30-60 party --- folded the winning hand

[Brian R]

6 handed party 30-60 hand. First orbit of the game, no reads on any of the players yet. I'm dealt 99 in UTG +1. UTG raises, I 3 bet and SB caps it. The flop is Kc 4c 4x. SB bets, UTG calls I muck. Turn is 2c and river is 5x. SB bet turn and river. UTG calls down and takes down the pot with 77. SB had Ac Qx.

Did I play this hand ok?

Brian R.

[DeeJ]

way ahead way behind? (ducks under desk)

[tongni]

I usually peel the flop here, the pot's kinda big and maybe I'll hit a 9 and I want to see the turn action too.

[stigmata]

Party 30/60 6-handed so I imagine it's a pretty wild game. Would nobody stick in a raise on the flop and try to see where were at? The pots big enough that we probably have the best hand often enough? If we get played back at we can confidently fold. Otherwise bet a safe turn and check through river.

Maybe i'm being results orientated though: It's probably best not to post the results in your title!

**********************


Board: Kc 4c 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.6221 % 25.61% 01.01% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 24.0309 % 23.46% 00.57% { 99 }
Hand 3: 49.3470 % 48.07% 01.27% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }

I'm probably being over-generous with hand ranges above.

[nummerfire]

You are getting 15:1 on the flop call. I think you have to take one off due to your implied odds and the small chance that nobody is betting on the turn.

[JohnnyHumongous]

You shouldn't have posted results... I'm sure it affects people's perceptions...

I think it's a solid flop fold in my opinion. If you had a read that SB is capable of capping AQ you could probably find a flop raise and take it from there, but I think it's a fine fold with no reads.

[OnkelHotte]

does anybody fold 99 vs UTG raise?

[MattiasL]

Since this is such a bluff friendly flop, I would probably call and see the turn action. But if the SB still runs the turn semi bluff and UTG calls I would drop, so maybe my line would just lose 1 SB more than yours on this hand.

[LarsVegas]

In a full ringgame, you wouldn't be giving up much by folding 99 before the cutoff versus an UTG raise from an averagely/randomly tight player or tighter.

However, 6-handed, it's a quite clear play against an UTG raise (however, the pairs decrease pretty quickly in value, so eights would be borderline, but usually playable here too - sevens are a fold for me usually).

Lars

[LarsVegas]

Other than that you don't elaborate on how you mean the WBWA "situation" should influence his line, I don't think it's a WBWA ahead situation at all.

lars

[wdcbooks]

You really need to raise the flop. You have position which buys you a free card if you decide to take it. You got a great flop for 99. One overcard and it isn't the ace.

This is a case where you really need information about the quality of your hand. If you are three bet you can almost certainly fold with a clear conscience. If you are called and checked to on the turn I think you are likely to have the best hand and can bet most cards for value.

As a HUSH lurker and occasional poster it strikes me that you played this hand the way a full ring player might, but in a short handed game your 99 is a much more powerful hand and should be treated as such.

So you are getting 11:1 on the flop if I'm not misstaken. You have 23:1 to get the nine if you call which means it is enough for you to have the best hand 4-5% of the time. With this in mind I cannot see how it could be correct to fold, since you also have position. Clearly SB has you beaten most of the time but you cannot be sure. Therefore Raise of Call on the flop would be the only options. I think a solid case could be made for both. Fold could only be in option if you had a really good read on SB.

[eviljeff]

[ QUOTE ]
So you are getting 11:1 on the flop if I'm not misstaken. You have 23:1 to get the nine if you call which means it is enough for you to have the best hand 4-5% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

can you show how you got the 4-5% estimate?

[MattiasL]

[ QUOTE ]
So you are getting 11:1 on the flop if I'm not misstaken. You have 23:1 to get the nine if you call which means it is enough for you to have the best hand 4-5% of the time. With this in mind I cannot see how it could be correct to fold, since you also have position. Clearly SB has you beaten most of the time but you cannot be sure. Therefore Raise of Call on the flop would be the only options. I think a solid case could be made for both. Fold could only be in option if you had a really good read on SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop you get 15:1 (threeway cap preflop + BB = 13 bets + flop bet and call = 15). You are are almost getting the implied odds to call and spike the nine (you need to get more than 4 more BBs on average - counting the times you get beaten), so you only need a small extra edge to get to +EV.

The problem is that even if you are indeed best you cant call a turn bet UI, so you play for a combination of the two possibilities
1. You spike the nine and win
2. You have the best hand AND none of the opponents bet the turn to fold you AND you do not get outdrawn.

Just having the best hand on the flop is not enough to win.

A flop raise would slash your pot odds which modifies the situation.