can't count howmany times Ive seen two strong hands go all the way to showdown with a tiny pot because they where both scared to chase each other out.

Also if your only raising the flop with top pair type hands and slowplaying with strong hands, you become very readable.

LetYouDown

11-23-2005, 12:18 PM

This hand is utterly confusing. First of all, you didn't flop the nuts. Second of all you say you're worried about raising the turn when no one has even bet. How do you raise when no one has bet?

You need to bet at least 2/3 of the pot on the turn. Ok, so the draw hits on the river...if it checks around on the turn, the pot is small and you'll never get any reasonable value. Make him pay to draw, hope he gets there and fire a +pot sized bet on the river.

11-23-2005, 12:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Also if your only raising the flop with top pair type hands and slowplaying with strong hands, you become very readable.

[/ QUOTE ]

why? and do you mean from EP or from anywhere? - I raise with a lot more hands in LP than I do from UTG+1

I rarely slowplay any hands, 1 every other day maybe... it still frequently blows up in my face - and everytime it does I tell myself to stop doing it - tho I still continue /images/graemlins/frown.gif

beavens

11-23-2005, 12:37 PM

GAL

11-23-2005, 12:43 PM

Raise to 6 on the flop, if he has a 5 he calls, if he doesn't you aren't making any money with this hand anyway. I play this hand this way at 1/2 and the lone 5 calls every time. If he calls the $6 he won't fold when you put him in for his last $3 on the turn.

11-23-2005, 12:49 PM

Turn: ($6.25) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Villain checks.

River: ($6.25) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB bets $2,

Yes I *know* I should have bet the turn - this was a bad mistake. I wanted to checkraise but Villain checked behind me - quelle surprise - and a bit of a disaster.

tho having found myself in this situation I push (?) I still have a great hand and If I just got rivered it's my own stupid fault for not betting earlier...

beavens

11-23-2005, 12:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: ($6.25) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Villain checks.

River: ($6.25) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB bets $2,

Yes I *know* I should have bet the turn - this was a bad mistake. I wanted to checkraise but Villain checked behind me - quelle surprise - and a bit of a disaster.

tho having found myself in this situation I push (?) I still have a great hand and If I just got rivered it's my own stupid fault for not betting earlier...

[/ QUOTE ]

check raises are so overrated.

Iconoclastic

11-23-2005, 12:53 PM

Many are advocating not slowplaying this hand and betting the pot, at least on the Turn if not every street.

That strikes me as a worse EV play than Checking the Turn and Potting the River.

The board is extremely draw heavy, which bodes great for you because your hand will win a lot of money from a completed draw. By knocking out any draws right now you lose tons of EV.

The argument that you want a bigger pot size by the River is only relevant when the opponent has something he can call a pre-River bet with. I acknowledge that the times they have something like top pair or a PP that you can make about 25% more chips by betting Turn and River than just River. But this is not enough equity to outweigh the argument for slowplaying.

By being aggressive before the River you lessen the chances of being read as a bluff when you Pot the River. Therefore your chances of being called on the River decreases substantially as well.

Without going into a detailed mathematical breakdown, there are many good reasons to slowplay this on the Turn.

beavens

11-23-2005, 12:54 PM

so you are advising to check the turn as well?

11-23-2005, 12:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is utterly confusing. First of all, you didn't flop the nuts. Second of all you say you're worried about raising the turn when no one has even bet. How do you raise when no one has bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

many apologies if my mistitled thread has caused you to waste time reading my dnkish post.

I shall try to make sure I make things less confusing in the future.

11-23-2005, 01:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also if your only raising the flop with top pair type hands and slowplaying with strong hands, you become very readable.

[/ QUOTE ]

why? and do you mean from EP or from anywhere? - I raise with a lot more hands in LP than I do from UTG+1

I rarely slowplay any hands, 1 every other day maybe... it still frequently blows up in my face - and everytime it does I tell myself to stop doing it - tho I still continue /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Its ok to slowplay sometimes, Just dont get into the trap of only playing hands you need to protect agressively and hands you dont passively. If you always do this, thinking players will know what you have.

