Flop and turn confussion

[sean c]

Party 2/4. Table is weak tight with the exception of one fish and a few tags. Villian in this one is weak tight and straight foward.

Pre flop: fish limps from ep, folds to co(villian) she limps, i raise A /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif on the button, both blinds call and both limpers call.

Flop(5 players 10sb): 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Checks to me and i bet, sb calls, bb folds, fish folds, co raises, i call and sb calls.

Turn(3 players 8bb: K /images/graemlins/club.gif
sb checks, co bets and i raise.

Flop: Bet or check a paired board? Call the check/raise?

Turn: Basically free showdown raise like or no?

[Guruman]

I tend to check through this flop. You'll not win the hand outright vs four opponents, and you can't represent much here. Also, you protect yourself vs a random checkraise and get a free card to improve with.

I bet vs

-the fish and a weakie (may get hu with the fish where I'm usually ahead)
-three weakies(may win with a bet on the turn)
-any one opponent

I think the flop bet is pretty standard.

A weak-tighty, checkraising two people, including a PFR on a drawless, paired board...I'd fold this every time (at least I wish I did)

[jrz1972]

Betting the flop is fine. This is a very difficult board for anyone to have hit, and you will frequently have the best hand. I bet this with the intention of taking a free card on the turn if I get called in multiple spots.

When I get raised by a straight-forward weak-tight player, things change. I'm not ready to give this person credit for an 8, obviously, but I'm not going to try to push thin edges either. Raising the turn will serve to fold out the weak-tighty if you were ahead, but you will always get 3-bet if villain has an 8 or the unlikely pocket 4s. SB's precense in the hand doesn't change much unless he suddenly wakes up with a raise.

So no, I don't really like the free showdown raise here. It's an easy fold if somebody 3-bets, but you'll never push anybody into making a bad fold. You will, however, fold out some hands that might have paid off a river bet.

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
Betting the flop is fine. This is a very difficult board for anyone to have hit, and you will frequently have the best hand. I bet this with the intention of taking a free card on the turn if I get called in multiple spots.

When I get raised by a straight-forward weak-tight player, things change. I'm not ready to give this person credit for an 8, obviously, but I'm not going to try to push thin edges either. Raising the turn will serve to fold out the weak-tighty if you were ahead, but you will always get 3-bet if villain has an 8 or the unlikely pocket 4s. SB's precense in the hand doesn't change much unless he suddenly wakes up with a raise.

So no, I don't really like the free showdown raise here. It's an easy fold if somebody 3-bets, but you'll never push anybody into making a bad fold. You will, however, fold out some hands that might have paid off a river bet.

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very good analysis. I agree on all counts.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
Betting the flop is fine. This is a very difficult board for anyone to have hit, and you will frequently have the best hand. I bet this with the intention of taking a free card on the turn if I get called in multiple spots.

When I get raised by a straight-forward weak-tight player, things change. I'm not ready to give this person credit for an 8, obviously, but I'm not going to try to push thin edges either. Raising the turn will serve to fold out the weak-tighty if you were ahead, but you will always get 3-bet if villain has an 8 or the unlikely pocket 4s. SB's precense in the hand doesn't change much unless he suddenly wakes up with a raise.

So no, I don't really like the free showdown raise here. It's an easy fold if somebody 3-bets, but you'll never push anybody into making a bad fold. You will, however, fold out some hands that might have paid off a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi jrz you think i gain more when ahead by calling down and lose the same when behind? I won't disagree with this if it was heads up i like it better but with another player in the hand i felt the raise was a little better. I gain more from the sb if he decides to call and make it incorrect for him to call with certain hands that he would be correct to call with if i had just smooth called. Anyway i think with sb still hanging around i like the raise a little better than smooth calling.

I bet the flop because I like to keep control of the hand and chase out possible hands like QT, QJ, JT, T9, etc. If you get c/r on the flop like what happened here, it's one of two things---

1.) A random bluff attempt, which I think is more likely because if someone flopped a monster here, they would really be more likely to c/r the turn. If it is a random bluff attempt, you are ahead most of the time.

2.) Bettor has an 8 or the dreaded pocket 4's. Even if I think this dope made his hand, I still call the c/r on the flop because I don't like to come across as a weak player.

On the turn, you spiked a nice card and I think it gives you enough to call down with.

[Guruman]

ok, from SSH 226 and 227:

1)how big is the pot?
10 sb

2)how likely is it that all of my opponents missed the flop?
semi-likely, since there are no draws to spead of and the board is paired. We do have 4 opponents though, so the odds that someone has something are higher than if we had two or three.

3)How strong is my hand?
no backdoor straight or flush draws. only high card strength.

4)how likely is betting to win the pot immediately?
not very. Id say its actually very unlikely

5)Is betting likely to significantly improve my winning chances even if I do not win immediately?
I'd say not likely. the chances of winning with this many people in without a showdown are slim, as are the chances of pushing someone off a better hand.

6)Is betting likely to buy a free card on the turn if I want it?
I'd say no. with four opponents, someone is bound to think better of thier own overcards or pocket pair often enough to bet. I'd challenge anyone to show me the last fivehanded flop that checked through the flop AND turn. Also, if the turn checks, I'm value betting anyway.


