AK - raise or call? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

11-21-2005, 08:55 AM

What do you think of my line here? Do I want to put a raise in anywhere to knock out BB?

READS
Both players have TAG stats after reasonable samples.

Villain (MP3) is 20/11/2. I have a feeling JJ and TT are within his capping range. I've seen him cap a few hands recently, which led me to question his capping range. However, I have not seen him showdown either JJ or TT after a pf cap, and thus may be totally off.

BB is 16/5/2.3

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, MP2 raises, 1 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, MP2 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.67 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (10.67 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, BB folds.

Final Pot: 12.67 BB.

11-21-2005, 09:03 AM

You have to raise either the flop or the turn and one of the reasons is you have to get BB out (or at least making him pay), he could have a gutshot or something like a Q and thus 5 outs. I'd probably raise the flop.

@bsolute_luck

11-21-2005, 10:06 AM

i think it's fine. even a 5-outer is getting pretty good odds on the flop and you'd hate to get 3-bet.

the river is the question as i doubt JJ/TT is betting again, but the pot is too big and you may split the pot.

11-21-2005, 10:12 AM

I think you should raise on the flop with this hand. You want to give BB the chance to fold a midpair or a gutshot, he is more likely to have those hands +a total miss and fold if you raise than he is having a FD and is getting correct odds to call. I was thinking that you might want to raise the turn, the previous sentence is what changed my mind.

TomBrooks

11-21-2005, 10:19 AM

I think not raising the flop and offering BB 14:1 to draw is a big mistake. If you raise he is at least making a mistake to draw to a gutshot. If he is drawing to more outs like if he has one pair or a flush draw, he would still be correct to continue if you raise, but why let him draw for half price? How are you going to make money when he misses if you don't charge him more when you have the chance?

BoxLiquid

11-21-2005, 11:01 AM

I would raise that flop and see how he reacts. You have the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif which might save you too.

C/r'ing the turn IMO is a bad idea. It would be very costly if you're behind to even the BB.

Make BB call 2 on the flop is what I would do.

MrEngenic

11-21-2005, 12:30 PM

I like it. I don't think a raise is good here even if you KNOW BB has a hand which he has odds to call with. The reason is that maybe you are not protecting your own hand or half the pot. If your opponent has AK too you want BB in even if he himself has odds to call.

11-21-2005, 09:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like it. I don't think a raise is good here even if you KNOW BB has a hand which he has odds to call with. The reason is that maybe you are not protecting your own hand or half the pot. If your opponent has AK too you want BB in even if he himself has odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get it? Why do we want him to continue to draw so we can gain 1 and 1/4 big bets or lose the entire pot to a suckout rather than creating some dead money in the pot and upgrading a worst-case scenario from a loss to a split?

adios

11-22-2005, 08:46 AM

Can't put the BB on a hand here except maybe A /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif or A /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I'd call on the flop intending to pop the turn even if a /images/graemlins/heart.gif comes. I can't see a BB with the stats you post (I realize that it's a small sample) calling two more small bets cold pre-flop with any hand that would give him a /images/graemlins/heart.gif draw on the flop since you have the Ace /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Puts max pressure on BB and you get a better sense of where you stand with MP villan. I can see the arguments for raising the flop though. Interesting hand.