Calculating the EV from an old thread

[oreogod]

This is from an old thread. Can anybody come up with the equation used to find the EV for calling/raising, using the weighed percentages he came up with? Im obviously doing the math wrong because I come up with different figures. Help.


LINK TO ORGINAL THREAD (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=&Number=1542527&page=1&vi ew=&sb=5&o=14&fpart=all) (its one of GoTs posts that are in question.)




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Preflop:
MP limps, Hero raises in the CO w/ A K. Button calls cold, SB 3-bets, MP calls, Hero caps, everyone calls.

Flop: (13 SBs) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 Players)
Checked to Hero who bets, button calls, SB raises, MP folds. Hero 3-bets, button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (11 BBs) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets, button folds, SB calls.

River: (13 BBs) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
SB bets out...


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Okay, I decided to try and find the point where calling is better than raising. Here's an extremely unrealistic handset, tipped way in my opponents favor:

I'm ahead and he won't call a raise : 0%
I'm ahead and he will call a raise : 0%
I'm behind and he won't call a raise : 0%
I'm behind and he will call/reraise a raise : 80%
I'm chopping and he won't call a raise : 15%
I'm chopping and he will call a raise : 5%

EV of folding : +0.00 BB's
EV of calling : +0.70 BB's
EV of raising : +0.85 BB's

This is obviously weighted hugely in his advantage, beyond the point of reasonability for this hand. He never has a hand that beats mine, he has AA or KQo with the heart or QQ with the heart 80% of the time, calls my raise with AK 25% of the time he has it and bets it (which indicates he's ready to fold it), yet raising is still the preferred play.


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[BruceZ]

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Okay, I decided to try and find the point where calling is better than raising. Here's an extremely unrealistic handset, tipped way in my opponents favor:

I'm ahead and he won't call a raise : 0%
I'm ahead and he will call a raise : 0%
I'm behind and he won't call a raise : 0%
I'm behind and he will call/reraise a raise : 80%
I'm chopping and he won't call a raise : 15%
I'm chopping and he will call a raise : 5%

EV of folding : +0.00 BB's
EV of calling : +0.70 BB's
EV of raising : +0.85 BB's

This is obviously weighted hugely in his advantage, beyond the point of reasonability for this hand. He never has a hand that beats mine, he has AA or KQo with the heart or QQ with the heart 80% of the time, calls my raise with AK 25% of the time he has it and bets it (which indicates he's ready to fold it), yet raising is still the preferred play.


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raising: EV = -2*80% + 14*15% + 7*5% = +0.85 BB

calling: EV = -1*80% + 6.5*20% = +0.5 BB

His calling calculation is wrong because he apparently used 7.5 instead of 6.5 for the chop. You don't count your own call that you get back, and after your opponent gets his bet back, you split half of a 13 bet pot or 6.5 bets.


There is also a problem with the pot counting pre-flop:

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MP limps, Hero raises in the CO w/ A K. Button calls cold, SB 3-bets, MP calls, Hero caps, everyone calls.

Flop: (13 SBs)

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This should be 17 SBs since 4 players are in for the 4 bet cap plus the folded big blind.

[oreogod]

thanks for the help. much appreiciated.