My friend who taught me poker, (and plays online for a living) started out by making me never slowplay, never bluff (continuatino bets though). If I think Im ahead, bet or raise 2/3 of the pot until Im all-in or think im losing. He had me making a profit right away.

It sounds really simple, but if somone is betting out or comming back at you and you dont know if he has top pair/2 pair/ overpair/ trips...... Its very hard know where you stand.

I guess the point is, always playing agressively I was still stacking people with my monster hands. Sure alot of times Id make the standard bet and everyone would fold, but sometimes Id get raised/called down with TPTK.

Its really a little off topic, nothings been posted to suggest you always slowplay flops. Was just some food for thought. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Iconoclastic

11-23-2005, 01:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
so you are advising to check the turn as well?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

That strikes me as a worse EV play than Checking the Turn and Potting the River.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes

GAL

11-23-2005, 01:41 PM

You do not make money at NLHE by slowplaying these hands.

beavens

11-23-2005, 01:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You do not make money at NLHE by slowplaying these hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

i wasnt advocating slowplaying all the streets - i think that just calling the flop is fine, then waking up on the turn and river.

4_2_it

11-23-2005, 02:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so you are advising to check the turn as well?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

That strikes me as a worse EV play than Checking the Turn and Potting the River.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes

[/ QUOTE ]

With the short stack that each villain has, a $2 bet on the turn gives each one the odds to call almost with any draw as well as pot committing them to call an all-in with any marginal hand on the river.

DoomSlice

11-23-2005, 03:22 PM

The number one reason to not slowplay is that you should be trying to build a pot early on.

fanmail

11-23-2005, 03:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The number one reason to not slowplay is that you should be trying to build a pot early on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Iconoclastic

11-23-2005, 04:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With the short stack that each villain has, a $2 bet on the turn gives each one the odds to call almost with any draw as well as pot committing them to call an all-in with any marginal hand on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're on the right track. But your opponent does not necessarily hold a draw. If they have nothing, by betting them out rather than let them catch up and make a hand you're losing the equity from them reading you for a bluff on the River (remember, you do not show any aggression pre-river) and calling your Pot bet. Not to mention when they bet themselves when they think their two pair is best and then pot committed to calling your raise rather than check-call/folding if you take the lead on the Turn.

If they make their draw on a free River, the shorties will probably go all-in over the top anyway rather than merely call the Pot bet.

Iconoclastic

11-23-2005, 05:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The number one reason to not slowplay is that you should be trying to build a pot early on.

[/ QUOTE ]

The number one reason to slowplay is that you will get more action later on.

4_2_it

11-23-2005, 05:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With the short stack that each villain has, a $2 bet on the turn gives each one the odds to call almost with any draw as well as pot committing them to call an all-in with any marginal hand on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're on the right track. But your opponent does not necessarily hold a draw. If they have nothing, by betting them out rather than let them catch up and make a hand you're losing the equity from them reading you for a bluff on the River (remember, you do not show any aggression pre-river) and calling your Pot bet. Not to mention when they bet themselves when they think their two pair is best and then pot committed to calling your raise rather than check-call/folding if you take the lead on the Turn.

If they make their draw on a free River, the shorties will probably go all-in over the top anyway rather than merely call the Pot bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

If they don't have a draw then what river card could possibly wake them up?

Also, in regard to your pot building thoughts. If stacks were 200bb deep, you think you can extract more $$$$$ from villian by checking to the river then by building a a pot on the flop and turn /images/graemlins/confused.gif

11-23-2005, 05:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The number one reason to not slowplay is that you should be trying to build a pot early on.

[/ QUOTE ]

The number one reason to slowplay is that you will get more action later on.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is so wrong. You want to build a pot. You will only get paid off later if a) villain completes draw and b) villain is dumb enough not to realize you slowplayed a hand better than his completed draw. You have to get the money in at some point. I don't think anyone is advocating making PSB, but you have to build a pot. Making a 1/3 pot bet on the flop and/or turn is usually a very good way to go about doing this. Give the illusion that you are trying to protect a hand against whatever draw you are going up against. Checking to the river and trying to get into a raising war or trying to trap an idiot is not the best way to build a pot IMO.

