I need a plan - AA 200NL

[CryptoManiac]

SB has just sat down and this is his second hand so I have no read on him at all.

Whats my plan here?

Seat 1: UTG ($200.75 in chips)
Seat 2: CO ($255.50 in chips)
Seat 4: BTN ($81.75 in chips)
Seat 5: SB ($196 in chips)
Seat 6: BB ($57.88 in chips)
SB: posts small blind $1
BBs: posts big blind $2
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to UTG [A/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif]
UTG: raises to $7
CO: folds
BTN: calls $7
SB: calls $6
BB: folds
----- FLOP ----- [5/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif]
SB: bets $2
UTG: raises to $22
BTN: folds
SB: raises to $42
UTG: ???

This is a tough spot to be in without reads. I suggest atleast getting poker tracker / player view for the poker / tracker / player view numbers if you are going to play without reads.

A few thoughts : He is almost certainly not on a draw, so he either has a king or a set. You should almost never be three betting here, so it's call or fold, and then check raise, check fold or lead the turn big.

This really depends on how this player plays a king. At the $200 stage you don't want to get stacked with one pair while holding a full stack.

[emil3000]

I probably get stacked with AA here, and I do it on the turn or river. Threebetting flop is not good.

With no read I count on the idiot factor.

[4_2_it]

Call the flop and push any non-K turn.

[Arbogast]

This is one of my major problems lately, and I've been thinking alot about it.

It seems that when you raise ep and get callers, they are usually holding pp and trying to hit sets. So...

You bet the flop, and usually take it down right there. But...when you get action, they can definately beat overpairs.

My advice is to try to control the pot, and just call his gay $2 bet.

I think his re-raise screams i can beat TPTK. Act accordingly.

[beavens]

i like 4_2's line.

I dont know lol

The way the flop was played was really weird.
How can afford to clown around with that tiny $2 bet like that with just a king? It really looks like he's trying to get you to raise.

This ones got me confused

Make a larger raise PF.

Usually minbetting and then reraising screams monster. I am almost certain you are beat, but this is very difficult to get away from. Also, the donk may be doing this with a hand you beat like a naked K...I don't know, I probably lose my stack here.

[mustardo]

Unless I've seen him doing this before with tpt/gk v preflop raiser I'm folding this everytime. Small lead followed by min reraise is virtually always a monster.

[CryptoManiac]

[ QUOTE ]
I probably get stacked with AA here, and I do it on the turn or river. Threebetting flop is not good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain why three betting is bad? Presumably because we are giving worse hands and opportunity to fold?

[ QUOTE ]
With no read I count on the idiot factor.

[/ QUOTE ]

I normally go the other way and assume them to be reasonable until I have evidence to suggest otherwise. What's the general thought here?

[Benholio]

The min-bet/3-bet is very often a monster. I think I might be able to find a fold on this dry board, but maybe I am weak tight. Another thing to consider is that a PFR and then a continuation bet usually represents AK, so your opponents will often play their hands as if thats what you hold. In other words, they can usually beat TPTK if they raise with an Ace or King on the flop, especially with no draws out there.

[emil3000]

Minbet three bet means he's an idiot. Seriously, very sensitive test.

[scdavis0]

Bottom line.. you ain't folding on the flop. Also, re-raising is bad against the vast majority of players (90%+).

I want you to call and then play poker on the turn (this is probably going to involve becoming more committed).

[CobraGoat]

Can someone please elaborate for us more ignorant members, why exactly we call the $2 bet here? Is this case dependent? Is it because there are no draws on the board? Trying to keep worse hands in?

This is an instance where i find myself almost always RRing here and it feels wierd but i dont know why i would be calling instead.

[beavens]

[ QUOTE ]
Can someone please elaborate for us more ignorant members, why exactly we call the $2 bet here? Is this case dependent? Is it because there are no draws on the board? Trying to keep worse hands in?

This is an instance where i find myself almost always RRing here and it feels wierd but i dont know why i would be calling instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think because of the amount of the bet was so small that we're most likely facing a monster just trying to extract value

[trevor]

[ QUOTE ]
With no read I count on the idiot factor.

[/ QUOTE ]

With no read I am more inclined to fold than to push.

[ QUOTE ]
My advice is to try to control the pot, and just call his gay $2 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you sacrifice too much value here by doing this.

[ QUOTE ]
Call the flop and push any non-K turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably the most defualt line w/ an overpair w/o reads, but this spot sucks. You are either way ahead or have 2 outs. 3-betting the flop is bad because he'll never fold a hand you beat and you make sacrifice value from AK if he can find a fold on the flop.

