Dealing with a guy re-raising me light pre flop

[scdavis0]

Villain was certainly a thinking LAG, but maybe a little too loose/fancy for his own good. Stats on him were 50/16 over 350 hands. He was constantly re-raising my opening raises (my stats are 29/18). Unless he was on a huge rush he was almost certainly re-raising me light. Although he did elect to show me KK once.

When I called the re-raise pre-flop I decided I was certainly playing it for more than set value. Please note that the flop raise is not much more than pot sized.

Who likes?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

CO ($156.60)
Hero ($456.22)
SB ($224.20)
BB ($184.15)
UTG ($451.35)
MP ($51.62)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB (poster) raises to $29</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $23.

Flop: ($62) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $45</font>, Hero goes all-in $426.22

[beavens]

perhaps this isnt my style of play, and it IS very read dependent, but i can't think we're ahead here.

(i love how i am of ZERO help to this thread!!)

[BobboFitos]

ive done similar things. sometimes he folds, sometimes he calls. It depends how often he's reraising you light, as he wont laydown a better hand, obv, so you're moving in figuring to pick up ~80 when he has nothing, losing ~225 with 10% equity (or -200ish) meaning he needs to fold at a 20:8 clip to balance it out, or about 70% of the time. If he ever calls with a worst hand - like A4 - this play gains immense value (or takes a stand with improved AK, for example) which if you're like me, still only happens rarely. (when they REALLY get fed up) so thats a low %.

so what it comes down to is how often is he repoping 99+ vs everything else.

Most of the time this is OK, maybe pos EV, but involves alot of variance. I think I fold to the reraise as you're not given set odds, although calling and moving in on flops (like this) is the next best option.

[scdavis0]

He seemed to be tilting a little bit, and one reason that I liked my play is that I did expect an occassional crazy call from an A4/AK type hand. He called a pot sized bet of mine on the river once with AJ on a Q679Q board after I had checked the turn behind (I had 8T -- flush card hit on turn).

Your analysis of 70%~ folding clip is well noted and a bit alarming. Also, I have to think he folds 66 and 77 almost 100%.

[scdavis0]

Doing my own numbers isn't it more like I pick up $100 (the $100 in the pot) when he folds and lose 90% of the $150 that he has left (~$135) when he calls? Then he only has to fold like 58% of the time to make this profitable. And that's completely ignoring the few times I'll actually be ahead when he calls.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Doing my own numbers isn't it more like I pick up $100 (the $100 in the pot) when he folds and lose 90% of the $150 that he has left (~$135) when he calls? Then he only has to fold like 58% of the time to make this profitable. And that's completely ignoring the few times I'll actually be ahead when he calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Way I was thinking about it was net profit (your pf plan with calling the raise then attacking the pot, rather then assuming postflop on what to do; the differences in our numbers is I include the pf call of the reraise in one of the obstacles to overcome)

namely, you win the amount he expended pf + continuation bet when he doesn't call, (which was ~80) and lose your stack (or effective stack, which was ~225) with just ~2ish outs (so 10%, or about 20 equity, making net -200).

[fathertime]

You note that you are laggy/maniacal yourself. I often check call down maniacal lags. Once I beat them in a pot, they slow down if I call their flop bets and they are on air, which allows me to steal or value bet the river.

Whenever I try to play more aggressively against them, I seem to make the wrong move at the wrong time. Do you have any suggestions on how to counter a laggy/maniacal player, who plays well postflop?

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Doing my own numbers isn't it more like I pick up $100 (the $100 in the pot) when he folds and lose 90% of the $150 that he has left (~$135) when he calls? Then he only has to fold like 58% of the time to make this profitable. And that's completely ignoring the few times I'll actually be ahead when he calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Way I was thinking about it was net profit (your pf plan with calling the raise then attacking the pot, rather then assuming postflop on what to do; the differences in our numbers is I include the pf call of the reraise in one of the obstacles to overcome)

namely, you win the amount he expended pf + continuation bet when he doesn't call, (which was ~80) and lose your stack (or effective stack, which was ~225) with just ~2ish outs (so 10%, or about 20 equity, making net -200).

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your analysis, but it ignores my backup plan of occassionally flopping a set and winning a huge pot.

