Interesting 10/25 hand against a solid player.

[AZK]

10/25 at foxwoods with duck and Jon (the lawyer from foxwoods very nice guy, very solid) sitting directly to my left. Everyone else sucks though. Jon is in the SB and has me covered, I'm in the CO with T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Someone opens for 75 early, a bunch of calls and I call.

Flop T /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

PFR checks, weird guy bets 100, bad player calls 100, I make it 700 (which is near potsized), Jon cold calls out of the SB after checking (WTF?) everyone folds.

Turn 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Jon leads for 800, I think for a few and call.

River 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Jon bets $1000, I think for a few seconds and shove for 3.6 more on top.

Thoughts?

[Matt Flynn]

[ QUOTE ]

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

With two flush draws out there on the turn and you calling, he is getting odds to call you down on the river, especially if he reads you for any weakness. Dangerous move. Hope you got away with it.

My thoughts are he either flopped a set or 2 pair according to that line.

[aggie]

This seems like a "let's throw a bunch of money out there and hope he folds a better hand" sort of move. But as you said, John is a good and thinking player and may get stubburn with the better hand. Before John lays down his hand he's gonna have to put you on a hand that beats him and i don't think he's gonna put you on a set or a flush as these both seem unlikely given the play of the hand.

I don't see john having a one pair hand here either and i don't see him folding anything bigger than that. He knows he's getting 2.5/1. He has a flush draw, two pair (34s to be exact), or a set. I don't really like your raise in any one of these circumstances. The only way i see John laying down a bigger hand is if he believes you are extremely tight. I think a diamond flush draw from John is a strong possibility here so I don't think a call would be bad given the nice price the pot is laying you.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

Jon is a VERY tight player who is not afraid to make tough calls and he can be tricky at times. So while he is not a typical nit, cold-calling a raise out of position with anything but a set or two pair here is still almost impossible for me to imagine.
The one scenario in which I think this river move makes sense is if John decided to play JJ this way, which while not inconceivable is still very improbable.

Also, don't think that his less than pot-sized bets are signs of weakness-he makes these sized bets with strong hands all the time. I don't think he would call with a draw on that flop either. If you did somehow manage to get John to fold you got very lucky, and from playing with him on numerous occasions I can tell you that running bluffs into him when he's been giving action is not a +EV decision.

[AZK]

yeah, everyonce in a while I think, "Hey shove, there is no way he can call this..." Definitely not the best strategy. I didn't really know what to think, his turn bet really confused me.

I just don't understand what you could be representing here.. What could you raise so much on the flop with that you his runner runner clubs? What could you hit on the river that would make you push? a set of 5s? an inside straight? The ONLY hand he can put you on is 67 of diamonds, and that just seems quite unlikely. He's probably got a set of something, and like it has been said, I don't see how he can fold unless he's sure you would NEVER bluff the river... I don't mind calling as much as I do raising, there is just no hand that he can check call the flop with and lead the turn that you could have beaten.. and he can't call you with a worse hand, except MAYBE 99, and even then he'd have to have some sort of extreme read, and it sounds like he's much too tight to play that hand this way.

[aggie]

I'm not sure, but i certainly would not characterize John as a "VERY tight player"....Would you? I think he's very capable of showing up with 34s on this river although i think a flush draw and a set here are both more likely.....

[lapoker17]

Cool hand.

I think his call on the flop can't be a made hand if he's really solid - solid guys OOP are 3 betting sets against raisers like you with boards like that.

I think he has big diamonds, and also thinks you're FOS. That turn bet really looks like he's setting his own price, not charging you. I just call on the end - but I'm 3000 miles away, and if I was looking at him I would probably do something else.

Someone also mentioned JJ - that would be weird, but possible too, I guess.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
i think a flush draw likely.....

[/ QUOTE ]
u keep saying this, but i cant believe u...

[AZK]

fwiw, i did nto have this lunatic image at the time, i had a pretty quiet, tight/solid image. I hadn't showed down many hands in any pot over $200, and the only other hand we played was where I raised two limpers, jon called, flop came 884, I had AA, I bet 1/2 pot, eh checkraised small, I called, he checkted turn, i checked, he bet small on river, I called and he showed trip 8. That was the only hand we played against one another.

I would classify him as tight preflop relative to everyone else, but not rockish by any means, i mean he is definitely in there with 43s for 75 6 ways, but I was hoping he would lay down 43 to my river bet.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
i think a flush draw likely.....


