Back to basics checkup... marginal hand/big pot [Archive]

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bobdibble

11-22-2005, 03:04 AM

Villain has PFR of 10 or so over a few hundred hands. I figure he is only raising big PP and AK out of the SB.

I called pre-flop because barring a re-raise, we are going to the flop 5 handed and I only have to call 1. I'm looking to hit the flop hard.

On the flop, I've got a pair and a gut shot. Not exactly as good of a flop as I would like, but I think I can work with it with 10SB already in the pot. I'd like to protect my gutshot from runner-runner spades, and my 2 pair draw from a straight, so I raise. I think this is correct, but want to check.

On the river, I was a wuss. I was worried about QQ and JJ at this point. He probably isn't betting an unimproved ace, so he has AQ (unlikely given the flop 3-bet and pfr), AA, KK, JJ, QQ here. I'm ahead of slightly more than I am behind, but if he 3-bets, I'm probably hosed.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $15.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB raises, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds.

Flop: (11 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (10 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds.

River: (12 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

jason_t

11-22-2005, 03:10 AM

The basics are fold preflop.

11-22-2005, 03:33 AM

so the ako/Aks read is money @ the moment, but more then other half of the time i agree with jason t, as in fold any non-sooted cahds in this spot, or JTo+ (is this right?) , recognizing the large pfr #, on the flop good raise, when he 3-bets its either AKspades, KQspades or real aggro QQ or JJ?, turn completes all draws and thank god UTG+1 folds, but our villians' not on a draw, i'm on a check-call down @ the moment, but considering the ways villian could have, its a certain riv 2-pr is good riv raise, facing an AA, KK, and non spd. Aks- you just got made.

bobdibble

11-22-2005, 03:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The basics are fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, getting 9:1 isn't enough to enter with a decent unsuited connector against a field of limpers and an SB with a clearly defined hand range? Especially since I'm basically closing the action. (Limp re-raises are pretty rare)

Are you objececting to this call because of my poor relative position to the raiser, or would you not make this call under any circumstances?

In any case, suppose my connector was suited. I suspect you would make that call. Now, suppose you flopped like I did, but without a flush draw. How does my line look in that case?

11-22-2005, 11:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The basics are fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

hobbsmann

11-22-2005, 11:25 AM

raise the river and fold to 3-bet. unlike the others I don't mind the preflop call.

brettbrettr

11-22-2005, 12:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
raise the river and fold to 3-bet. unlike the others I don't mind the preflop call.

[/ QUOTE ]

98o is trashola. But your river advice is good.

ErrantNight

11-22-2005, 01:18 PM

just to note: you hit this flop pretty hard considering the thin preflop call. if you're looking for, say, a flopped straight, or two pair, you shouldn't be making this call.

ErrantNight

11-22-2005, 01:19 PM

maybe with position

11-22-2005, 01:41 PM

Your preflop call is fine, given 10:1 odds. On the flop you have a 9 out draw against the guy with the big pair, and you could easily have him beat. The only hand that might be debatable is the river, which could be a slim value raise, depending on how predictable he is and if you can fold to a three bet.

adios

11-22-2005, 02:04 PM

pre-flop is ok as the pot is laying you a nice price. I could be convinced otherwise. Flop ok, turn ok. I raise the river if the range of hands you expect for villan is valid. He can only have one A /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif and three ways he has QQ with many more ways to have AA,KK or other AK. If his hand range is as narrow as you suspect you're a big favorite on the river and I would think your raise would be called much more often when you're ahead then when you're beat.

Abbaddabba

11-22-2005, 02:31 PM

I dont see why people look at a preflop blind defense as getting paid X to 1.

Yes, you're getting paid a large amount relative to the bet, but you're also up against several other hands that are (in most cases) going to be better than yours, and often dominate yours. 8/9_OFF_ doesnt exactly have great visibility, and you're OOP the entire hand.

From preflop value alone, it's a definite call. You cant neglect the fact that you're going to be a net loser in the hand in terms of postflop action (on average) unless these people are complete retards.

Something tells me that raise/folding the river is correct, but i couldnt for my life bare to fold to one more bet if 3bet in that large a pot. I'd prefer that i just avoid the potential anxiety and call.

adios

11-22-2005, 05:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I dont see why people look at a preflop blind defense as getting paid X to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it's a way to compare pre flop pot equity with what the pot is laying you pre flop.

JTMoney42

11-22-2005, 06:02 PM

Good analysis of off suit connectors

http://www.cs.wisc.edu/~prock/poker/unsuited

bobbyi

11-22-2005, 07:00 PM

Your poor relative position is definitely important here. Without that factor, this is a very easy call. With it, it becomes close, but I still think calling is better than folding.

bobdibble

11-23-2005, 07:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis of off suit connectors

http://www.cs.wisc.edu/~prock/poker/unsuited

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a great link. (Relvance to this hand: with one more caller, this would have been a borderline call.)

jason_t

11-24-2005, 02:13 PM

We've been through preflop before on this board. There was a great thread started by rmarotti back in July or August. Search for it.