The true flop fold percent figure for profitability is probably somewhere in between my 58% and your 70% number when you factor this in.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]

I understand your analysis, but it ignores my backup plan of occassionally flopping a set and winning a huge pot.

The true flop fold percent figure for profitability is probably somewhere in between my 58% and your 70% number when you factor this in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, thats why I say it's probably slight pos EV, and I may play the same. But... as said... ( /images/graemlins/smile.gif ) huge variance.

[scdavis0]

Well since this hand was analyzed to my satisfaction I'll go ahead and post results. This may be the first time I've ever done that. I told the virtual dealer to "keep 'em low".

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

CO ($156.60)
Hero ($456.22)
SB ($224.20)
BB ($184.15)
UTG ($451.35)
MP ($51.62)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB (poster) raises to $29</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $23.

Flop: ($62) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $45</font>, Hero calls $426.22 (All-In), SB calls $149.20 (All-In).

Turn: ($682.42) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: ($682.42) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $682.42

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has Kc Kh (two pair, kings and fours).
Hero has 5c 5s (full house, fives full of fours).
Outcome: Hero wins $682.42. </font>

Villain went on a total rampage for about 5 minutes and then bounced.

i've seen the results, but i think this sucks.

[scdavis0]

thanks

[beavens]

big sookout!

it happens.. like i said, the play had the right idea behind it, but i dont have the balls to make it.

[scdavis0]

I think this hand presents us with an interesting catch 22 which is:

A. If he calls my flop raise all-in then I almost certainly had the implied odds to call pre flop in the first place (unless he has exactly 99 or something)

B. If he folds then he is obviously capable of re-raising big with something like AQ and then pounding the flop, making my pre-flop call + push undercard flop play profitable

Do you need to go allin, would a smaller bet do the same job?

[scdavis0]

If my line were to be raise to $100 and fold to all in I'd have to feel very strongly (basically 100%?) that this player would not put in an additional raise all in with a naked AK.

Also I feel like this sort of raise is pretty damn transparent. They want to "find out" if you have aces, so when you raise all-in they fold. I make this play with AK when once in a while when it feels right because it's a tremendous mathematical parlay. They fold very frequently and I still win 25% of the time when called.

I didn't feel this way about this guy. He was constantly making cute/LAG plays.

[Riverman]

This is poorly played. You risk your whole stack and are never going to be called by a worse hand. If you think he is on air let him keep firing, or better yet fold preflop (or limp in so he cant destroy your implied set odds by raising)

again, read the posts. BF has done some maths and accounts for it as a -$200 play.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
again, read the posts. BF has done some maths and accounts for it as a -$200 play.

[/ QUOTE ]

... No, only when you're called. The fact he folds (like when 55 is best hand) marginalizes the expected value.

Thing is, vs a nit this is burning money, and even vs an average player who WILL have 99+ and ALWAYS call it's negative, but in CERTAIN situations, like the one predescribed, I like it.

[emil3000]

Good times, reminds me of an almost exactly similar hand I played, where I was in villains shoes with KK and villain pushed with 66. I won that hand though.

how do you consider 4x your original raise (over 4x) to be a "light raise"? I think that is a perfect pf reraise that SHOULD get hands like 55 to fold.

BTW, nice catch! I would have laughed for the 5 mins he rambled on:)

sb raises buttons raise and bet 3/4 of the pot on the flop, most weak-tight 1/2 players dont do this air. i maybe wrong but i guess you are called here pretty much all the time.

[troymclur]

What made you go all in after a strong PF re-raise and a 2/3's pot continuation bet?

IMO, it looks like he's baiting you for an overly aggressive move like the one you made.

EDIT:

actually bothered to read the post. Given the info on the player, its not really a bad move, but i'm laying it down on the flop, and probably PF. What was his play like post flop?

You say the he was constantly re-raising you, but here he follows through, which makes me curious how he played against you at other times.

Can you list the hands that fold given the action?

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you list the hands that fold given the action?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unpaired big cards, 66, and 77.

[MTBlue]

You may get called by unpaired big cards. I played a similar style to yours this summer and I remember at least 3 incidents where my all in bets on flops like this were called by missed overs. I like the play (you probably have the best hand and may get called by worse hand) and if you are called you'll get light action from him most of the night.