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


u keep saying this, but i cant believe u...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea.....This is a weird hand because it's tough to figure where john's at....A made hand is more likely than a flush draw but a diamond flush draw is a definite possibility.

[lapoker17]

I just don't see that many good players slowplaying bottom 2 when a pot is already getting big.

Your solid image changes things some though - I assumed you had been dicking around more.

[AZK]

yeah, negative, I was stuck the entire trip, I tend to play a lot tighter earlier on when I'm stuck.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think a flush draw likely.....


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


u keep saying this, but i cant believe u...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea.....This is a weird hand because it's tough to figure where john's at....A made hand is more likely than a flush draw but a diamond flush draw is a definite possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]
well, i suppose youd know better than me about this guys tendencies... AZK said hes pretty good, so i dont think he makes that post oak bluff on the river w/ a busted hand, but maybe.

i talked to AZK about this on AIM, and i liked the way he played the first three streets. i could see pushing the turn, there has got to be a decent chance hes hoping u do just that and has a set.
when the guy bets only a dime on the end, i put him on AT and go all in. i think a good plyr will also be laying down a set sometimes. its not that hard to put ari on a straight here.

[AZK]

flush draw I suppose is possible...donk betting the turn? If that's the case though he isn't firing the river, imo, then again you play a lot more with him than I do.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
when the guy bets only a dime on the end, i put him on AT and go all in. i think a good plyr will also be laying down a set sometimes. its not that hard to put ari on a straight here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, i like this play much better against an unknown "good player" (as he may have very well been to AZK)....But John is very good at making strong reads and calling with marginal holdings. Especially getting 2.5-1. He's definitely one of the top 3 players that regularly plays the foxwoods NL games and you can certainly make an argument that he's the best. Given AZK's at the time tight image, i think john might get off an overpair or A-10 (although i think these are both unlikely holdings). But overall, i think this move is definitely -EV against John

[lapoker17]

good analysis flawless.

[Rex Bluett]

[ QUOTE ]
EP opens for 75 bunch of calls I call Flop T /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

PFR checks, weird guy bets 100, bad player calls 100, I make it 700 (which is near potsized), Jon cold calls out of the SB after checking (WTF?) everyone folds

[/ QUOTE ] diamond:

I never played in this game but do good players really check a set and then call from sb encouraging a big field to overcall with straight and flush draws on the flop.
I think he's cautiouslly playing bottom two , or maybe A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif deciding to play the draw with a bit of deception and a weak river bluff to make you think he wants a call?

[chuddo]

is it possible he cold-called the raise in hopes that weird guy and bad player may come along to the raise, with him holding a set and the pot getting very big quickly into the turn?

when his hopes of a giant pot with the two donkeys failed to materialize, he may have tried to weak-lead 3-bet all in.

when this failed and you just called his small bet, he may be putting you on a big combo draw that decided to take the cheap one, 67dd, that may now have straightened on the river.

but laying him this price i do not know if he folds a set.

a hand that i have seen take a similar line a few times is bottom two that is concerned with the action, doesn't really know where it is, and wants to get to showdown.

[thabadguy]

Nice post AZK.
The only monster I can put you on here is 67d.
The smooth call on the flop by John is scary, hes done that against me a buncha times, I think he was going for a checkraise on the flop, but since it got bet and raised, he couldve very easily smooth called with a set/overpair not wanting to show a tremendous amount of strength.
When you flat call his turn bet, I am pretty sure John puts you on a draw, now the question is if he believe you have 67d on the river when you push, but getting the pot odds that he is, i think hell call with an overpair,set etc.
I mean your hand is either a monster or not very much, so i could see him looking you up with AT or similar.
I think if you raise/shove turn, you win this pot a lot more often against an overpair, than if you shove river.
This is from my experience playing John.

P.S Looking at the pf action, i like this even less, because he is less likely to have an overpair than a set.

[HoldEmKillah]

Jon is smart enough to know that you don't have clubs since the ten is a /images/graemlins/club.gif. Your line looks more like a missed draw than anything else and he may in fact look you up with a set (or even tp/tk). He's very tricky so I wouldn't be surprised to see top set here, hoping you would raise the turn and then he's value betting the river.

I've seen him make some tough calls and take weird lines with the nuts before. Try this on someone else.

[creedofhubris]

AZK: in general, I hate bluffing with hands with showdown value.

I think the place to make a move in this hand, if you want to make a move, is the turn. (I don't consider the flop raise a move, that's a raise for value.)

