Another SB/BB battle - play for it all? - $200 NL

[scdavis0]

I doubled up villain on his 60BB stack like 20 minutes prior. My JJ v his 77 on a 79T flop. My image is as usual very aggressive/maniac style. Villain is weakish from what I can tell.

My instinct at the table was that this is an insta call. Tempo on villain's c/r all-in was INSTA.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

SB ($337.70)
Hero ($255.26)
UTG ($199.20)
MP ($384.25)
Button ($69.22)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB (poster) raises to $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $19</font>, SB calls $14.

Flop: ($42) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $40</font>, SB calls $316.70 (All-In)

[beavens]

run away and live to fight another day.

feels like we're DOMINATED here by a larger pair.

[the machine]

call and if he setted you again then so be it. he will find out where he is at with an over pair 9 times out of 10 on this board. probably ak aqsuit and knows the board didnt hit you with you pf raise. the insta all in is why id call. just doesnt seem like a hand that can be beating you. i dont know what hand he could have that would check here postflop that could actually beat you

[the machine]

you really dont think an over pair here bets out at the pot. on a fairly connected board i think villian bets here given heros maniac style will not let him draw for free unless villian is good enough to know that hero will bet. what is your post flop bet% hero? this would make a difference in my call or fold

[beavens]

[ QUOTE ]
you really dont think an over pair here bets out at the pot. on a fairly connected board i think villian bets here given heros maniac style will not let him draw for free unless villian is good enough to know that hero will bet. what is your post flop bet% hero? this would make a difference in my call or fold

[/ QUOTE ]

could just have wanted to c/r.

[the machine]

i personally see a leading bet more often then not but your # of hands may be way higher then mine

[scdavis0]

Ok I ran his likely hand range through Poker Stove.

Seems like a trivial call.

Board: 9d 7h 6c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.4903 % 45.56% 01.93% { TcTh }
Hand 2: 52.5097 % 50.58% 01.93% { 66+, JTs, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, JTo, T8o+, 97o+, 87o }

That is one optimistic hand range.

[scdavis0]

Kathleen can you help me improve it? Can you develop a reasonable hand range where the 1.6+ to 1 that I'm getting is insufficient to call?

I fold this immediately.

I'm surprised everyone else seems on the fence. What do you think you're beating here?

Any overpair has you beat (JJ/QQ/KK/AA), and anyone mining a set has you beat. There's no draws otherwise...but.... wtf.... call $250 for tens??????

I'm not a great player, but this feels like an easy laydown to me. Find a better spot somewhere else.

i fold, 6 outs isnt enough here imo.

[scdavis0]

I'm only a 2 to 1 dog to all the sets, 88, and overpairs alone.

I'm getting 1.6+ to 1. He never has 98? 76? A8?

Really surprised at the tightness here. Like I said this feels like an insta call.

your range seems silly to me, 96s, t8o, 87o etc.

[scdavis0]

Do you play in this game? Are you saying that your range is SQUARELY a set or an overpair? I would play a 98 in exactly the same way that villain played this hand, and it's not close.

no i play 3/6, 5/10 10/20 short on a different site. i only play party for limit for which i suck at.

[BobboFitos]

Hey davis... I like your instinct, and I think I would call too.

I may avoid making that decision on the flop, however, in the future.

[scdavis0]

Can you kindly give me your hand range for villain. Is it squarely 66, 77, 99, JJ, the other TT, QQ, KK, and AA?

this is 1/2 right?

i'm quite happy to help/hinder, do you have any stats on villian?

[scdavis0]

Not anymore than about 30 hands worth. From the few hands I saw him play I felt like he was bad/donkish.

can you give what you have please?

[scdavis0]

70 hands, vpip 43%, pfr 15%

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey davis... I like your instinct, and I think I would call too.

I may avoid making that decision on the flop, however, in the future.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the contrary, don't you almost invite a c/r all in in this situation? Short of flopping a set, it doesn't get much better for TT with regards to worse hands that will give you action/be overplayed in a sb/bb HU situation.

And I can think of worse spots to get it versus AA.

[ QUOTE ]
Is it squarely 66, 77, 99, JJ, the other TT, QQ, KK, and AA?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, but why do you include T8o given the action? 86s, etc? i think your range is wrong, i have played games similar, but not in a long time so i may be wrong!

