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View Full Version : Slight favorite or big dog. Take it or leave it?

FreakDaddy
11-23-2005, 01:40 AM
Welcome to the table. Second hand. My only thinking is, if someone has the flush here, why raise so much? Even if it's a baby flush it seems a little large in comparison to the money put in and pot size. I have a strong feeling I'm ahead to K or J with a possible high heart like AJ, KQ. Set of 44's is also possible of course, but seems more unlikely(cold call a mini-bet with players still to act on that board?) So would you just dump this? There's still a player left to act that cold called my raise. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($39.40)
BB ($18.48)
UTG ($35.35)
UTG+1 ($16.05)
MP1 ($49.30)
<font color="#C00000">MP2 ($27.45)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($24.75)</font>
CO ($19.20)
Button ($11.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.35) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $0.25</font>, MP2 calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, Button calls $2.50, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $20</font>, Hero calls $22 (All-In), Button folds, MP2 calls $4.50.

Turn: ($53.10) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: ($53.10) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $53.10
11-23-2005, 01:43 AM
looks to me like your the dog.
beavens
11-23-2005, 01:44 AM
i like it a lot until i see the 4 flush on the river /images/graemlins/frown.gif
FreakDaddy
11-23-2005, 01:46 AM
What's your reasoning?
beavens
11-23-2005, 01:51 AM
[ QUOTE ]
What's your reasoning?

[/ QUOTE ]

who?
FreakDaddy
11-23-2005, 01:54 AM
If you click reply on this forum it posts under the previous posters comment/question. Not sure if you were aware of this or not, but perhaps quoting is better. So my question was directed to perfect.

BUT I'll take your reasoning if you'd offer it as well. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
beavens
11-23-2005, 01:57 AM
[ QUOTE ]
If you click reply on this forum it posts under the previous posters comment/question. Not sure if you were aware of this or not, but perhaps quoting is better. So my question was directed to perfect.

BUT I'll take your reasoning if you'd offer it as well. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

ah yes, i usually dont pay attention to that, i look at quotes more often /images/graemlins/smile.gif

i think you're ahead against someone with xh/xx and they're putting it allin on a draw.

just my donkish 2 cents though
FreakDaddy
11-23-2005, 01:59 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you click reply on this forum it posts under the previous posters comment/question. Not sure if you were aware of this or not, but perhaps quoting is better. So my question was directed to perfect.

BUT I'll take your reasoning if you'd offer it as well. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

ah yes, i usually dont pay attention to that, i look at quotes more often /images/graemlins/smile.gif

i think you're ahead against someone with xh/xx and they're putting it allin on a draw.

just my donkish 2 cents though

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand what you believe, but what about the sequence of play indicates this to you?
beavens
11-23-2005, 02:08 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you click reply on this forum it posts under the previous posters comment/question. Not sure if you were aware of this or not, but perhaps quoting is better. So my question was directed to perfect.

BUT I'll take your reasoning if you'd offer it as well. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

ah yes, i usually dont pay attention to that, i look at quotes more often /images/graemlins/smile.gif

i think you're ahead against someone with xh/xx and they're putting it allin on a draw.

just my donkish 2 cents though

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand what you believe, but what about the sequence of play indicates this to you?

[/ QUOTE ]

because when there is a monotone flop and someone is holding Ax, where 'x' is the suite, then you will definitely see them become overly aggro with it hoping to hit the flush by the river and get paid off.
11-23-2005, 02:08 AM
If villan is able to 3bet a raiser and a caller with one pair, he is a horrible donk but you dont see this as often enough to make this call correct. I believe with this action either has set/flush draw, or possibly even the same hand. It is again possible hes making this move with Ahx but again it wont happen offten enough to make this call correct.
FreakDaddy
11-23-2005, 02:18 AM
[ QUOTE ]
If villan is able to 3bet a raiser and a caller with one pair, he is a horrible donk but you dont see this as often enough to make this call correct. I believe with this action either has set/flush draw, or possibly even the same hand. It is again possible hes making this move with Ahx but again it wont happen offten enough to make this call correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. I'd put him on a made hand, like flush OR I'm a slight favorite, something like TP or MP with high heart broadway. I rule out a set almost entirely. Look at the action again. Is a set calling a mini-bet with players left to act on this draw heavy of a board? Doubt it. One pair with a flush draw he's only a slight dog and may have fold equity. I really don't know how much he understands about the game though because it's only my second hand at the table.
11-23-2005, 02:39 AM
sorry i meant to say flush, not flush draw.
FreakDaddy
11-23-2005, 02:40 AM
Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
MP2 has Ks Qh (flush, king high).
Hero has Jc Kc (two pair, kings and jacks).
Outcome: MP2 wins $53.10. </font>
11-23-2005, 03:17 AM
hmm... from seeing the results i now see what i neglected to notice before, a K protecting his hand and probably hoping not to get called, but if he did, he hoped his H was a live out.
orange
11-23-2005, 04:31 AM
I think villan has a combo draw (pair+flush) like A/images/graemlins/heart.gifKx or KxQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif

cards: win:
Ah Kd 44.55%
Kc Jc 54.95%

I think you are a marginal favorite. I take it.
rachelwxm
11-23-2005, 12:03 PM
The possible range of hands including 2 pair set, small flush or pair+flush draw.

Since he called the initial min bet, I don't think it is very likely that he has 2 pair or set. Therefore, you are either close race or a huge dog. I would probably fold here.
11-23-2005, 12:19 PM
[ QUOTE ]
if someone has the flush here, why raise so much? Even if it's a baby flush it seems a little large in comparison to the money put in and pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I had low suited connectors Im pushing here just like he did. Hes screwed if another heart comes off.
11-23-2005, 12:23 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I think villan has a combo draw (pair+flush) like A/images/graemlins/heart.gifKx or KxQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif

cards: win:
Ah Kd 44.55%
Kc Jc 54.95%

I think you are a marginal favorite. I take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villian limped in. I think hes more likely to have Ah2h then AhKx imo
11-23-2005, 12:45 PM
My gut reaction here is that he has a pair and a flush draw. Not sure what other hand plays like this. A made baby flush probably leads out for the pot and a nut flush slow-plays. Any other strong hand that is not a flush has to lead out with a strong bet. However, at these stakes on Party, this guy could have any 2. Either way, I think the call is very questionable since your either a small fav or huge dog. I'd probably fold and look to get my money in the middle in a better situation.