....sooooo

big pot with the chance of having the best hand, but if we arent value betting [vs FOUR people!!] then we're totally spewing here since we won't win without a showdown or fold out a better hand. I check and bet the turn if checked to.

[Aaron W.]

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5)Is betting likely to significantly improve my winning chances even if I do not win immediately?
I'd say not likely. the chances of winning with this many people in without a showdown are slim, as are the chances of pushing someone off a better hand.

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Assuming that nobody has a pocket pair and that nobody matched the board (the first assumption being semi-likely and the second being relatively likely), for every card you fold out you increase your chances of winning by about 8-10% (Run some twodimes simulations to convince yourself this is true). To rephrase, if you have the lead, you gain quite a bit by folding out hands that are chasing you.

[ QUOTE ]
6)Is betting likely to buy a free card on the turn if I want it?
I'd say no. with four opponents, someone is bound to think better of thier own overcards or pocket pair often enough to bet. I'd challenge anyone to show me the last fivehanded flop that checked through the flop AND turn. Also, if the turn checks, I'm value betting anyway.

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This doesn't make sense. You're talking about betting the flop, so why are you asking someone to prove you wrong by showing you a hand where the flop gets checked through?

[Redd]

What do you do on the turn, Aaron?

There's definitely some gutshot/5-outer hands out there that we want to protect SB from, and we can probably fold to a 3-bet given the read. But there's also many hands where we don't really mind SB calling the turn with for one more that he'll likely fold for two (PPs, for instance), folding TPTK to a 3-bet hurts in a pot this big, and call-call gets us a showdown for the same price. I occasionally find myself torn in these spots, and usually end up calling down but always doubt my play at the time.

[Augster]

I think, from your read of a straight forward player, we are in big trouble.

Pre-flop is standard, obviously.

I have to get away from betting this flop in position into 4 players. But when I think, "What would I do if I raised AA, KK or QQ preflop?" I always would bet. Always. So I bet.

The C/R from a "straight-forward" player means we are toast I believe. She didn't C/R to drive anyone out, she C/R'd for value. If she wanted others out, she would have bet into us, the pre-flop agg, and gotten us to 3-bet and drive the others out.

Here she gave herself the best chance of extracting the most bets on the flop. Not good. Probably has 44, or A8s. Maybe 78/89s too.

The turn when she bets out, I think the raise is spew. You might want to call down, as if the other K hits, you're golden. Folding here wouldn't be the worst fold in the world.

I could see calling down, just to find out what she would C/R me with.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
I think, from your read of a straight forward player, we are in big trouble.

Pre-flop is standard, obviously.

I have to get away from betting this flop in position into 4 players. But when I think, "What would I do if I raised AA, KK or QQ preflop?" I always would bet. Always. So I bet.

The C/R from a "straight-forward" player means we are toast I believe. She didn't C/R to drive anyone out, she C/R'd for value. If she wanted others out, she would have bet into us, the pre-flop agg, and gotten us to 3-bet and drive the others out.

Here she gave herself the best chance of extracting the most bets on the flop. Not good. Probably has 44, or A8s. Maybe 78/89s too.

The turn when she bets out, I think the raise is spew. You might want to call down, as if the other K hits, you're golden. Folding here wouldn't be the worst fold in the world.

I could see calling down, just to find out what she would C/R me with.

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Hi Augster the turn raise is the last money i am putting in the pot. If i get 3-bet or she bets the river i am folding. So the raise doesn't cost me any more than calling down.

[Mathieu]

On the flop there is a good possibility that you are still ahead, so I think you have to bet to protect your hand since anyone with live cards has at least 6 outs to outdraw.

I call the flop check raise, although it annoys me because trips play the same way, and it's hard to put him on a pocket pair or a 4. It's possible that he has a suited 4 that he decided to take a flop with, given the pot odds and good relative position. With 2 callers or more this check raise would show more strength, and I would be really tempted to fold if my read was good. With only 1 caller he might think that he is still good and whats to find out now rather than on the turn. Given the 14-1 pot odds, and the fact that only one other player called your bet, I think you have to call the flop check raise even though it does not look so good.

On the turn I don't raise for a free showdown. I think it is very likely that SB is calling with a hand that has very few outs to beat us. There is also a reasonable chance that we are behind, so I like going for overcalls.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you do on the turn, Aaron?

There's definitely some gutshot/5-outer hands out there that we want to protect SB from, and we can probably fold to a 3-bet given the read. But there's also many hands where we don't really mind SB calling the turn with for one more that he'll likely fold for two (PPs, for instance), folding TPTK to a 3-bet hurts in a pot this big, and call-call gets us a showdown for the same price. I occasionally find myself torn in these spots, and usually end up calling down but always doubt my play at the time.

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Just call. Raising is one of those "information raises" that give you information that's pretty much useless. Yeah, you can probably fold to a 3-bet, but what does that do for you? (Actually, 5% of the time you improve to beat trips on the river, so you *do* lose by raising and folding to a 3-bet.) I want to get the overcaller drawing dead or drawing to 2 outs and I don't want to have to face a 3-bet. (Maybe he has a gutshot and will call properly, but I'm more afraid of an 8 than I am of a gutshot.)

I generally tread very lightly on the turn when the flop came down paired. It's treacherous territory.