I dunno, call and hope he donk bets the turn = weak king and push?

[JudoGirl]

Preflop is fine...

I think your flop play could have been better.

On the flop the pot is $23 and sb bets $2 into you making the pot $25. Of course, you have to raise. But how much? The $2 bet is amateur hour poker and while it could mean he is trying to goad you into a big raise, it doesn't necessarily mean that.


What you really want to do is play basic poker and figure out where you are at, winning the most when you are ahead, but losing the least when you are beat. That requires getting money into the pot while keeping the pot manageable and making future decisions easier--all at the same time. Tough order, eh? Yeah NL is tough!

There is no flush draw and while there is a possible str8 draw on the board, it is unlikely. The bettor is probably not on a draw. He probably has a K. But he could have a set He may even have a smaller pair like QQ and be testing to see if you really have a hand (yeah, I've seen this kind of move at 200NL). Against a reasonable player 2 pair is unlikely. If he has K-any, he is drawing to 5 outs. If he has oesd, 8 outs, so at best he is 5:1 if he is drawing to beat you.

Raising to 9 gives him 4.85:1 odds.
Raising to 14 gives him 3.25:1 odds.
Raising to 22 gives him 2.35:1 odds.

As far as incorrect odds, clearly the more he'll call the better. But you have other goals. You want to keep the pot a manageable size and you want future decisions to be easier. I think a raise to somewhere around $14 is the most balanced raise. The difference in pot size is $39 vs $47. It doesn't seem big, but look what happens when/if he raises you:

You bet $22 and he min-raises to $44. You have to call off another $22 and then the pot would be $111 and nobody who bets a reasonable amount into the turn can fold. If you fold to his raise, you aren't feeling very good about it.

You raise to $14 and he min-raises to $28. If you call, you've only paid $6 more than what you paid when you bet $22. The pot is $80--$31 smaller.

I certainly like the 2nd option much better than the first. He now knows you like your hand and you aren't just putting a random move on him.

When a non-K turn comes, if he bets $35-40 into the pot you can call. If he bets the pot, you can more comfortable fold. If he check and you bet $40 and he checkraises all in, you can more comfortably fold.

Either way, though, there is a possibility you are going to lose your stack on this hand. But I think you come out ahead far more often with the 2nd line--the big difference being that you can fold to a big reraise on the turn more comfortably than the raise on the flop. Many times that reraise on the flop is a worse hand and you won't have a feel for it until the play on the turn.

(Or maybe I'm just full of it--I dropped $900 playing 2/4 NL 6 handed last night!)

Teresa

[emil3000]

Nah man of course you should raise his $2 bet. That's like a [censored] check. Once he pops it again you shouldn't reraise, cause of standard reasons, worse hands will fold, better hands stack you.

[4_2_it]

The only thing I would add to your response that you ignore implied odds which probably allow for villain to draw to anything with 5 or more outs. I think your stack is going in a on non-threatening turn, so the only weapon at your disposal is putting the decision to call an all-in on villain. With villain reads (rock, maniac, uber-LAG) then a different path would make sense, but without reads it is -EV to lay down AA.

[JudoGirl]

If he is on a draw, I don't think he gets the right implied odds unless he hits his draw on the turn and you let him get you all in. Once he has misses the turn but calls your bet he has put so much money into the pot that he has made a huge mistake and cannot get enough money into the pot on the river to make up for his mistake.

[pokerjoker]

if ur not willing to go to the felt then fold now. I hate this situation soo much. Once I see that minraise I usually Load GT+ in my deciding time and unless the guy is a setmining rock I call then try and get chips allin later.

[xorbie]

This is the clearest example of a fold ever, IMO. Minbet --> min 3-bet is a set or two pair roughly 100% of the time.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
SB has just sat down and this is his second hand so I have no read on him at all.

Whats my plan here?

Seat 1: UTG ($200.75 in chips)
Seat 2: CO ($255.50 in chips)
Seat 4: BTN ($81.75 in chips)
Seat 5: SB ($196 in chips)
Seat 6: BB ($57.88 in chips)
SB: posts small blind $1
BBs: posts big blind $2
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to UTG [A/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif]
UTG: raises to $7
CO: folds
BTN: calls $7
SB: calls $6
BB: folds
----- FLOP ----- [5/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif]
SB: bets $2
UTG: raises to $22
BTN: folds
SB: raises to $42
UTG: ???

[/ QUOTE ]

When in this situation without reads, I'm forced to ask myself: what is my villain telling me. Well...

Preflop: he told you that he doesn't hold a premium hand, but he also doesn't hold complete trash.