DoomSlice

11-23-2005, 05:16 PM

This is definately the case in 1) limit games and 2) tournaments, where in case 1, the size of the bet increases no matter what's in the pot and in case 2, where trying to bust other people is very important.

However, in no-limit and pot-limit games, the size of the bet that you can make is directly related to the size of the pot (in no-limit this is not a rule of the game but is still a function of pot odds that you are laying your opponent).

Consider this example: I have AA in the SB and decide to complete so my opponent doesn't fold immediately.

The pot is now 2BB. If I somehow am lucky enough that my opponent flops top pair and calls pot sized bets all the way down, the final pot will be (2 + 4 + 8 + 16) = 30BB.

However, if I simply raised it to 3BB preflop, I can now get a potential pot size of (6 + 12 + 24 + 48) = 90BB. Simply by betting 3BB preflop, I have increased the size of the final pot 3-fold!

The same kind of thinking happens on every street. If you check through on a street instead of betting where you could have increased the pot, you will cut the size of the final pot by some factor x (usually 2). So to be able to profit from a slowplay like this, you have to be positive that your opponent will 1) pay you off with a hand that is worse than yours (which is not an unreasonable assumption if he improves) 2) improve enough to pay off SUBSANTIALLY more but still not enough to beat you (this is the unlikely part).

-Doom

Iconoclastic

11-23-2005, 05:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If they don't have a draw then what river card could possibly wake them up?

Also, in regard to your pot building thoughts. If stacks were 200bb deep, you think you can extract more $$$$$ from villian by checking to the river then by building a a pot on the flop and turn /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Any card. If it's higher than 9, it will make someone top two pair. If it's lower than 9, it will make a lower Full House. The only hands you're afraid of are AA-TT but that's only about 7% of their range. How many players at $25 tables fold to a pot sized bet on the River from someone who did not show any aggression pre-River with two pair or better??

No. Only a moron would play the same way with 200BB as with 100BB (or 40BB, as in this particular case).

11-23-2005, 05:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The number one reason to not slowplay is that you should be trying to build a pot early on.

[/ QUOTE ]

The number one reason to slowplay is that you will get more action later on.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the original post meant the opposite of what your saying.
The bigger the pot is on the river, the more value you can extract.

With TPTK, no flush no st8 no pair on the river. Will you call 1/2 the pot? 1/3 pot?

If your going to call a 1/3 pot bet, does it matter if the pot is $10 or $100?
nope.

Iconoclastic

11-23-2005, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]

This is so wrong. You want to build a pot. You will only get paid off later if a) villain completes draw and b) villain is dumb enough not to realize you slowplayed a hand better than his completed draw. You have to get the money in at some point. I don't think anyone is advocating making PSB, but you have to build a pot. Making a 1/3 pot bet on the flop and/or turn is usually a very good way to go about doing this. Give the illusion that you are trying to protect a hand against whatever draw you are going up against. Checking to the river and trying to get into a raising war or trying to trap an idiot is not the best way to build a pot IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about Two pair? Lower Full House? It's only a pot bet on the River. Villains reading you for a bluff and coming over the top??

Also, how are 1/3 pot bets going to give the illusion you are trying to protect the pot??? You're giving odds to everything under the sun!

fanmail

11-23-2005, 05:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Also, how are 1/3 pot bets going to give the illusion you are trying to protect the pot??? You're giving odds to everything under the sun!

[/ QUOTE ]

We're trying to give them odds here, we clearly have a strong, not likely beatable, hand. A flush or str8 is not going to hurt us. If you bet something on this turn, they will call with a lot of hands, or possibly even raise us. If they have absolutely nothing, we weren't getting any money anyway.

Iconoclastic

11-23-2005, 05:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is definately the case in 1) limit games and 2) tournaments, where in case 1, the size of the bet increases no matter what's in the pot and in case 2, where trying to bust other people is very important.

