View Full Version : AK
jason_t
11-21-2005, 01:26 PM
The first four players fold to a 15/5/1.2 over 1000 hands. These are mined stats so I don't have a more specific read on him. He raises and I 3-bet A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif next in; it's folded back to him and he caps. I call. We're early in the session and my account is new so his read on me is limited.
Flop: K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif
He bets, I call.
Turn: 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif
He bets, I call.
River: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif
He bets, I call.
bugstud
11-21-2005, 01:32 PM
I hope you got to chop. Maybe if you BVT you could raise enough to get him to fold aa.
jason_t
11-21-2005, 01:35 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I hope you got to chop. Maybe if you BVT you could raise enough to get him to fold aa.
[/ QUOTE ]
BVT?
PITTM
11-21-2005, 01:37 PM
I actually think this is a fairly interesting hand. i thought about it for a few minutes and decided that i like this line, mostly because i dislike all of the alternatives.
preflop is obv.
the flop was where i initially thought i would raise, but then i realized that all that raise would do is either push him off/slow him down with a worse hand or have him raise a better hand. Folding this flop is obviously hideous, raising is questionable, so why not call?
The turn, again, if we raise him, he folds or 3 bets us, keep him betting/you not folding to a 3bet.
The river: In my head, i now cannot see you winning the pot. Unless he has AQ(almost never) or AK for the chop, i would imagine we're pretty owned. So raising is a bad idea(unless we have a strong desire to fold to a 3 bet), folding is a bad idea, so call.
/images/graemlins/heart.gif
rj
silkyslim
11-21-2005, 01:41 PM
ok tell me why no raises.
PITTM
11-21-2005, 01:42 PM
i did. what are you beating that capped preflop and is calling your raises here?
rj
Buckmulligan
11-21-2005, 01:43 PM
the turn call is kind of thinand the river bet is really thin, but that's not me saying we should fold it
Nick C
11-21-2005, 01:46 PM
[ QUOTE ]
ok tell me why no raises.
[/ QUOTE ]
We're probably not winning.
What is the opening range of a 15/5 ?
This hand looks good... it's a bit much to expect him to show up with JJ or KQ here but there's always the oddball %, the chance of a split and the fact that he just wants you to fold when he has 10-10 and JJ that make this calling down worthwhile. AQ possible too.
Nick C
11-21-2005, 01:58 PM
[ QUOTE ]
What is the opening range of a 15/5 ?
[/ QUOTE ]
It depends on what hands he favors (big cards vs. pairs, for instance), but here's one possible range:
AA-99
AK
AQ
And that's just for the initial raise.
shant
11-21-2005, 01:58 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I hope you got to chop. Maybe if you BVT you could raise enough to get him to fold aa.
[/ QUOTE ]
Dude, you and I both know you need a way more specific read to BVT this hand. Maybe if Jason had talked to this guy for five to ten minutes.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is the opening range of a 15/5 ?
[/ QUOTE ]
It depends on what hands he favors (big cards vs. pairs, for instance), but here's one possible range:
AA-99
AK
AQ
And that's just for the initial raise.
[/ QUOTE ]
Assuming this is his range I don't think you should three bet preflop.
B Dids
11-21-2005, 02:06 PM
I guess.
The aggrohushposter inside me wants to raise/fold somewhere, maybe on the river, but that sounds dumb.
jason_t
11-21-2005, 02:08 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I guess.
The aggrohushposter inside me wants to raise/fold somewhere, maybe on the river, but that sounds dumb.
[/ QUOTE ]
If you're raising the river then you should be raising sooner.
krimson
11-21-2005, 02:08 PM
Looks like he has really high raising standards with those stats, so I would say his capping range is AK,AA-QQ, slightly favouring AA/KK.
On the flop:
AK - 6 ways
AA - 3 ways
KK - 1 way
QQ - 3 ways
Generously, let's call this 50/50 to split the pot if we call down.
Final pot will be 19.5 sb's, let's just round up to 20sb's, so a split is worth 10 sb's to us.
We win those 10sb's 50% of the time, so it's worth 5sb's, and costs us 5sb's to call down.
The analysis was slightly generous to get a neutral ev result, but I think that missed value is made up for from the times we spike another K and beat AA, and the times that villian is just getting way out of hand / tilting.
In conclusion, I think this call down from the flop is no better than neutral ev. I don't see anything wrong with just folding the flop.
[ QUOTE ]
I actually think this is a fairly interesting hand. i thought about it for a few minutes and decided that i like this line, mostly because i dislike all of the alternatives.
preflop is obv.
the flop was where i initially thought i would raise, but then i realized that all that raise would do is either push him off/slow him down with a worse hand or have him raise a better hand. Folding this flop is obviously hideous, raising is questionable, so why not call?
The turn, again, if we raise him, he folds or 3 bets us, keep him betting/you not folding to a 3bet.
The river: In my head, i now cannot see you winning the pot. Unless he has AQ(almost never) or AK for the chop, i would imagine we're pretty owned. So raising is a bad idea(unless we have a strong desire to fold to a 3 bet), folding is a bad idea, so call.
/images/graemlins/heart.gif
rj
[/ QUOTE ]
with the 15/5/1.2 stats I cant see that he capps pre-flop with other hands then JJ-AA or AK here. The A on the river doesnt make the hand any diffrent, I cant se that he holds JJ after betting the flop and turn. So you are allmost drawing dead from the turn, if not hopefully a split.
private joker
11-21-2005, 03:24 PM
Standard.
I'm looking for a spot to fold here since AA, KK, QQ is so likely. We're basically looking for a split or hope that the PT stats are misleading. Anyone have any ideas on where or how to fold this one?
krimson
11-21-2005, 04:00 PM
I'm not sure how accurate my analysis above was, but it looked to be almost neutral ev to call down off the flop. I would imagine if you call a flop bet, that calling the rest of the hand for a split is necessity.
BWebb
11-21-2005, 04:16 PM
I think a flop call is mandatory because we have the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. If we are going to fold, it should be on the turn. Whether we should do that or not will take more time for me to decide.
holdemfan
11-21-2005, 05:05 PM
Im curious if a flop raise has any value?
1. He 3bets and we toss.
2. He calls and cks the turn giving us the river for free.
3. He calls and leads the river causing us to continue to scratch our heads.
Your thoughts?
chesspain
11-21-2005, 05:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Standard.
[/ QUOTE ]
krimson
11-21-2005, 05:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
1. He 3bets and we toss.
[/ QUOTE ]
What if he 3-bets AK here?
MrEngenic
11-21-2005, 05:14 PM
I call down and I don't think it should be played any other way. He doesn't have to be that supertight to make it the correct play either.
holdemfan
11-21-2005, 05:18 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
1. He 3bets and we toss.
[/ QUOTE ]
What if he 3-bets AK here?
[/ QUOTE ]
Good point. Im just trying to think thru hands better and learning.
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