Reverse Implied Odds example

[toby]

CO is pretty fishy. MP2 hasn't done anything out of line; he's 23/0/1.33 after 60 hands. Flop aggression was pretty low.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, CO calls, Hero ...

I am ahead of only 4 aces, and have no club. What's your line?

[sweetjazz]

I think folding is best, because your likelihood of having the best hand at showdown is not enough to cover your effective odds in getting to showdown. Calling and reevaluating on the turn is tempting, but I don't think you'll have much of a better idea where you stand on the turn than you do now (other than seeing a club fall, in which case you can check/fold).

Raising would be really really really bad here.

I don't think this is reverse implied odds I think this is having a crappy hand that is probably behind and even if it is ahead will probably become behind soon.

Reverse implied odds (in my opinion) refers to a draw that when it hit's will still be behind. If you have 87s on a flop of 655 against 65 for example.

[shant]

I think betting the flop is best.

[toby]

Reverse implied odds: The ratio of money now in the pot to the amount of money you will have to call to continue from the present round to the end of the hand (from ssh)

Where I left off, there are only 3 BB's in the pot. My pair of aces might be good now, but if not my chance of improving is slim. If I am best now, by the river that chance is much lower. This is almost straight out of SSH, with a weak made hand but multiple opponenets in a small pot = fold.

I deliberated a bit then folded.

[toby]

Are you betting to protect your hand, or scare ppl off from a monotone board?

What do you do on the turn if a club hits with multiple oppenents left? Just one opponent?

[AlexHoops]

This is one area of my game that needs to improve a lot before I can move up to 10/20 and higher. I always make this CR, figuring that I will push out the draws of give them incorrect odds to call me. If they all do call me with the draw, 2 of their outs are already in the other players hands.

"Raising would be really really really bad here." I have no doubt that you are correct. Help me see it your way.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Reverse implied odds (in my opinion) refers to a draw that when it hit's will still be behind. If you have 87s on a flop of 655 against 65 for example.


[/ QUOTE ]

There has been plenty of confusion as to the definitions of reverse implied, effective odds and so forth.

Some want to make it so that reverse implied odds refer to when you hit a draw, that might not be good if you do. An example would be like a flush draw on a paired board with a lot of action. However, the 2+2 authors normally have examples of made hands, and in TOP, the definition includes a statement to the effect "a hand that you think may be best now", and it gives an example of like AA on a monotone 89T board. So...there's some overlay here, and a mix of definitions now. This always seems to cause problems, and I wish the community would post some set definitions to be used in the form to avoid confusion.

[sweetjazz]

The reason check raising is bad is because people call too much, so you won't fold out better aces or high clubs. Plus you still have the original bettor to contend who either has you badly beaten or has a strong draw. With his position he can either extract more bets from you with his strong hands when you play aggressively, or draw cheaply with a high club when you play passively (check the turn).

As I think about it, raising might be better than calling, or at least close to it. Still, folding is best because your odds of being good at the end of the hand are less than the effective odds you are being offered to see a showdown.

[tpir90036]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think this is reverse implied odds I think this is having a crappy hand that is probably behind and even if it is ahead will probably become behind soon.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmmm. You say that you don't think it is reverse implied odds... and then you go on to give the exact definition of reverse implied odds!

Reverse implied odds are simply bets that we stand to lose on future streets.... we have a decent hand with little chance of improving and our opponent either has a great chance of improving or already has us smashed. So our odds to calldown are not as good as they look.

This does a good job of explaining it:
http://www.cs.ualberta.ca/~jonathan/Grad/papp/node22.html

[tpir90036]

I agree that people throw around "reverse implied odds" in spots where they don't apply. I suppose that drawing at a hand that might not be good *could* be a case since we could be losing more money... but from what TOP has to say about I don't think that is really the spirit of the term.

[AlexHoops]

"Still, folding is best because your odds of being good at the end of the hand are less than the effective odds you are being offered to see a showdown."

Neglect the money in the pot for a second. There are only two aces left in the deck, and the villain needs a better ace to beat you. The bet in this position could mean anything from a weak club draw, a weak flush, a pair other than aces (betting position on a scary board), a better ace or a worse ace. Obviously we are in trouble if he has the weak flush or a better ace, but does he have the better ace or flush more than 50% of the time? If not, arn't we getting 1:1 for each bet we put in (assuming the checkraise will knock out the other two, and if not they are probably on the flush draw drawing incorrectly, atleast on the flop)?

This is the way I have always thought of this play, but as I write it down I think I might see the error in this way of thinking. Because of our position when we are ahead we dont get called on the river? Now I've confused myself even more because of the money in PF should compensate for this.

How does your play change if there is 2 to a flush out given the same action?

[gh9801]

Bet out the flop. given your line I'd c/r flop and B/f turn

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you betting to protect your hand, or scare ppl off from a monotone board?

What do you do on the turn if a club hits with multiple oppenents left? Just one opponent?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm betting because I might have the best hand and you don't want to give a free card. If you get called and the turn is a club you can bet/fold against if it's HU or check-fold if it's multiway.

RAISE!!! not raising here is a huge mistake. you have top pair and need to bloat the pot. This move is high variance because sometimes you will lose a lot but other times you will win a lot.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
RAISE!!! not raising here is a huge mistake. you have top pair and need to bloat the pot. This move is high variance because sometimes you will lose a lot but other times you will win a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hopefully this comes out without being rude, but this is ridiculous.

I might go for a raise at this point as I feel it's better than calling. But, folding can't be that bad, and depending on the player here, it may be best. Calling any of the 3 options here a huge mistake is a severe overstatement.

And if I do raise, I'm certainly not hoping to "bloat the pot".

[WillMagic]

I bet the flop.

Since you checked the flop, just call that bet and then donk a blank turn, and check/fold a club.

Will