However, in no-limit and pot-limit games, the size of the bet that you can make is directly related to the size of the pot (in no-limit this is not a rule of the game but is still a function of pot odds that you are laying your opponent).

Consider this example: I have AA in the SB and decide to complete so my opponent doesn't fold immediately.

The pot is now 2BB. If I somehow am lucky enough that my opponent flops top pair and calls pot sized bets all the way down, the final pot will be (2 + 4 + 8 + 16) = 30BB.

However, if I simply raised it to 3BB preflop, I can now get a potential pot size of (6 + 12 + 24 + 48) = 90BB. Simply by betting 3BB preflop, I have increased the size of the final pot 3-fold!

The same kind of thinking happens on every street. If you check through on a street instead of betting where you could have increased the pot, you will cut the size of the final pot by some factor x (usually 2). So to be able to profit from a slowplay like this, you have to be positive that your opponent will 1) pay you off with a hand that is worse than yours (which is not an unreasonable assumption if he improves) 2) improve enough to pay off SUBSANTIALLY more but still not enough to beat you (this is the unlikely part).

-Doom

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, the AA example is a little extreme.

Your analysis is correct except the last few sentences. All Villains need to have is something like AJo and hit an overcard to be willing to call a pot bet from someone who did not show any pre-River aggression. Or just a 7 perhaps even. This is $25 stakes we're talking about here.

Oh yea, don't forget about potential bluff attempts by Villains.

4_2_it

11-23-2005, 05:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If they don't have a draw then what river card could possibly wake them up?

Also, in regard to your pot building thoughts. If stacks were 200bb deep, you think you can extract more $$$$$ from villian by checking to the river then by building a a pot on the flop and turn /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Any card. If it's higher than 9, it will make someone top two pair. If it's lower than 9, it will make a lower Full House. The only hands you're afraid of are AA-TT but that's only about 7% of their range. How many players at $25 tables fold to a pot sized bet on the River from someone who did not show any aggression pre-River with two pair or better??

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess your strategy is fine if all you want to win is a $6 bet on the river, though I would guess that a pot-sized river bet will fold villains out 75% of the time, so your expected value is $1.50. I would rather gives drawers odds they perceive to be correct to stay in the hand and build up a pot and get them pot committed. If these guys have air, no amount of fancy playing is going to get them to commit their stacks, they need to have a solid second best hand here. Many times they won't so you settle on taking it down on the turn.

Iconoclastic

11-23-2005, 05:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I think the original post meant the opposite of what your saying.
The bigger the pot is on the river, the more value you can extract.

With TPTK, no flush no st8 no pair on the river. Will you call 1/2 the pot? 1/3 pot?

If your going to call a 1/3 pot bet, does it matter if the pot is $10 or $100?
nope.

[/ QUOTE ]

Will I call with TPTK? Yes, if not bet it myself.

But if Villain has something like AJ, and hits an overcard on the River, by betting pre-River you just lost the money you would have made on the River.

4_2_it

11-23-2005, 05:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You're giving odds to everything under the sun!

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the correct play here. Can't you see why?

Iconoclastic

11-23-2005, 05:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're giving odds to everything under the sun!

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the correct play here. Can't you see why?

[/ QUOTE ]

It sure is /images/graemlins/smile.gif! But it sure won't give the illusion that we're TRYING to protect the pot! read the post I responded to

11-23-2005, 05:44 PM

4_2_it

11-23-2005, 05:45 PM

Iconoclastic

11-23-2005, 05:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I guess your strategy is fine if all you want to win is a $6 bet on the river, though I would guess that a pot-sized river bet will fold villains out 75% of the time, so your expected value is $1.50. I would rather gives drawers odds they perceive to be correct to stay in the hand and build up a pot and get them pot committed. If these guys have air, no amount of fancy playing is going to get them to commit their stacks, they need to have a solid second best hand here. Many times they won't so you settle on taking it down on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think of it this way. I'll use your estimates.

