Value - NFL vs. NBA

[Karmadog]

I just got into this less than a week ago sports betting, just doing this for fun, for now.

Anyway, my first initial reaction is there is alot more value in NBA picks vs. NFL picks. The house seems to have a much bigger edge in NFL games. Switching over to the NBA it almost looks like the house is begging for action with their lines. I guess the house gets alot of action on NFL games and that's why they push for a bigger edge with those games. Is this traditionally what the house does?

[bills217]

I'm not experienced enough to speculate on house motives, but I will say that IMO the NFL has less value than any other sport, especially for a bettor who strictly handicaps. There is a ton of parody and nearly every game turns on the outcome of 1 or 2 plays or calls. The edges tend to be very small. (Think how many games are affected by 50-yard pass interference calls that could've gone either way. That rule should be changed.)

[NoChance]

It's probably just me but I find the NFL much easier than the NBA. In the NFL you can match offense vs defense and teams have identities. I can't see that as well in the NBA. To me the NBA is much more about emotions and being up or down for a game as there are only 5 guys on the court. NFL is more a team sport.

I don't even bother picking the NBA anymore. I rely on following others on various boards who seem to be hot and have a knack for it. I am goofy so what I just said probably makes no sense at all. NFL and NCAA basketball are what I find the easiest. NBA is the one I find the toughest.

[MCS]

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There is a ton of parody and nearly every game turns on the outcome of 1 or 2 plays or calls. The edges tend to be very small. (Think how many games are affected by 50-yard pass interference calls that could've gone either way. That rule should be changed.)

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You mean "parity," and parity is not the reason the NFL is hard to beat.

[Uglyowl]

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You mean "parity," and parity is not the reason the NFL is hard to beat.

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Correct, the more a game is followed the harder it is to beat since the line will generally be accurate.

The best games to bet are the small conference college games that you have knowledge on.

[tech]

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Correct, the more a game is followed the harder it is to beat since the line will generally be accurate.


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Not really. For example, look at the line in the NE/Indy playoff game last year.

[DougOzzzz]

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Correct, the more a game is followed the harder it is to beat since the line will generally be accurate.


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Not really. For example, look at the line in the NE/Indy playoff game last year.

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Or the NE/Indy game this year. Indy should have been 40 point favorites (NE got lucky to keep it somewhat close).

[lastchance]

Or the Yankees/Angels and Red Sox/CWS Divisional Playoff lines.

[DougOzzzz]

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There is a ton of parody and nearly every game turns on the outcome of 1 or 2 plays or calls. The edges tend to be very small. (Think how many games are affected by 50-yard pass interference calls that could've gone either way. That rule should be changed.)

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You mean "parity," and parity is not the reason the NFL is hard to beat.

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No, I think he meant parody. Afterall, it is pretty funny how 1 or 2 plays effects the outcome of the game.

[TheGame1020]

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Correct, the more a game is followed the harder it is to beat since the line will generally be accurate.

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This couldn't be farther from the truth.

[Mr_J]

"The house seems to have a much bigger edge in NFL games."

Their take on the overall action on either sport is 4.5% at most books (excluding low vig days). Of course this doesn't mean their edge actually is 4.5%, it would only be if they had set the perfect line, or had balanced the action, which kinda brings me to my next point.

Yes bookies will often aim for an even greater edge, by offering even poorer value on one side. This side is usually the side that squares bet on. So while in theory you should only lose at a rate of 4.5% if you're a square, you will probally lose at an even worse rate for betting into shaded sides.

HOWEVER, this is related to your next question:

"I guess the house gets alot of action on NFL games and that's why they push for a bigger edge with those games. Is this traditionally what the house does?"

The house is not going to take as strong a position (if any at all) on a game with a significant amount of action (for the bookie), because there is significantly larger risk. This might be moot, since a book might be so large that it can afford to take a strong position, but it's more likely that they can afford to take a position on an nba game than an nfl game since nfl attracts more action.

Back to this:

"Anyway, my first initial reaction is there is alot more value in NBA picks vs. NFL picks. The house seems to have a much bigger edge in NFL games."

So your conclusion is that the nba is a better sport to bet on because the house edge is smaller? Only if your squarer at nfl. The house edge for a coinflipper is the same for both sports.

[craig r]

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You mean "parity," and parity is not the reason the NFL is hard to beat.

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Correct, the more a game is followed the harder it is to beat since the line will generally be accurate.

The best games to bet are the small conference college games that you have knowledge on.

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I would disagree on the "small" conference games. I think before the Internet this was true, but now that there is so muc information out there, the lines are probably sharper than before. I remember having this conversation with WildBill (posts at TheRX now, but used to post a lot here).

craig