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is it squarely 66, 77, 99, JJ, the other TT, QQ, KK, and AA?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, but why do you include T8o given the action? 86s, etc? i think your range is wrong, i have played games similar, but not in a long time so i may be wrong!

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll gladly take the nuts out of his probable hand range if it makes you feel better. I'm wondering what 6 max NL games you play in where players won't come in for a raise with a 98 suited in a sb/bb battle and then call a reasonable re-raise? Do you only raise big pairs?

You really need to give me your hand range before we have anything to debate about. So far you are only giving me all the sets and overpairs.

[Riverman]

Im calling unless the guy has given me reason to think hes different than most players at this limit

You have a manic image, so why wouldn't her c/r you allin with an over pair? As i have said before, i don't play 1/2 but they seem weak from what i remembet, T7s, 96s 76s, T8s 97o, 87o. Come on esp the off suit hands. Most hands that c/r allin have you beat.

he is betting 320 to win 100, do you think a weak tight does this? A weak passive? A Lag?

[scdavis0]

I never discounted that he can have JJ-AA. It's in my hand range for villain.

Are you ever going to give me a hand range? Like ever? Am I just supposed to put him on pocket jokers and fold?

[ QUOTE ]
Are you ever going to give me a hand range? Like ever? Am I just supposed to put him on pocket jokers and fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hand range given the action a PP higher than your, oh must be high, a hand you beat, must be low.

[scdavis0]

dude wtf are you babbling about?

post the results, this seems like a waste of time because you want me to draw you a map and i refuse to do it.

also, count the number of poster who agree with your play!

[soko]

Insta all-in smells a whole lot like a frusturated AK missing the flop in a big pot.

AA-JJ are all going to reraise you before the flop, he is out of position and knows you are being agressive, his call is telling me he has to overcards.

[poincaraux]

The other guy isn't going to give you a range. I'm not really experienced enough to give you a range either, but I just read one of fimbulwinter's old posts that talked about ranges. Battle of the blinds hands that raise-call for him are 99,88,77,KQs,JQs,JTs,KJs,QTs,9Ts,89s,78s,67s,56s,4 5s

You're way ahead of that range, but I don't think that whole range check-raises all in here. If you limit it to the hands that hit at all, you're still way ahead. If you limit it to the hands that hit a little better, (99-77, 98s, 87s, 76s, 54s), you're still up ~60:40. If you add all of the overpairs back in, you're behind 40:60. You're getting 186:308==1.66:1 which is a little better than that.

Huh. I woulda folded, but it's looking more like a call here. This is very surprising to me. Especially since I've been telling myself to stop going broke with overpairs. The gutshot adds quite a bit here. Can anyone more experienced give me an idea of how relevant fimbulwinter's hand ranges are for modelling villains?

Fim is a good player, most 1/2's aren't.

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]

post the results, this seems like a waste of time because you want me to draw you a map and i refuse to do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
also, count the number of poster who agree with your play!

[/ QUOTE ]


ROFL. Draw you a map? I'm asking you to get beyond -- "this sucks".. "this is good" empty zero NOTHING analysis.

And I'm done trying.

[ QUOTE ]
Not anymore than about 30 hands worth. From the few hands I saw him play I felt like he was bad/donkish.

Post Extras:


[/ QUOTE ]

hmmm

[ QUOTE ]
70 hands, vpip 43%, pfr 15%

[/ QUOTE ]

was feeling the same thing!

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
The gutshot adds quite a bit here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.. yes it does. It's v interesting to do the same analysis giving me QQ or JJ.

[RiverFenix]

You sucked out on his set earlier with your JJ. When a player does that to me Im more likely to fast play my strong flops against the same player.

On the same end, im likely to attempt to make more moves too /images/graemlins/smile.gif

This is a tough call for me that I probably wouldnt make w/o a better read

[scdavis0]

I didn't suckout. His set held up when I had JJ.

Sb raises to 6, you reraise to 19. for me most 1/2 players fold t7s, 96s, 86s, jto. They deff dont call 97o, t8o let alone c/r allin. I think your range is wrong and have said so, you seem to think given the action these hands are likely! Why?

