if you thought c/r, c/c, c/c was weak... [Archive]

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wheelz

11-23-2005, 09:29 AM

c/r, c/c, c/f, THAT'S a [censored] winner.

button is 22.1/9.2/1.78 after 850 full ring hands. i think he knows i'm a LAG.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero folds.

Spicymoose

11-23-2005, 09:39 AM

I don´t really get your overall plan. I would bet/fold the turn. He could have an underpair, and you don´t want him to be able to win with those hands too. Were you calling most rivers, but figured that the J made JJ and TT beat you?

bugstud

11-23-2005, 09:42 AM

are you folding any non-k non-9 river?

wheelz

11-23-2005, 09:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
are you folding any non-k non-9 river?

[/ QUOTE ]

no

wheelz

11-23-2005, 09:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He could have an underpair, and you don´t want him to be able to win with those hands too.

[/ QUOTE ]

i want him to try to though, so i checked. i wasn't folding most rivers UI.

stigmata

11-23-2005, 09:46 AM

I guess he was thinking that button might bluff the turn but then check down a worse hand on the river?

Gotta hate that turn. I think I prefer bet/folding turn, and if he just calls then we must be toast anyhow.... Anything he can call a turn bet with must have as beat - fold river.

wheelz

11-23-2005, 09:47 AM

so we're thinking fold a river blank too? wasn't sure about that. he might think i'm an idiot. really.

stigmata

11-23-2005, 09:51 AM

No, it was a question more than a statement, I think u already answered it thanks!

wheelz

11-23-2005, 09:53 AM

i guess i'm not really sure what my river plan was, i just decided i was check/folding on this one /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Spicymoose

11-23-2005, 09:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
so we're thinking fold a river blank too? wasn't sure about that. he might think i'm an idiot. really.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno. This reminds me of the c/c, c/c, c/f line where you are calling because you might have the bet hand, but your opponent would almost never bet the river with a hand that you beat. In this case, even if a blank falls, I have a hard time believing that our villain would bet with a worse hand 1 in 10. There are just too many hands that he could have that beat us. Out of the hands that don´t beat us, he would have had to play them in such an odd way, that it they just don´t seem that likely.

I think I could actually see folding the river even if the jack didn´t come (although the jack makes folding soooo much easier).

wheelz

11-23-2005, 09:59 AM

yeah. i concede already. fold any river. that was my turn plan, right...

Spicymoose

11-23-2005, 10:07 AM

If he 3-bets preflop with 88+, KJs+, KQ, ATs+, AJ+, then assuming a blank river fell, we would be behind 54 combos of pretty reasonably played high cards, QQ, KK, and AA. We are ahead of 88,99,TT,JJ, which have 24 combos. For us to be ahead on the river if he bets a blank, the combos which we area ahead of have to end up being 6 (so that we win 6 outa 60, or 1 in 10). That means he to play his underpairs the way he did at least 25% of the time he has them. I don´t think this is the case, even against some pretty crazy opponents.

Therefore I think if you are calling the turn, you can still fold to a blank river.

As for calling the turn, if we assume that the higher underpairs (TT, JJ) bet about 50% of the time, and the lower ones bet maybe 25% of the time, we have 9 combos of hands that we are currently ahead of if they bet. This is assuming that these hands raised the flop, which a bunch of them didn´t. So in reality, they have even less combos of these hands. Considering we improve against some of the hands that are ahead of us sometimes, and that usually the hands that are behind us will give up, I think a turn call might be ok if you expect our opponent to be betting his underpairs this often. That is a decision of judgement though. I think there are plenty of opponents who will not ever bet these underpairs, or who will rarely do so. Against these, a turn fold is a must. If there is some significant chance that they might bet these hands, then you can call the turn, and fold the river UI.

wheelz

11-23-2005, 10:12 AM

well, this hand is done. he actually checked behind the river with 77 and MHIG, but my plan was fold to a river bet. but then it never happened so i guess i wasn't prepared to answer river questions...

i don't know that he'd bet JJ or QQ that often on the turn though with the gutshot.

stigmata

11-23-2005, 10:19 AM

Isn't this hand easier to play if you just bet the turn?

Sure, we get value by inducing a bluff, but we lose value when our play leads to a really awful fold.

The only problem with bettin the turn is if he is capable of bluff-raising the ace turn with a weaker hand.

wheelz

11-23-2005, 10:26 AM

i think he is capable of bluff raising the turn, so whether i make a bad fold on the turn to his bluff raise or on the river to his follow through, i lose 1 BB (and the pot) either way. this way the chances of getting bluffed are lower, and if he has a PP hopefully i induce one bluff.

Surfbullet

11-23-2005, 10:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i think he is capable of bluff raising the turn, so whether i make a bad fold on the turn to his bluff raise or on the river to his follow through, i lose 1 BB (and the pot) either way. this way the chances of getting bluffed are lower, and if he has a PP hopefully i induce one bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this lean. It feels soooooo weak, but I think it's best in this situation. This board is dangerous enough to keep a TAG honest on the river IMO.

Surf

brazilio

11-23-2005, 11:12 AM

I've actually bet 99-JJ on the turn and river with exactly that plan in mind from TAGs I know who'll fold their pair to the river bet. I don't mind the plan of folding to the river bet, but I'm never very sure that I like it. Apart form the J falling on the river.