10-20 terrible river?

[rtrombone]

10-20 at the Bike. Decent game, not great. For those of you who play regularly at the Bike, I'm almost positive the 8-16 game is better. 20% lower stakes and a slightly higher rake but 600% more lunatics (they will cap it with 62s pre-flop and an inside straight draw post-flop). Be prepared for some swings, though.

Decent EP open-raises. I decide to call with pocket 10s in the BB. Flop is Jxx, two diamonds. I bet, EP calls. Turn is the 10 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif . I bet, EP raises, I 3-bet, he calls. River is the 3 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif .

Now what?

[Tyler Durden]

[SossMan]

I bet out and fold to a raise.

[cferejohn]

Doesn't it make more sense to check-call if you plan to fold to a raise? Worst case scenario you lose 1 BB. If you bet and fold to a raise you do two things which seem bad to me. 1. You may be folding the best hand. Usually that raise means a flush, but if it is a bluff one time in eight and it works you are losing money. 2. You are letting the table know that you will fold to a raise on the river when a scare card hits.

Personally, I bet the river and call a raise unless I have a darn good tell on the player that is screaming "I have a flush".

[Georgia Peach]

I don't know about betting on the river. Why waste a bet when you have every reason to think he might have AdKd or AdX. I'd check and fold to a bet. I think you are dead in the water to a flush.

[rtrombone]

Yeah, that's where I got the handle. You've asked me that before.

When the fourth diamond hit the river, I knew I was dead. I was 100% sure the EP guy had made his flush. Maybe this doesn't reflect well on my play, but I was so convinced I was beat that all that was going through my mind was "surrender." When he raised me at the turn and just called my 3-bet, I KNEW he had either the A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif or K /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif . Probably exactly AK, since AA or KK would've raised me at the flop.

I checked, he turned over JJ for top set. I mucked without showing.

I guess JJ was a possibility, but I didn't put him on that because he had just called me at the flop. I would've raised, hoping to get in 4 bets right there against a diamond draw. What's really interesting is that at the river, the only way I could have won is by bluffing with a set of 10s. He couldn't have called my bet, right?

I think in the long run, betting the river is throwing money away. You can safely check and fold to a bet here against virtually all opponents. (This is assuming the exact same circumstances as my hand, i.e., EP raise pre-flop in a full ring game, etc.) If anyone disagrees, I'd like to hear why.

The other people at the table must have been wondering what the hell I had, hehehe. And I guess I'm lucky the board didn't pair at the end.

[SossMan]

"Doesn't it make more sense to check-call if you plan to fold to a raise? Worst case scenario you lose 1 BB. If you bet and fold to a raise you do two things which seem bad to me. 1. You may be folding the best hand. Usually that raise means a flush, but if it is a bluff one time in eight and it works you are losing money."

Here's my thinking...I put him on one of three types of hands.
A) a big /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif
B) a big hand w/ no diamond (i.e. set, top 2)
C) a small flush made on the turn

It's hard to find a hand that he would go 3 bets on the turn with, and bluff raise you off a winning hand on the river. That 4th diamond looks just as scary to him if he has B) or C) and if you come out firing, he'll either make a crying call (in which case you lose the same as if you check/call) or fold.
If he can bluff raise you on the end w/ out a diamond, then more power to him.
I think more times than not, he'll fold or make a crying call, either way, you either win the pot, or lose the same as check/calling...(I'm assuming that you wouldn't check/fold on the end for one bet)

"2. You are letting the table know that you will fold to a raise on the river when a scare card hits."

I kinda want people to think that, because I would only fold on the end to a raise (heads up) when I am bluffing. So, I wan't people to take shots at me more times than not when I'm betting the end because I usually have the goods. In my mind, that's an added benefit of this play.
(For me, this applies only to heads up river play, as I know that it makes things tough when players get tricky with you on the flop and turn)

I've been wrong before though...

[ragedyandy]

Why wouldn't he raise you to 4 bets on the turn with the nut flush - in his mind, if he has AdKd, he should do this while you appear to be in the mood to shove money in the pot. Him not re-raising on the tuen now means he doesn't have the flush. I don't know what it means regarding the likelihood he has AdKx or something of that kind. When /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif # 4 comes on the river, you have a really tough decision - but you can safely fold to a raise and for only one bet, you have a chance at a large pot (I bet you would have been surprised if he folded the river to your obvious flush).

I wish I could think like this at the table and be right some of the time. I'm often wrong with my reads. /forums/images/icons/confused.gif

[Georgia Peach]

He/she might not reraise on the turn because there might be two more bets to gain on the river, if the flopped flush has occurred by the turn. A fourth bet on the turn might cause our friend to fold. If I had the nuts, I might want to call a 3 bet to see if I could get even more money on the river, especially if my opponent has missed the fact the nuts ain't his.

It is a risky play because it does allow a possible paired card to appear on the river and the nut flush is now 2nd best to a full house. But it is a gamble now and then.

[ML4L]

Hey Trombone,

IMHO, folding to a bet in this type of situation is suicidal. Personally, I will bet the river here if I have a solid hand whether or not I have a flush. Instinctively, one might think that this is a violation of the "win more than 50% of the time you're called" rule, but in my experience, you will be called (correctly!) by many non-flush hands. Additionally, if there are people that you play against regularly, you have to "bluff" the river here sometimes so that you can get action when you do have the flush. Note that if he has an overpair, there is a 50% chance that he does not have a diamond. I think that you would have been getting sufficient odds to call a river bet.

I would say that I make more money off single-suited flops and 4-flush boards than any other generic situation that I can think of. The trick is knowing probability and taking advantage of the fact that these boards scare other people and thus cause them to think irrationally.

ML4L