Not much value in a value bet

[pokerjunky]

MP1 is decent, your average TAG.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO posts a blind of $5.
Hero calls, 2 folds[/i]</font>, MP1 calls, 2 folds[/i]</font>, CO (poster) checks, 2 folds[/i]</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif 4 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, CO folds, BB folds.

Turn: (3.20 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 players)</font>
Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

River: (5.20 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 players)</font>
Hero checks to induce a bluff.

Final Pot: 6.20 BB

Looks good, he will not pay you off with a busted draw.

[Nick C]

I think that usually when you win the river will get checked through.

Still, your river plan seems all right to me. Occasionally MP2 will bet a busted draw, figuring it's a way of folding out your better busted draw.

[Nick Royale]

I don't think my average TAG will bluff often here. I honestly have very hard to put him on a hand that beats you since he'll raise any Q (or better hand) on the flop. He's probably on a draw and it's possible he's ahead more often than not when he calls, but check/folding isn't an option. Still I think he'll call more hands than he'll bet and a fold to a raise would be easy. EDIT: If I knew he's a good player I'm check/calling, but it seems the only thing we have is stats, no?

I check/call that River.

He may have a busted draw and won't pay off a value bet but would possibly bluff.

You may also be behind if he's the kind who'll let someone out of position bet, bet, bet...then raise the River.

I'd value bet AQ or an overpair, but not Top pair-medium kicker.

[Buckmulligan]

I think an induced bluff would be better if a heart didn't drop. The only reason I'm checking here is if I think I'm behind, and I probably don't.

This is terrible and I'm surprised no one has said so. Your opponent has you beat VERY rarely here, bet and print $10. Also, unless your game is very loose this preflop limp is pretty bad.

[Nick Royale]

A tag won't pay off with a draw here so he's not calling with many hands we beat making a check/call much less than terrible. Personally I still prefer bet/fold.

The poster makes this preflop call close, but as you say it's depending on the table.

Easy bet on the river.

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A tag won't pay off with a draw here so he's not calling with many hands we beat making a check/call much less than terrible. Personally I still prefer bet/fold.

The poster makes this preflop call close, but as you say it's depending on the table.

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A tag has us beat almost never here.

[Nick Royale]

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A tag won't pay off with a draw here so he's not calling with many hands we beat making a check/call much less than terrible. Personally I still prefer bet/fold.

The poster makes this preflop call close, but as you say it's depending on the table.

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A tag has us beat almost never here.

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And a tag pays us off when beat almost never here.

[Nick Royale]

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Easy bet on the river.

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Ok, I guess I'll have to take your word, since you don't have arguments.

Do you think a TAG bluffs this river often?

[Nick Royale]

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Do you think a TAG bluffs this river often?

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No, as I've stated in all my previous posts I like bet/fold best, but the EV between bet/fold and check/call is close. Posters saying it's not doesn't analyse this hand like it should be. But it's also depending on how solid our read is. If we know for sure we're up against a solid, good playing tag I actually think I prefer check/call. But if it's a pretty vague read from stats I prefer bet/fold.

[pokerjunky]

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This is terrible and I'm surprised no one has said so. Your opponent has you beat VERY rarely here, bet and print $10. Also, unless your game is very loose this preflop limp is pretty bad.

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What kind of hand are you putting the TAG on here besides a draw or a hand that beats mine? Do you think he's just calling down with something like A5s or Qx? That would make him a calling station, not a TAG. Any of those hands would have raised the flop if they thought they could beat mine. The turn and the river didn't make him any hands that had any business calling the flop (except 76s), so what else could he have besides a draw or a monster waiting to raise the river? Betting the river accomplishes nothing besides making him fold his busted draw or getting raised by a better hand IMO.

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This is terrible and I'm surprised no one has said so. Your opponent has you beat VERY rarely here, bet and print $10. Also, unless your game is very loose this preflop limp is pretty bad.

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What kind of hand are you putting the TAG on here besides a draw or a hand that beats mine? Do you think he's just calling down with something like A5s or Qx? That would make him a calling station, not a TAG. Any of those hands would have raised the flop if they thought they could beat mine. The turn and the river didn't make him any hands that had any business calling the flop (except 76s), so what else could he have besides a draw or a monster waiting to raise the river? Betting the river accomplishes nothing besides making him fold his busted draw or getting raised by a better hand IMO.