Check Turn, bet River line.

Win $6 25%
Win $0 75%=$1.50 EV

Bet Turn. Bet River.
Turn: Win $2 (to entice draws) 25%
Win $0 75%

River: Win $10 (pot of 10) 10% (remember you just folded out hands like J2o that could have hit two pair on the River if you checked the Turn therefore fewer hands will call here than with my line)
Win $0 90%=$.75 EV

You're simply not going to gain enough equity thru pot building from strong 2nd best hands (only completed draws and lower FHs, mostly) calling the final bet on the River after you have already showed aggression on the Turn to make up for not getting paid off by the hands that could have improved on the Turn card, bluff attempts, and other benefits of lacking pre-River aggression.

4_2_it

11-23-2005, 06:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess your strategy is fine if all you want to win is a $6 bet on the river, though I would guess that a pot-sized river bet will fold villains out 75% of the time, so your expected value is $1.50. I would rather gives drawers odds they perceive to be correct to stay in the hand and build up a pot and get them pot committed. If these guys have air, no amount of fancy playing is going to get them to commit their stacks, they need to have a solid second best hand here. Many times they won't so you settle on taking it down on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think of it this way. I'll use your estimates.

Check Turn, bet River line.

Win $6 25%
Win $0 75%=$1.50 EV

Bet Turn. Bet River.
Turn: Win $2 (to entice draws) 25%
Win $0 75%

River: Win $10 (pot of 10) 10% (remember you just folded out hands like J2o that could have hit two pair on the River if you checked the Turn therefore fewer hands will call here than with my line)
Win $0 90%=$.75 EV

You're simply not going to gain enough equity thru pot building from strong 2nd best hands calling the big bet on the River after you have already showed aggression on the Turn (only completed draws and lower FHs, mostly) to make up for not getting paid off by the hands that improve on the Turn card, bluff attempts, and other benefits of not showing any pre-River aggression.

[/ QUOTE ]

You just made my case. You need to factor in all cases:

Turn fold 25%*$2=$0.50
River fold=(90%of 75%)67.5%*4=$2.70
River push (10%of 75%) 7.5% *$12=$0.90
Total EV=$4.10

Overall my play (even using your pessimistic 10% which should be closer to 25%, but 10% still adequately proves my point) is more correct $4.10 to your winning $12.00 25% of time which has an expected value of $3.00.

Iconoclastic

11-23-2005, 06:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You just made my case. You need to factor in all cases:

Turn fold 25%*$2=$0.50
River fold=(90%of 75%)67.5%*4=$2.70
River push (10%of 75%) 7.5% *$12=$0.90
Total EV=$4.10

Overall my play (even using your pessimistic 10% which should be closer to 25%, but 10% still adequately proves my point) is more correct $4.10 to your winning $12.00 25% of time which has an expected value of $3.00.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check your math.

Doesn't your formula assume that your Turn bet gets called a whopping 75% of the time?

4_2_it

11-23-2005, 06:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You just made my case. You need to factor in all cases:

Turn fold 25%*$2=$0.50
River fold=(90%of 75%)67.5%*4=$2.70
River push (10%of 75%) 7.5% *$12=$0.90
Total EV=$4.10

Overall my play (even using your pessimistic 10% which should be closer to 25%, but 10% still adequately proves my point) is more correct $4.10 to your winning $12.00 25% of time which has an expected value of $3.00.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check your math.

Doesn't your formula assume that your Turn bet gets called a whopping 75% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops. However, if I assume villain is on a draw 50% of times he calls and has 2-pr the 50% here are the numbers:

Both villains fold to turn bet of $2 (50%of the time) -- 50%*2=$1.00
1 villain calls river push with 2-pr/overpair/donk 10%*12=$1.20
1 villain call river push with made straight/flush --6%*12=$0.72
1 villain folds on river with missed draw -- 34%*$4=$1.36

I still get $4.28 to your $3.00 and I have villain folding 86% of the time to your 75%. My case is more pessimistic and is still more +EV. It is even more +EV if you factor in both villains calling even a small percentage of the time.

el_grande

11-23-2005, 06:43 PM

I think the flop bet looks likes an overcard scare bet on a xxy board. Call that (as you did), then make a $2 turn bet so it's correct for draws that you beat to call. You'll also get called by passive players with overcards. An aggressive player will raise you and you can get it all in there.

