Interesting 6-12 hand

Hey everyone. Im new to the 2+2 forum but im looking to improve all my games. So I was playing a little 6-12 stud at the local casino and the game is much tougher than it usually is but i stil think i can beat it. So im in a lat position with JJ and a K doorcard and ive got 2 limpers with a 6 and 7 up. Ive been playing pretty solidly so far and a raise it up. I get called by a guy behind me with an A up and the 7. So on 4th it shows AT K3(me) and 74 so its checked to me and i bet. 2 callers. on 5th it reads AT7, K3Q(me) and 754. checked to me and i bet. Heres the Really interesting part. i look to my left just as the guy is checking his hole cards and i spot KQ so his entire hand is AKQT 7 so now im thinking he'll just fold not sporting a pair but he calls and the other guy drops out. 6th street gives us both aces and he bets. Im thinking that i will have position on the next hand and if hes bets out the river then ill fold unless i caught a T J or case A maybe but if he checks ill assume that he missed 2 pair and auto bet regardless of my last card. He checks last card, given that hes the type of player who called on 5th w/o a pair shoul i still bet against his likely dry aces? Also should I have even called on 6th street?

[beta1607]

I think you have to check behind here on 7th. It doesn't seem likely he will fold given his previous loose play. Also I probably call 6th but I think a fold is correct since you know 100% you are behind and even if you improve you will make a 2nd best hand easily.

[benwood]

Very interesting.Since you have not mentioned other players,I'm doing numbers based on the 3 of you.You have seen 12 cards(6,4,& 2),so there 40 left.12 help you(1A,2J's,3K's,3Q's,3 treys)& 28 miss.7 to 3 against.Not bad.Except,unless you hit an A or J,you've got an interesting problem that requires reading the player(body language,etc).Will you know whether he has A's up or A's only both when he bets & when he checks?Finally,the current problem you have posed.7 bets in the pot.Are the odds that he will fold his dry A's better(shorter)than 7 to 1?It's all subjective.You have to decide because you were the one at the table.

[benwood]

Still thinking about this hand. Actually,you're going to end up with the winning hand about 1/4 of the time,so if you just throw it away when you miss & call it down when you hit,you can come out ahead without the reads.

Thanks for the replys guys. I was pretty sure hed check AA and bet aces up so im glad i was at least mathmatically correct to call. Also when he did call on the end he moaned a little bit so i reckon hed throw it away at least 1 in 7 times.

[Andy B]

A Ten gives hero a straight.

[Andy B]

This gets debated on the B&M forum on a semi-regular basis, but looking at the other guy's hole cards is unethical.

7CS4AP says that you should frequently see the river with a gut-shot Broadway draw. In any case, I wouldn't expect a typical player to fold such a draw. As far as he knows, Jacks are totally live. You should still bet fifth, though.

Sixth is interesting. I'll try to revisit this after work.

I would expect almost anyone in your opponent's position to call after checking with Aces.

[MRBAA]

roy cooke has written the best stuff IMHO on stuff like scoping cards. What if opponent is a drunken a s s and is flashing cards so that you don't have to move or make an effort other than looking his way to see them? What if you have to lean over just a bit? What if it's a kindly older woman who needs to lift her cards up to see them? What if it's a LAG player who accidentally flashes hole cards in such a way that the guy on his left can see them easily, but you need to turn your head more than you usually would to get the same advantage?

What if it's a new player who is confused by the speed of play and sometimes accidentally flashes cards?

I don't think all of these are unethical.

[BeerMoney]

I think the problem wiht seeing other people's cards is the advantage it give you over other people at our table, not just the guy who can't keep his cards secret.

[MRBAA]

So would you always say something?

[BeerMoney]

In the rare cases I have seen players cards, I've asked them to protect them better. Funny thing, is, some people are so retarded, they take this offensively.

[MRBAA]

I generally will say a polite "watch your cards". But I don't view it as my responsibility to look out for the other players at the table if someone is flagrantly showing me their hand. As you say, it very rarely happens, and generally when someone is drunk and won't listen to you anyway.

ok. its not like i said to the guy "hey look over there" and when he turned his head i peeked at his card, he was flashing them. To me its not really unethical to take a cukers money /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Andy B]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think all of these are unethical.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do. Back when, my policy was to warn a person twice, but then he was on his own. As Adam has pointed out, the problem isn't that you can use the information against the flasher, but that you can use it against other players. I now warn the flasher every time, and I make an effort not to see his cards.

[Andy B]

For some reason, I got it in my head that I needed to do some kind of complex equity calculation for this hand. I think one of benwood's posts got me thinking along those lines. Then I came to my senses and went to twodimes. You're about 28% to win the hand, and since you're getting about 7:1 or something, you're getting odds to call, even though it's frequently going to cost you two bets if you pay off on the river when you make two pair.

[MRBAA]

Interesting. I view myself as ethical to the point of bleeding heart compared to most poker players. But here your standards go well beyond mine.