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You guys are assuming way too much about your opponent. This is Party right? How much of a read do you have on this guy? Even with some players that I might think are TAGs, they will pay me off on this river with Q/lower kicker or even mid pair.

If this guy is such a solid player what the hell is he calling you with? A backdoor flush draw? Stop focking around and bet this river.

...but how many times is this guy even playing Q-rag.
Even QJ has him beat.

As I said before, I value bet AQ or KQ but not worse.

[bobdibble]

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This is terrible and I'm surprised no one has said so. Your opponent has you beat VERY rarely here, bet and print $10. Also, unless your game is very loose this preflop limp is pretty bad.

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What kind of hand are you putting the TAG on here besides a draw or a hand that beats mine? Do you think he's just calling down with something like A5s or Qx? That would make him a calling station, not a TAG. Any of those hands would have raised the flop if they thought they could beat mine. The turn and the river didn't make him any hands that had any business calling the flop (except 76s), so what else could he have besides a draw or a monster waiting to raise the river? Betting the river accomplishes nothing besides making him fold his busted draw or getting raised by a better hand IMO.

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I pretty much agree with this 100%. This looks like a TAG that had a draw on the flop. If he had a pair, he should have been raising on the flop.

This seems like the poster child of the time to check the river to induce a bluff.

Note, if villain ended up with a pair above second pair, then he isn't a tag and you need to adjust your read.

[Nick Royale]

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Note, if villain ended up with a pair above second pair, then he isn't a tag and you need to adjust your read.

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If I were villain I could have ended up with a pair of 7s (I assume you mean higher than 2nd pair from the flop) on the river, probably paying off a bet but not betting this river. And I consider myself a tag.

Btw a decent average tag isn't as solid as many seems thinks. I would need to be very confident in my read, not having just some stats, to not bet this river.

[bobdibble]

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Note, if villain ended up with a pair above second pair, then he isn't a tag and you need to adjust your read.

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If I were villain I could have ended up with a pair of 7s (I assume you mean higher than 2nd pair from the flop) on the river, probably paying off a bet but not betting this river. And I consider myself a tag.

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I meant a pair on the flop higher than 7 (Q, or an 88+ pocket pair.. e.g. something higher than what is now mid pair).. I just worded it strangely. Q should have raised the flop. Most Q's that beat us should have raised pre-flop. 88+ should have raised pre-flop, probably should have raised the flop, but waiting till a non-club turn to raise isn't the end of the world either. If he had something from that range, he isn't a tag.

So, if he is a tag, he's only going to call us on the river with a draw that paired his 7. There are far more other draws that missed than the oesd that paired the 7, so he most likely has nothing.

I check to let him bluff.

p.s. I think a case could be made for a tag villain not even calling the river with a 7. Wtf is hero betting with that a 7 would beat? Hero didn't raise pre-flop, so a big ace is unlikely. Hero claims to like the flop. One of the flop cards paired on the river, and another is an overcard to his 7 and the pot is only medium size. This would be an easier river call for villain if hero had raised pre-flop.

[BoxLiquid]

Betting river seems bad to me. TAG is obviously on a draw. He's gonna raise with whatever monster he has on the turn. Checking seems to be more positive ev in the long run.

[noir]

"Also, unless your game is very loose this preflop limp is pretty bad."

I hope I'm not just a blind SSHE disciple, but I'm limping with this all the time. Certainly there are games where this could be a mistake, but I'm not playing in those games.

[Nick Royale]

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"Also, unless your game is very loose this preflop limp is pretty bad."

I hope I'm not just a blind SSHE disciple, but I'm limping with this all the time. Certainly there are games where this could be a mistake, but I'm not playing in those games.

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Are you playing 5/10? In the 5/10-games I play I think limping QTs utg is slightly -EV, but there's some loose 5/10 where I limp. If you're playing &gt;5/10 I can tell you that one major diffrance is that 5/10 is much more aggressive preflop than lower limits, making this limp worse.

In this hand, with one poster, I think limping is fine.

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Note, if villain ended up with a pair above second pair, then he isn't a tag and you need to adjust your read.

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If I were villain I could have ended up with a pair of 7s (I assume you mean higher than 2nd pair from the flop) on the river, probably paying off a bet but not betting this river. And I consider myself a tag.

Btw a decent average tag isn't as solid as many seem to think. I would need to be very confident in my read, not having just some stats, to not bet this river.

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Agreed. Stop with this inducing bluff stuff. Fancy Play Syndrome.