[scdavis0]

Can you please give me your hand range. You stated earlier that it is wider than 66, 77, 99, the other TT, QQ, JJ, KK, and AA yet you stubbornly refuse to include a single other hand as a possibility.

Why? If your hand range is strictly the sets and overpairs then just say so. We can disagree on the correct course of action (call/fold) because our hand ranges differ a great deal.

An interesting note.. if you MUST have a pocket pair to call a re-raise in a SB/BB battle, then my flop bet is CLEARLY TERRIBLE, yet you don't comment on it. Why?

[poincaraux]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The gutshot adds quite a bit here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes.. yes it does. It's v interesting to do the same analysis giving me QQ or JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]
Oops .. of course, I *did* do that analysis. That's why I said that the gutshot adds quite a bit. I just got tired of posting numbers, but maybe I should have included more. Actually, I only did it with JJ. In pennance, I'll do JJ and QQ for two cases:

ThTc vs. 99-77, 98s, 87s, 76s, 54s is ahead 59:42
JhJc vs. 99-77, 98s, 87s, 76s, 54s is behind 45:55
QhQc vs. 99-77, 98s, 87s, 76s, 54s is behind 44:56

ThTc vs. AA-77, 98s, 87s, 76s, 54s is behind 41:59
JhJc vs. AA-77, 98s, 87s, 76s, 54s is behind 36:64
QhQc vs. AA-77, 98s, 87s, 76s, 54s is behind 45:55

Lesson 1) gutshots add a lot here.
Lesson 2) it helps to know how villain will play big pairs pre-flop.

Thanks for your followup .. it pointed out the importance of lesson 2 /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[poincaraux]

[ QUOTE ]
Fim is a good player, most 1/2's aren't.

[/ QUOTE ]
I totally believe you about this. I just don't really know what it means. That is, I don't know enough (yet! /images/graemlins/grin.gif) to really know what most 1/2's have here.

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fim is a good player, most 1/2's aren't.

[/ QUOTE ]
I totally believe you about this. I just don't really know what it means. That is, I don't know enough (yet! /images/graemlins/grin.gif) to really know what most 1/2's have here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea what it means either. I guess he means that bad 1/2 players are very likely to have the goods when they give a lot of action ? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Voltron87]

pretty easy fold IMO

i bet 30 on the flop

Where did i show you i feel his range is wider than 66, 77, 99, qq, jj , kk , aa? To check/raise allin for 3 times the pot i figure his range must be close to the hands listed. Add a few more like A9 K9 and you are still in bad shape.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

50,490 games 0.005 secs 10,098,000 games/sec

Board: 9d 7h 6c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.1103 % 41.76% 00.35% { TcTh }
Hand 2: 57.8897 % 57.54% 00.35% { JJ+, 99, 77-66, AQs+, A9s, KQs, K9s }

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
Where did i show you i feel his range is wider than 66, 77, 99, qq, jj , kk , aa? To check/raise allin for 3 times the pot i figure his range must be close to the hands listed. Add a few more like A9 K9 and you are still in bad shape.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

50,490 games 0.005 secs 10,098,000 games/sec

Board: 9d 7h 6c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.1103 % 41.76% 00.35% { TcTh }
Hand 2: 57.8897 % 57.54% 00.35% { JJ+, 99, 77-66, AQs+, A9s, KQs, K9s }

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh.. you realize that I have odds to call against YOUR range right?

Just to add i very much doubt someone is c/r allin with KQs or AQs+, i've just added them to add some sort of bluffing balance.

[scdavis0]

Let me know when you finalize your range then.

yes, but this is in best the best case i can see. How much better does it get if you remove unpaired hands?

Look, this is a waste of time, you obv think you made the right play and you have to think you have him beat/have odds to draw enough of the time. Quite a few people have chimed in to say they disagree with you, I've given you the best case you can hope for(which you should call) but there are many cases where you should fold. I think this is a call given your range (stated before) but i think you are way to loose.

[poincaraux]

[ QUOTE ]
Just to add i very much doubt someone is c/r allin with KQs or AQs+, i've just added them to add some sort of bluffing balance.

