Would you fold these Kings?

[MrGo]

8 left in tourny. 22 entered. First place takes $3,100. Second takes $2,100 and third takes $1,200. The tourny was a NL HE with $100+30 entry fee plus $25 rebuys for first two hours and a $50 add-on. We all started with T2500 chips. Rebuys got you T1000 and the add-on got you an additional T2500. I rebought 3 times and got my add-on. I was approx. $250 invested in this tourny.

It's down to the final 8. I have been playing very well. I am second in chips by about T2000. I have about T36000.

It's folded to me...I am UTG+3. I get Kings. I make it T5000. The chip leader (immediately to my left) goes all-in.

Now I have a thing to think about. I believe a very solid player would of folded. Maybe not even a very solid player.

Would you fold here and save your stack??

I didn't and called. He had Aces. We both made our trips, but it was all over for me.

As I recall this, calling here was a bad bad play. What else would this guy go all-in with when he has chip lead?

Thoughts/suggestions please.

Bill

[fnurt]

No way would I fold. If you get AA against me in this situation you can have my stack.

You should definitely try to avoid confrontations with the chip leader when you have a big stack, but there are limits to everything.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

What else would this guy go all-in with when he has chip lead?

You tell me. What sort of hands has he shown down after he's raised? How has he played since the rebuys ended? Have you raised and folded to a reraise since he's been at your table? What hands have you shown down after raising?

[DoctorJ]

Couldn't agree more that these questions are critical. A couple of other key questions that might help us answer more completely would be "What are the total chips in play?" and "How much does he have you covered by?"

The first question is relevant because if you two have 60% of the chips, it tilts the decision more toward folding, but if you're just slightly above average, it tilts it more toward calling. The second is probably more relevant, as it speaks to whether or not he feels he can "push you around" with a stack that's 3X your size without it hurting him too much, for example, or if he barely covers you, then it tilts toward giving him more credit for a hand because of the potential hit a loss would give him.

IF he hasn't been very aggressive, and IF he has respected your raises to this point, and IF you are fairly close in stack sizes, it is possible to consider laying KK down. I would have to be pretty damn sure all of these conditions are met, and even so, I would still be asking myself "Would he do the same thing with AK, QQ, or JJ?" Cuz with AK you're a 65% to 70% favorite, and with QQ/JJ you're in the 80% favorite range...

Cheers...

DoctorJ

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

We need to know the other stack sizes. There are 8 left and 3 get paid. If the other stacks are less than half his size, I'd be more inclined to *not* go to war with the other big stack, even though I agree with fnurt in theory about almost never laying down KK.

[Copernicus]

Its a tough fold, but if you are better than the rest of the table and expect to move up signficicantly in prize money by avoiding the leader (either because they are short or you are just better than they are), then you have to do it. Sitting to the left of the leader when there are two dominating stacks is meaningful, because your investment vs other players could disappear with a strong move from a chip leader who is to your left.

The chip leader doesnt want confrontations with you either...a strong move like that screams AA to me. I would lay it down if the chip leader had earned any respect whatsoever earlier in the tourney.

[MrGo]

I can't really answer that. The two tables recently merged into one, and he was at the other table to start. I don't know how he plays. This was about 20 hands into the final table, so...and he didn't play much. He did receive Aces about 10 min prior. But that's all I know of the player.

[MrGo]

He had me covered by about T2000...perhaps as much as T4000..but no more than that.

Total chips at the table were approx T17000 So we roughly had less than 50% or so between us.

I believe folding is the correct play here. As I just stated, the two tables recently merged, so I don't know how he plays. This is another reason why folding may be correct. But you could also argue and say that since you don't know how he plays, he could hold QQ or AK and you'd be in the lead.

[Copernicus]

Didnt one of the experts say once "The second big raise is always AA" or something to that effect?

I almost ignore the cards when its big stack vs big stack pre-flop. If he could credibly move in with AA, AK, KK, QQ you are a 2/1 favorite. Is it worth bowing out 1/3 of the time to move way up in count?

My gut feel is, if your only priority is coming in first, its a clear call. If maximizing your return is more important, fold. If you know the payout structure 1-8, I'll calculate the alternatives.

BTW..not sure what you meant in talking about the stacks. You said you were close to him with about 36,000, but then later say the total TC was 17,000. Did you mean the average was 17000?

[MrGo]

I meant T170000 I changed it. Thanks.

[fnurt]

Let's make the problem the same EXCEPT that our hero holds AA. What do you put the chip leader on now? The other two aces?

Getting back to the original question, are there really no hands the chip leader is supposed to reraise the #2 stack with, aside from AA? Because I could certainly see myself reraising, at least some of the time, with AA, KK, QQ, AKs. Maybe I am too loose!

[Copernicus]

Closer than I thought..and the wrong way in EVs, if I did the math right, although I would still fold.

If the chip counts before the hand were 40,000, 38,000 (you) and 6 others at 15,000, and the payouts were only the top 3 spots you mentioned, The EV of a fold is $1430, and the EV of a call given that his raise could come with AA, AKo, AKs, KK, QQ (making you about a 2/1 favorite) is about $1775. (All assume equal ability so chip count probabilities determine winners).

Only you can say whether the EV of $345 is worth washing out now and winning nothing. Since I'm trying to grind out a "second income" in tourneys, and cashflow is king, I wouldnt risk washing out, and pay the $345 insurance, but its pretty close, even for me.

[Chris Gabriel]

I would have to say that first of all, its fairly rare that aces and kings run into eachother. It happens, but not that often. Second, I would think that when a person comes over the top of you for that much more with nothing invested, it would seem to me that he didn't want to be called. I would lean towards him have Q's or J's and trying to force an AK to lay it down. IMO, you would have to be pretty damn sure in order to lay it down. Remember, you are only a dog to 1 hand, and a big favorite against everything else. I think you were just unlucky. /forums/images/icons/cool.gif

[fnurt]

That's a huge chunk of money to give up just to reduce your variance, especially when you think about all the other situations that will come up where you will also have to pay a lot of money if you want to reduce your variance.

I don't question your reasons for making this decision, but if you're unwilling to put your chips in with a 2-1 edge, even at the late stages, I'm not sure how much tournament success you can expect to have.

[MrGo]

So you believe I made the right decision to call? Anyone feel I made a bad decision?

Thanks

[Michael Davis]

I don't see how you can be certain he isn't just putting a move on you. After all, if he knows everything you know (as evidenced by this thread), sounds like he could have any two cards and is just trying to add to his stack.

In reality, most players aren't *good* or *stupid* enough to move in with anything, and it is possible that calling is wrong against a lot of opponents. Too many unknown variables in this situation to fold pocket Ks, I think.

-Mike