Seems the best way to win money against the widest range of players. If you get a call or two and river looks like it may have improved somebody, make a pot bet. If it is an A or K, make a value river bet which might make it look like you are scared. You could get a bluff raise from that or somebody may have make Aces up.

11-23-2005, 07:05 PM

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Its ok to slowplay sometimes, Just dont get into the trap of only playing hands you need to protect agressively and hands you dont passively. If you always do this, thinking players will know what you have.

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k - I agree here 100%

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Its really a little off topic, nothings been posted to suggest you always slowplay flops. Was just some food for thought. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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Fairymuff - I wasn't taking it personally - and till I stop sucking at poker I need all the food for thought I can get /images/graemlins/smile.gif more is always appreciated.

I'm happy that one of my threads has provoked some interesting discussion - and I have now learnt loads more from this hand than I would have done otherwise...

11-23-2005, 07:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop bet looks likes an overcard scare bet on a xxy board. Call that (as you did), then make a $2 turn bet so it's correct for draws that you beat to call. You'll also get called by passive players with overcards. An aggressive player will raise you and you can get it all in there.

Seems the best way to win money against the widest range of players.

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I like this line a lot. Next time I'm thinking of slowplaying something I'll give this a bash and see what happens.

11-23-2005, 07:23 PM

River: ($6.25) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB bets $2, Hero raises to $8, Villain calls $7.80 (All-In), SB calls $4.90 (All-In).

Final Pot: $28.95

SB has Qd Qs (two pair, queens and fives).
Hero has 9h 9d (full house, nines full of fives).
Villain has Ts Tc (full house, tens full of fives).
Outcome: Villain wins $28.75. Hero wins $0.19.

so... so much for my theory that SB had nothing... tho I am very hapy they called me down only holding 2 pair.

had Villain not spiked a 10 on the river I imagine they would have folded the river - and I would have collected a $21 pot. As it turned out - o well - thats just the way the cards fall.

Had I played more aggressively on the flop and turn I would most likely have taken down a much smaller pot earlier.

scrapperdog

11-23-2005, 08:19 PM

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The number one reason to not slowplay is that you should be trying to build a pot early on.

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Exactly. How many times has a person slow played naked trip 5's only to find a strait or flush hit the board on the river and now they want to be careful putting money in. Or the board pairs higher than 5 and now their hand is questionable. You want to get people putting money in while they are still willing to put it in. You dont have to go crazy and bet everyone out, but start building a pot that people are not gonna want to let go of as quickly as possible.

Iconoclastic

11-24-2005, 12:08 AM

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Oops. However, if I assume villain is on a draw 50% of times he calls and has 2-pr the 50% here are the numbers:

Both villains fold to turn bet of $2 (50%of the time) -- 50%*2=$1.00
1 villain calls river push with 2-pr/overpair/donk 10%*12=$1.20
1 villain call river push with made straight/flush --6%*12=$0.72
1 villain folds on river with missed draw -- 34%*$4=$1.36

I still get $4.28 to your $3.00 and I have villain folding 86% of the time to your 75%. My case is more pessimistic and is still more +EV. It is even more +EV if you factor in both villains calling even a small percentage of the time.

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Not so fast my friend. The Villains in this hand only started with $9 and $10 dollars, so you cannot win $12 from either one. That number would be substituted by 8 or 7, depending on which would call the $2 bet. That lowers the Bet Turn Bet River line's EV significantly, to 1.96 vs. my 1.50 per the original formula, which does not count the money I put into the pot as EV.

That .46 is potentially made up by equity yet to be entered into our formulas; the times they bluff because we have shown no pre-River aggression; the times the SB decides it is safe to bet out on the River instead of check-call/folding.