[/ QUOTE ]
For those of you playing along at home, some interesting ranges are:

vs. AA-JJ,99,77,66,K9s,A9s,AKs,AQs,KQs where the suited hands match one of the board cards: behind 38:62.

take out AKs,AQs,KQs: behind 29:71
take out K9s: behind 27:73
take out everything but sets and overpairs: behind 23:77

Lesson 3) villain should play looser against have_it_all.

Thanks to both of you. I'm learning more about how to put villain on a range here, and it's interesting to see different opinions.

[scdavis0]

I have no idea how you gave me the best case scenario. You put him on squarely a set, an overpair, with a small possibility of a bluff. This seems closer to the typical or maybe even worst case scenario.

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
take out everything but sets and overpairs: behind 23:77

[/ QUOTE ]

and if you give him as little extra as an 88 or a 9-8 suited to this range the numbers swing dramatically

[ QUOTE ]
Lesson 3) villain should play looser against have_it_all.



[/ QUOTE ]

your missing the point. most 1/2 players don't play how i would nor how OP does. They have you beat here more than you can say. My range is (IMO) far to wide, but i feel the nned to add hands, just for the sake of it.

just to add, do you still agree with this range

66+, JTs, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, JTo, T8o+, 97o+, 87o?

One last try, do you think this range is good, AA-JJ,99,77,66,K9s,A9s,AKs,AQs,KQs?

How about this, AA-JJ,99,77,66,K9s,A9s?

Or this, AA-JJ,99,77,66,A9s?

What about AA-JJ,99,77,66?

[scdavis0]

I can't fathom that you have no concept of your opponents playing connected cards. In your mind they either have TPTK, a set, or an overpair.

[ QUOTE ]
I can't fathom that you have no concept of your opponents playing connected cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

i can't fathom that you have no concept that most 1/2 won't c/r allin with a suited connector!

Can someone else chime in and back up either my arguement or his.

[savman]

how did he play his set? has he been check folding a lot of raised pots? have u been moving him off of hands? has he moved his stack in anytime other than when he had the set? u say he is weak, do u mean weak tight? if so, calling here is bad. (although i beleive if u push a weak tightie enough they will push/look u up just out of spite)

[poincaraux]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lesson 3) villain should play looser against have_it_all.



[/ QUOTE ]

your missing the point. most 1/2 players don't play how i would nor how OP does. They have you beat here more than you can say. My range is (IMO) far to wide, but i feel the nned to add hands, just for the sake of it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Although I may not have worded it so well, I think I actually got the point here: you're saying that most of these folks are way tighter than fimbulwinter's range here. If they loosened up here, they'd be a lot more profitable against thinking folks (you, the OP, fimbulwinter .. someday, maybe even me!). That's what I meant by "villain should play looser against have_it_all." And I *do* understand that you're saying his range is very limited considering the pre-flop and flop action. The discussion about that range has been the most useful thing in this thread. Any monkey can plug these ranges in and find out the equity like I've done. The advantage of 2+2 is that I can poll more experienced players and get a good idea of what the appropriate ranges really are *now* instead of playing 300k hands and looking back only at my own results. Hmmn .. maybe that's why people also datamine.

[poincaraux]

[ QUOTE ]
One last try, do you think this range is good, AA-JJ,99,77,66,K9s,A9s,AKs,AQs,KQs?

How about this, AA-JJ,99,77,66,K9s,A9s?

Or this, AA-JJ,99,77,66,A9s?

What about AA-JJ,99,77,66?

[/ QUOTE ]
Did you really mean this reply for me? I've tried to be pretty clear in this thread: I'm good at figuring out how we stack up against various ranges. I'm a newbie, though, and I'm not nearly as good at putting the villain on one of those ranges.

For what it's worth, assuming that the suited hands have to match one of the cards on the flop, here are my guesses: the first should be pretty close to 40:60. The second one should be more like 35:65 (i still don't like bad guy having K9s here), and the last one should be more like 30:70. Results:

vs. AA-JJ,99,77,66,K9s,A9s,AKs,AQs,KQs: 38:62
vs. AA-JJ,99,77,66,K9s,A9s: 30:70
vs. AA-JJ,99,77,66,A9s: 27:73
(removing other hands here just makes it worse)

so we're worse than i expected .. but at least my intuition was good enough to fold when required here.