How to play AA

[Rickfish]

Pokerstars, PLHE, blinds 50/100
I start this hand with 2940 which is above average (1500 to start)
LP with AA, one EP limper, I raise to 400
the limper calls
At this stage I have 2540 chips left and the limper has 2995
Flop 8h 9h Jd
limper checks, I bet 600 (pot was 1100)
limper raises 2150 which sets me in if I want to call.
I know nothing about the opponent.

Do I run away with my 1940 chips or call?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Do you have the A /forums/images/icons/heart.gif ?

[SeanM]

tough one. I lay them done.

[John W]

I would have to fold. You have to put him on a hand to call your origianal raise with. And pocket Ten's or Jack's is what I would give him credit for and fold. You still have plenty of chip's left to wait for a better situation. The board is just to scary to commit all my chips.

Hope it worked out for ya.

[DJA]

How often do you figure you are ahead right now. If I don't know the opponent I would say about 60% of the time. There are too many drawing hands that the person could bluff, especially after you only bet 1/2 the pot into him. BTW I don't disagree with the 1/2 pot bet, but I am saying the person may think you were showing weakness...

Now if you are ahead, and he is on a draw how often will he draw out on you... I would say 1/3 of the time on most draws. So 60% * 2/3 = 40% of the time I figure to win this if I don't know the opponent.

You are getting about 3700:2000 on a call, so mathematically you should call if my 40% guess is correct. I would most likely make the call, putting the person on a big J, or a draw... or a hand better then mine, but I am not sure enough to lay this down.

Just My Thoughts,

[gunbuster]

I might grit my teeth and jam them all in there. EP limper probably doesn't have the straight yet. A set is possible, but the limper checks on a dangerous flop. If he put you on a draw, there's no reason why he'd want to give up a free card --- unless he knew you would bet for him.

I think he might be holding ATs or AJo and he's pushing in on a semi-bluff with a whole lot of outs.

[Rickfish]

My hand was Ah Ad.

[Rickfish]

I decided to call. He had Tc Qs. What do you think of his play?

IMO, the pre-flop call was bad. Flopping a straight is about 100-1 but even less in this case because I have blockers for the top straight. There are loads of flops that could cost him a lot of chips, e.g. KJ2, T32, ATT, AQT. I think that his trouble flops are a lot more likely than his good flops. OK, I don't have to have AA but against a weaker hand like AQ there are very few flops that help him.

I don't think the check-raise on the flop is best either. I could have folded AA and some of you have said you would have. What if I have AK? I think he should check and call and hope that I hit my overcard on the turn or river, or, if I have the overpair that I go all-in on the turn.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

One hand that jumped out at me that might be played like he did was Ah Th. So now I know he doesn't have that. After reflection, I'd have to say you can fold the way he played this. I think he flopped a set.

[gunbuster]

Don't beat yourself up on this one. He made a few poor decisions pre-flop: first he called with QTo from EP, then he calls a raise with a crap hand. Even if he's calling 300 for 650, what kind of hand could he hope to hit w/ QT that wouldn't be dominated.

Well, he got lucky. Still, it might be possible to get away from your hand if you figured him for a set. It's hard to put someone on QT, as it quite loose pre-flop play (almost 1/6 of his chips!!!). I would more rationally put him on Ah Th where he flopped a huge draw and is trying to make u lay down. To me, a set makes less likely, as one would not want to give a free card with a board like that.

You want players to make those sort of lousy calls pre-flop, you just don't want them to get lucky. I used to beat myself up on how I could have gotten away from situations like this, and the more I dwelled on it, the more passive my game started to get -- subsequently, my results got worse. I survived, but seldom had enough firepower towards the end to make a real push for the top spots.

[Jon Matthews]

His play isn't the greatest at all but I'm surprised that no one suggested this as his holding considering how many dodgy players out there...

[gunbuster]

It is a possible, but unprobable holding, without having any other information. We didn't didn't have any information about the kind of players that were there. In any event, you can't go around playing thinking that the nuts are always out there, otherwise you'll be a pretty easy target.

[fnurt]

This is a tough one. Yeah I'd feel bad if I folded and then he showed something like AJ. But with this kind of flop, with 3 cards in the 8-Q range, it's so bad for your big pair cause there are just so many hands that can hit it. You might be up against 2 pair or better. You might be up against a pair + draw where you're technically "ahead" but the hand is really a 50/50 proposition. Some "drawing" hands, like JhTh, are actually big favorites here. Or it's possible he might have a hand like AJo and you're in fine shape.

It's always hard to get away from AA, but this is one of the most dangerous flop types imaginable. I think if you lay down AA every time you see a flop like this and someone puts you all-in, you'll come out ahead in the long run.

[Copernicus]

sorry..duplicated

[Copernicus]

I dont think his flop betting was that bad. Once he has picked up some chips from that round, what can happen in later rounds...not much good and a lot of bad. Few turn cards will allow him to get much more $ out of you, and those that do present some risk to him. You may have a heart draw, you may fill a higher straight or counterfeit the current one, and you may have flopped a set. He takes all of your drawing odds away, and is a big favorite to knock you out if you do call. If its folded he leaves the table guessing about his all-in standards, and may project the table image he wants.

One thing I have been thinking about, and is really the subject of a different thread, which I'll start when I think I know the answer...

Are pot/implied odds the right thing to look at in making a call/no call decision? Always? Never? Multi-player, but not heads up? Only heads up?

The issue is the true economic value of extra vs lost chips. On a simplistic level, S&M would say the chips you win arent as valuable as the chips you lose, so a call at exactly the right "tournament chip" odds is not correct because of the "utility" of the chips.

On a more complex level, what you care about is your tournament EV, not the hand EV, or are they the same in the long run? My gut tells me that they are the same when you are down to heads up play, but they not the same when there are multiple players in the tournament, but that you need substanially better than proper TC odds to make a call for a large % of your stack. Any preliminary thoughts before I kill a lot of brain cells on something thats already been resolved?