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deception5

11-22-2005, 10:40 PM

Opponents seem normal although I have less than 20 hands. Any comments appreciated!

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, CO caps, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, CO calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (16 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, CO bets, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (20 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, CO bets, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 22 BB

Nick C

11-22-2005, 10:46 PM

It looks good to me.

I'd probably make a crying call on the river, hoping CO decided to bet his QQ when checked to on the turn and then decided against taking a free showdown, but I can see why you folded.

I think you have UTG beat though (or maybe you're tied with him).

deception5

11-22-2005, 11:35 PM

Thanks for the quick response - was curious what people would think of that river fold. Didn't think folding the turn was an option - but would anyone bet here?

ZenMusician

11-22-2005, 11:48 PM

I don't think you can bet into 4 stragglers here (when their Ax hits).

This hand was played very well IMO. NH

-ZEN

gh9801

11-23-2005, 01:22 AM

I play it the same

deception5

11-23-2005, 10:46 AM

Appreciate the feedback, thanks all!

TripleH68

11-23-2005, 11:33 AM

An A is in UTGs range of hands for sure. So when he calls the turn and river it looks like a good ace.

I think the turn peel is fine. I despise these hands because even a moron sees you have KK-JJ when you check and call this turn.

gopnik

11-23-2005, 12:04 PM

So, what is the point of peeling on the turn? That pot is 17BB, you need 22BB, and K /images/graemlins/club.gif is a dirty out. Plus, somebody could reraise behind you.
I think if you call the turn you need to call the river as well.

TripleH68

11-23-2005, 12:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So, what is the point of peeling on the turn? That pot is 17BB, you need 22BB, and K /images/graemlins/club.gif is a dirty out. Plus, somebody could reraise behind you.
I think if you call the turn you need to call the river as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot is 19BB back to hero, but I see your point on the dirty out. Hmmmm.

deception5

11-23-2005, 12:26 PM

Yeah good point about the dirty out... I am closing the action though and the pot is 19BB to me. Would be a whole lot better if I had K /images/graemlins/club.gif.

Nick C

11-23-2005, 01:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah good point about the dirty out... I am closing the action though and the pot is 19BB to me. Would be a whole lot better if I had K /images/graemlins/club.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another potential problem is that one of your kings could easily be in CO's hand.

It's difficult, though, because I don't think he has to have an ace here. All of a sudden everyone's acting scared, and he's betting when it was checked to him.

I think he probably has AK, and he might have an even bigger monster, but I'm still not entirely convinced we're beat.

11-23-2005, 01:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's difficult, though, because I don't think he has to have an ace here. All of a sudden everyone's acting scared, and he's betting when it was checked to him.

I think he probably has AK, and he might have an even bigger monster, but I'm still not entirely convinced we're beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what I was thinking.

11-23-2005, 01:17 PM

You need to slightly discount your 2 outs because of club flush potential and a chance of CO holding AA. If you discount the outs by .25, then you have 1.75 outs on the turn, which requires ~25-1 for a correct call. The pot is laying you 19-1, so you will need to earn six more bets on the river to break even.

How do we get an additional 6BB of value? If we assume a 4% that your hand is good unimproved (this % falls in line with your tough river fold), then that adds .76BB of value if the river gets checked through. The other 5.24 bets will need to come from your opponents' river action when you improve. This action is certainly possible with three opponents, but it is far from guaranteed.

And I am not factoring in the reverse implied odds if you hit a dirty Kc or if CO has AA.

I think the turn is a fold unless you have a good reason to believe your hand is ahead unimproved more than 8% of the time. You did not demonstrate this belief with your river fold, getting 22-1.

-Andrew

deception5

11-23-2005, 01:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Another potential problem is that one of your kings could easily be in CO's hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely - I think his likely holdings are QQ/KK/AA/AK. His flop call of 3 bets would be a little strange with AKo, but it's definitely possible as the pot is huge.

[ QUOTE ]
It's difficult, though, because I don't think he has to have an ace here. All of a sudden everyone's acting scared, and he's betting when it was checked to him.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree - my thought here was that KK/QQ would check behind on the river so I could safely fold if it was a bet and a call to me. Also unless it's A /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif, AK is going to pay me off on the river and it's probably worth a c/r.

[ QUOTE ]
I think he probably has AK, and he might have an even bigger monster, but I'm still not entirely convinced we're beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

deception5

11-23-2005, 01:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the turn is a fold unless you have a good reason to believe your hand is ahead unimproved more than 8% of the time. You did not demonstrate this belief with your river fold, getting 22-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'm ahead of CO way more than 8% of the time on the turn. This could easily be QQ/KK betting with the plan of taking a free showdown or even QQ hoping KK will fold. When he doesn't take the free showdown when offered I think that the chance I have the best hand has been diminished drastically.

11-23-2005, 03:05 PM

This question may be dumb, but: why call the turn bet and fold at the river? I agree with the fold 100%, but why the turn bet?

deception5

11-23-2005, 03:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This question may be dumb, but: why call the turn bet and fold at the river? I agree with the fold 100%, but why the turn bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

My thought was I'm getting ~20:1 and hit a set almost that often. Also we don't know if this guy is betting with QQ/KK planning to take a free showdown. On the river we know that he's not taking it.

avisco01

11-23-2005, 03:40 PM

I'm thinking this is played about as flawlessly as possible. I'd have folded on the turn, not saying that is correct, its just what I would have done here. You clearly are getting a large price, and if you hit a set it will likely be good, although the K /images/graemlins/club.gif is dangerous as has already been mentioned. I usually analyze things a bit too cut and dry. Once the A appears on the turn I'm more than 90% sure that I'm beat and have little chance of drawing out so I'm out of there on the turn.

deception5

11-23-2005, 04:23 PM

Thanks again for all the great feedback. Since I think the hand has been pretty well hashed over, the results were that CO had the other KK, UTG had QQ, but I felt pretty good about the way I played it.

The more I thought about it the more it made sense for CO to bet the river (no one showed any resistance when the ace came) with KK here. I think it was just lucky for him that he had position on me. I still need to split here 1 time in 10 to make this a good call and I'm not convinced that I'm ever ahead here against 2 players - I'm guessing this is a 1 in 20 or so case.