Also, personally I never bet a small portion of the pot unless I have the nuts. It just gives up too much odds to hands I'm trying to protect against. So my arsenal consists heavily of check(raise)s and pot sized bets. My shania demands the Check Turn Bet River line.

Iconoclastic

11-24-2005, 12:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
River: ($6.25) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB bets $2, Hero raises to $8, Villain calls $7.80 (All-In), SB calls $4.90 (All-In).

Final Pot: $28.95

SB has Qd Qs (two pair, queens and fives).
Hero has 9h 9d (full house, nines full of fives).
Villain has Ts Tc (full house, tens full of fives).
Outcome: Villain wins $28.75. Hero wins $0.19.

so... so much for my theory that SB had nothing... tho I am very hapy they called me down only holding 2 pair.

had Villain not spiked a 10 on the river I imagine they would have folded the river - and I would have collected a $21 pot. As it turned out - o well - thats just the way the cards fall.

Had I played more aggressively on the flop and turn I would most likely have taken down a much smaller pot earlier.

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That just shows why my line is probably slightly better.

Iconoclastic

11-24-2005, 12:13 AM

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Exactly. How many times has a person slow played naked trip 5's only to find a strait or flush hit the board on the river and now they want to be careful putting money in. Or the board pairs higher than 5 and now their hand is questionable. You want to get people putting money in while they are still willing to put it in. You dont have to go crazy and bet everyone out, but start building a pot that people are not gonna want to let go of as quickly as possible.

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Why would anyone slowplay mere trips on the Flop AND the Turn? On a draw heavy board? If they're stupid enough to do that then they're stupid enough to put all their money in on the river regardless of the river card.

4_2_it

11-24-2005, 12:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Oops. However, if I assume villain is on a draw 50% of times he calls and has 2-pr the 50% here are the numbers:

Both villains fold to turn bet of $2 (50%of the time) -- 50%*2=$1.00
1 villain calls river push with 2-pr/overpair/donk 10%*12=$1.20
1 villain call river push with made straight/flush --6%*12=$0.72
1 villain folds on river with missed draw -- 34%*$4=$1.36

I still get $4.28 to your $3.00 and I have villain folding 86% of the time to your 75%. My case is more pessimistic and is still more +EV. It is even more +EV if you factor in both villains calling even a small percentage of the time.

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Not so fast my friend. The Villains in this hand only started with $9 and $10 dollars, so you cannot win $12 from either one. That number would be substituted by 8 or 7, depending on which would call the $2 bet. That lowers the Bet Turn Bet River line's EV significantly, to 1.96 vs. my 1.50 per the original formula, which does not count the money I put into the pot as EV.

That .46 is potentially made up by equity yet to be entered into our formulas; the times they bluff because we have shown no pre-River aggression; the times the SB decides it is safe to bet out on the River instead of check-call/folding.

Also, personally I never bet a small portion of the pot unless I have the nuts. It just gives up too much odds to hands I'm trying to protect against. So my arsenal consists heavily of check(raise)s and pot sized bets. My shania demands the Check Turn Bet River line.

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Of course you win $12. You have to count the money you put in on the turn in the calculation. Once $$ go into pot it is no longer yours. You can believe what you like, I am through here.

Iconoclastic

11-24-2005, 05:43 PM

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Of course you win $12. You have to count the money you put in on the turn in the calculation. Once $$ go into pot it is no longer yours. You can believe what you like, I am through here.

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No it's pointless to count the money you put in yourself as EV winnings. Compare the $12 you say you win with Bet Turn Bet River with the $6 I win with Check Turn Bet River. You're saying that instead of winning $6 I should win $12 after including the $6 from my bet with the $6 from Villain's call.

DoomSlice

11-28-2005, 01:40 AM

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Had I played more aggressively on the flop and turn I would most likely have taken down a much smaller pot earlier.

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But instead you lost a big pot!

If SB is not folding here, then he isn't folding the turn either. And although Villain put money in on the river, there is a good chance he would have folded if a J, Q, K, A came and scared him away.