AKs get flush draw with big pot

9 handed

Villain 1 is 45/13 over 77 hands
villain 2 is 50/0 over 26 hands

villain 1 ( $13.00 )
hero ( $49.47 )
villain 2 ( $41.96 )

Dealt to hero A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB posts small blind $0.25, BB posts big blind $0.50, UTG posts big blind $0.50.

UTG checks, EP1 calls $0.50, 1 fold,
villain 1 raises $2.50, hero raises $10.50, villain 2 calls $10.50.
villain 1 raises $10.50 and is all-in, hero calls $2.50, villain 2 calls $2.50.

Flop ($40,75) 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

hero checks?

Should I push this flop? I figure my money is going in anyway, so why not try to get villain 2 to fold?

Results in white

<font color="white">

villain 2 bets $15.00.
hero calls $15.00.
** Dealing Turn ** 8h
hero checks.
villain 2 is all-In.
hero calls $13.96.
** Dealing River ** Jc
hero shows Ad, Kd
villain 2 shows Qc, Qd
villain 1 shows 9c, Kc
villain 2 wins $56.15 from side pot #1
villain 2 wins $39.52 from the main pot </font>

i c/r this flop allin.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1361447
pokenum -h ad kd - jh jc -- 3d 5d 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Kd 545 55.05 445 44.95 0 0.00 0.551
Jc Jh 445 44.95 545 55.05 0 0.00 0.449


or

pokenum -h ad kd - - 9c 9h -- 3d 5d 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Kd 253 25.56 737 74.44 0 0.00 0.256
9c 9h 737 74.44 253 25.56 0 0.00 0.744

i think tt+ are more likely than 99, through default and given the action. c/r gets dead money plus you are prob a fav.

[ QUOTE ]
i c/r this flop allin.
i think tt+ are more likely than 99, through default and given the action. c/r gets dead money plus you are prob a fav.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow that's agressive! I like it /images/graemlins/smile.gif

But I don't think it works here. Villain 2 only has about 1 pot left, so a bet is going to commit him. If only stacks were deeper...

I would push the flop. You are pot commited and have a very strong hand.

why dont you like it? You are a fav over most hands and he will probably call anyhow which is not a bad thing. you dont mind about being called, maybe some non pair hands bet if you check but fold to the allin-unlikely but may happen. given the action your money is in regardless.

If the stacks were deeper and he turn his cards over you want him to call, remember how often are tt+ folding on this flop, so if you push they call anyway.

[beavens]

also for the future - it's best to leave the results out until later.

[ QUOTE ]
why dont you like it? You are a fav over most hands and he will probably call anyhow which is not a bad thing. you dont mind about being called, maybe some non pair hands bet if you check but fold to the allin-unlikely but may happen. given the action your money is in regardless.

If the stacks were deeper and he turn his cards over you want him to call, remember how often are tt+ folding on this flop, so if you push they call anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check-raising has no fold equity here. No way is he going going to fold JJ after he puts more money in. He only has another 1 pot left, so if he bets 1/2 pot he will call the rest. Pushing on the other hand might drive him out.

pushing is good, but villian cold called a 21bb bet. he will most likely bet with his AQ or pp, why would you want him to fold a hand that can bet but not call an allin?

[ QUOTE ]
pushing is good, but villian cold called a 21bb bet. he will most likely bet with his AQ or pp, why would you want him to fold a hand that can bet but not call an allin?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think PP is most likely here. I am behind and I'd like him to fold. Given the stack sizes any sensible bet from him is going to commit him. I don't think there are any hands that can bet and not call allin.

my point is most pp that are calling a 21bb raise are not folding to a push, so why not let any non-pairs bet for you and you can push. you are not behind too far behind any pocket pair other than a set.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1361501
pokenum -h ad kd - kh kc -- 3d 5d 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Kd 465 46.97 525 53.03 0 0.00 0.470
Kc Kh 525 53.03 465 46.97 0 0.00 0.530

or

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1361505
pokenum -h ad kd - ah ac -- 3d 5d 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Kd 360 36.36 621 62.73 9 0.91 0.368
Ac Ah 621 62.73 360 36.36 9 0.91 0.632

given the money in there you should call even if he turns up AA.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1361525
pokenum -h ad kd - ah kh -- 3d 5d 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Kd 360 36.36 0 0.00 630 63.64 0.682
Ah Kh 0 0.00 360 36.36 630 63.64 0.318


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1361527
pokenum -h ad kd - ah qd -- 3d 5d 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Kd 864 87.27 96 9.70 30 3.03 0.888
Qd Ah 96 9.70 864 87.27 30 3.03 0.112


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1361529
pokenum -h ad kd - ah 9h -- 3d 5d 9s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Kd 450 45.45 531 53.64 9 0.91 0.459
Ah 9h 531 53.64 450 45.45 9 0.91 0.541

[ QUOTE ]
my point is most pp that are calling a 21bb raise are not folding to a push, so why not let any non-pairs bet for you and you can push. you are not behind too far behind any pocket pair other than a set.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh I see now. Sorry for being so dense.

There's not a lot of difference between the 2 lines.

Pushing on the one hand, might get a PP that's ahead of me to fold. Admitted, it's unlikely but TT, JJ or QQ might get a bit nervous and I'm really not that far behind either.

On the other hand c/r, gets money from an AK (if I hit my flush) or AQ that may have folded. I think AQ is an unlikely holding but villain 2 is loose... and I'm not sure either of them bet here.

Anyway, I like both lines better than calling down on a draw. Given Villain 2's holding I think I was destined to lose big here, but I appreciate the replies and it's a good exercize to think it thru.

[elus2]

[ QUOTE ]
he will most likely bet with his AQ or pp, why would you want him to fold a hand that can bet but not call an allin?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
my point is most pp that are calling a 21bb raise are not folding to a push,

[/ QUOTE ]

so which is it?

could you explain why you disagree or where you think i am worng?

[elus2]

[ QUOTE ]
could you explain why you disagree or where you think i am worng?

[/ QUOTE ]

your two statements contradict each other.

i'm not sure how they do, but i'll try to explain. a PP that will call a 21bb preflop bet should bet this flop if check too, while a non pair hand would fold to a bet but bet if check too. could you explain where you think i am wrond in more detail.

[elus2]

[ QUOTE ]
while a non pair hand would fold to a bet but bet if check too

[/ QUOTE ]

actually people don't make big bluffs into dry sidepots. there is still the all in villain to consider.