Flop: when he bet $2 into a $21 pot, he told you he was an idiot (but he didn't say which kind). When he min-raised your very real raise, he's telling you that he isn't afraid of hands like the ones you are representing (AK or AA). When somebody tells me that they aren't afraid of my TPTK or overpair, I have to ask if they think I'm very weak and can find quite a bit of fold equity in me because they are an excellent and imaginative player. But, from his $2 bet, we know that your villain is not an excellent player.

Therefore, a great majority of the time, you are drawing to 2 outs after villain behaves this way. Without reads, I'm folding here.

[JudoGirl]

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: he told you that he doesn't hold a premium hand, but he also doesn't hold complete trash...

...Flop: when he bet $2 into a $21 pot, he told you he was an idiot...

...from his $2 bet, we know that your villain is not an excellent player....


[/ QUOTE ]

While I won't disagree with your conclusion that a fold is appropriate here, it is worth pointing out that you are selectively using the info you have about opponent being an idiot. Based on the $2 bet, you conclude he is an idiot and not an excellent player, and thus he must have a good hand. But since he is an idiot, the premise that his original call means he doesn't have a trash hand goes out the window. And since he is an idiot, we can't presume that he is even thinking about your cards or what you are representing. He may simply know that he has a K with a good kicker.

That door, like Boy George, swings both ways.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: he told you that he doesn't hold a premium hand, but he also doesn't hold complete trash...

...Flop: when he bet $2 into a $21 pot, he told you he was an idiot...

...from his $2 bet, we know that your villain is not an excellent player....


[/ QUOTE ]

While I won't disagree with your conclusion that a fold is appropriate here, it is worth pointing out that you are selectively using the info you have about opponent being an idiot. Based on the $2 bet, you conclude he is an idiot and not an excellent player, and thus he must have a good hand. But since he is an idiot, the premise that his original call means he doesn't have a trash hand goes out the window. And since he is an idiot, we can't presume that he is even thinking about your cards or what you are representing. He may simply know that he has a K with a good kicker.

That door, like Boy George, swings both ways.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even idiots don't like to lose money. His flop 3-bet is his way of being tricky and saying "gotcha!"

[CryptoManiac]

Thanks for your thoughts everyone.

I folded so I don't know what he had in the end. I assumed it to be a set. I didn't play the hand very well and I did 3 bet - I put it up to $75 then folded to his all in. I think every single line suggested in this post was better than my line. Still, you live and learn eh?

[ QUOTE ]
If he is on a draw, I don't think he gets the right implied odds unless he hits his draw on the turn and you let him get you all in. Once he has misses the turn but calls your bet he has put so much money into the pot that he has made a huge mistake and cannot get enough money into the pot on the river to make up for his mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Guy's who Minbet into a $21 pot likely don't even think about things like odds... they see a draw and it's either enough to pay to draw to or too much to pay to draw to.

And vs some of them there's no such thing as too much to pay.

[ QUOTE ]
I dont know lol

The way the flop was played was really weird.
How can afford to clown around with that tiny $2 bet like that with just a king? It really looks like he's trying to get you to raise.

This ones got me confused

[/ QUOTE ]

I had a hand exactly like this at .25/.50c 6-Max on UB this morning... Raised AQ utg while I was lagging it up and got called by the SB... this donkey who loved to min bet and min raise and wouldn't get it in without the nuts.

Flop came KQ7 and he bet 70c into a $7 pot... I called not wanting to raise it since I doubted he'd fold anything

Turn was a 5 and he bet $1.5 into a $9 pot... I called

River was another 5 and he fired full pot at me... I figured he was trying to shove me off the hand with a busted J10 straight and called... and he showed me 777 and took it.

Bad players don't make sense... it doesn't mean they don't have hands and it doesn't mean they'd even dream of folding.

[ QUOTE ]
Unless I've seen him doing this before with tpt/gk v preflop raiser I'm folding this everytime. Small lead followed by min reraise is virtually always a monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah its like when they minbet the flop and turn and then fullpot/push the river on a random rag... fvcking donkeys.

[J Chap]

One last small thing to consider: He just sat down, so not only do you have no reads on him, he also has no reads on you.

That, IMO, adds about 3-4 drops to the scariness of his min-raise.

He is either drunk or fearless.

I think I fold here after the min re-raise. This looks like a donk trying to extract value out of a set, especially because of the $2 bet. Virtually every time I see this move pulled the min-raiser has a set or two pair.

[pokerjoker]

I didn't see him min raise in my earlier post...yup its a fold w/o reads.