Can I value bet this river?

[Stealthy]

UTG is a half decent TAG 18/12/2.3 and I have not been in any pots with them before this hand.


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Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (10 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (16 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero?

Given the action this looks like AA, KK or QQ all the way, the only other hand that could have been played this way is AK diamonds but the river takes that posibility away. I initially thought that there was no way I could value bet with a 4 flush on board but maybe I can!

I will give my thoughts in a little while.

[TheMainEvent]

You say he's TAG and decent, I think he's folding a black KK or QQ often, and he's def calling anything that beats you. If you said he was a calling station I might bet, but not against anyone half decent.

[Stealthy]

[ QUOTE ]
You say he's TAG and decent, I think he's folding a black KK or QQ sometimes, and he's def calling anything that beats you. If you said he was a calling station I might bet, but not against anyone half decent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Won't a TAG also make a crying call here without a diamond? The pot is huge and for one more BB he has to figure that there is at least a chance that I have no diamond.

EDIT. Anyway I only said he was half-decent which for me means reasonable for this level but nothing much beyond that. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[TheMainEvent]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You say he's TAG and decent, I think he's folding a black KK or QQ sometimes, and he's def calling anything that beats you. If you said he was a calling station I might bet, but not against anyone half decent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Won't a TAG also make a crying call here without a diamond? The pot is huge and for one more BB he has to figure that there is at least a chance that I have no diamond.

EDIT. Anyway I only said he was half-decent which for me means reasonable for this level but nothing much beyond that. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Well its read-dependant I guess cause if he's calling with KK or QQ 100% of the time I think you can value bet. His river check after 3-betting the turn tells me he probably doesn't have a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif but he could easily have A/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Anyone with a brain should be able to figure out that Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif just can't possibly be ahead here given the board and the action, but like you said he might call down anyways.

[jrz1972]

I think checking this down is fine. What will villain call with that we beat? KK or QQ? He knows those hands are no good, since we have to have either a flush, a set, or an A. AQ/AJ/AT might call but aren't consistent with the action on earlier streets. He'll call with TT, but then again he might be sitting on AA as well.

Furthermore, the threat of a check-raise is very real here. If villain is a decent TAG, why didn't he clarkmeister this river? Probably because he's looking at something like K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif and wants to induce a bet from a hand that is known to be strong.

There aren't many 2nd-bets hands for villain to pay off with, and he might already have his mouse hovering over the "raise" key. Looks like a good time to just show down.

[Stealthy]

I think the ace on the river here firmly tips this to a check behind as AA is a real posibilty for him to hold and also as others have said makes it more likely that he wiould not call with a hand that I beat. Without the 4th diamond being an ace I think his check tells me that he has no diamond and I can put another BB in and still perhaps get a call. I can also safely fold if I did get check-raised. Although going for a check-raise on a 4 flush board would be terrible I think.

I did check behind here and he had K /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif which he had overplayed IMO.

[MrWookie47]

I would cap the turn. I think this is a reasonable river check.

[TheMainEvent]

What's the deal with not capping the flop anyways? I this what you guys usually do in this spot?

[adsman]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is a half decent TAG 18/12/2.3

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, a decent TAG would have bet the river.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
What's the deal with not capping the flop anyways? I this what you guys usually do in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can forego capping the flop if you want to raise the turn instead of freezing him into calling down. Not capping the turn is much worse.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What's the deal with not capping the flop anyways? I this what you guys usually do in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can forego capping the flop if you want to raise the turn instead of freezing him into calling down. Not capping the turn is much worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

Board looks too dangerous to risk getting checkraised. Any diamond beats you, so you can't rely on value betting against an overplayed KK or QQ. I'd probably check it down.

ScottieK