Seems like he could on be the Ace high flush draw because he is cold calling your raise, he could also have a set but slowplaying a set like that is just not a play a solid player would make b/c of the ways he could lose. If he had a set he would have reraised on the flop. So I would have put him on a higher flush draw than you, and would have raised him on the turn, because I see his 800 bet as being weak hoping that he doesn't get raised so he can see the river card.

Hey I might be totally wrong /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[mother_brain]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he has big diamonds

[/ QUOTE ]

I think his river bet was a blocking bet hoping you had J9 or 56 or QJ of diamonds, something like that. Your line looks a lot like what you have. I don't think he is folding a better hand here.

[aggie]

I don’t normally do this, but I will give you the full explanation for the hand. BTW, this hand haunted me more than any other in over 30 hours of playing. I came as close as you can to calling, but you will see below as to why I did not.

I agree with AZK’s assessment of the table. In fact, I hated to see him arrive there because it was Vanessa to my immediate right and no other solid players. In fact, people were raising PF with ANY ace and any two face cards . . . seriously. And they were calling big re-raises with KJ, etc. It was a fantastically good table.

I had JJ UTG. I know that if I raise UTG, even up to 200, all it will do is make a giant pot – like four callers and me – and I will be in the worst position not knowing what my opponents could have. So, I limp in, and when it is raised to 75 I just call, knowing that re-raising to 400 may still very well produce three callers. Again, I do not want to play a 1200 pot on the flop with JJ UTG against people who will call with any overcards.

On the flop, I was looking for a check raise, but when AZK raised to 700, I don’t want to re-raise him and commit 2000 or my whole stack with an over pair against what I perceive to be a very tight opponent. I want to gain more information on the next street. At this time, I had only played with or remembered playing with AZK one time before and he was extremely tight. I know that he is a sound player and also know that he could have made the 700 bet with air, KNOWING the donks will not likely call that raise given that there was a 100 bet and one call only. So, I just call and see what he will do based on my knowledge of him as a player. Part of that knowledge came from the hand I had played with him earlier where I called him on the flop, checked the turn and made a relatively small value bet on the river when I had trip 8s and he had AA. So, I know he is aware of that hand that happened an hour or two earlier in the session.

So, I place a small bet on the turn (800), thinking that if he has a monster, he will now make a huge re-raise and if he has a draw, he will likely fold with only one card to come, and he may also fold thinking I am on a draw with the Ad, and so will fold if he does not have part of the board. Lastly, he knows I value bet him in the earlier hand. So, my 800 turn bet was defensive and for information, and for value if he has A, 10, and can not lay it down. I wanted to make it a strange amount to confuse him so that he would not know what I had and also freeze him into making a bad play – whether it was a bad fold, call, or failure to raise me.

On the river, I am nearly certain that he does not have clubs, but I also know him to be very tight and I have not seen him make one big move – ever. And, with the lineup I am used to or remember playing, I know few players capable of making a big all in move on a missed draw. You are one of them, Clint, and that is why I think so highly of your play. My solid, strong rule of thumb is that if I have seen a player play very tight, and he goes all in on the river, OVER THE TOP of my value bet, then a vast majority of the time, he is not making a move on me. Add to that that AZK saw me and value bet the river when I had a very big hand, then my value bet here of 1000 shows strength, and only a reckless player will go all in over the top on a bluff. I did not read AZK as reckless . . . quite the opposite.

When AZK went all in on his hand, I remembered that although tight, he raised PF and called PF raises with some tricky holdings. He could have had 6,7d; he could have had T 8d, and think that I would lay down a set by moving all in, he could have 3,4 of clubs, or 3,4 of any suit and thought that I would lay down a set. Since I can not beat any of these hands, and since I have not seen him make a move like this ever, and since I read him as being smart enough to remember that I value bet the river when I had trip 8s, I think he would not make a reckless move, and I lay down my hand. Believe me, I wanted to call, and I almost did, but when I put it all together, I did not go against all the information I had about him and our session together.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

[ QUOTE ]
The one scenario in which I think this river move makes sense is if John decided to play JJ this way, which while not inconceivable is still very improbable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said, I think that JJ is the only hand John plays this way that lays down the river. AZK got very lucky that this was what he had-I think a vast majority of the time John has better than 1 pair here.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The one scenario in which I think this river move makes sense is if John decided to play JJ this way, which while not inconceivable is still very improbable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said, I think that JJ is the only hand John plays this way that lays down the river. AZK got very lucky that this was what he had-I think a vast majority of the time John has better than 1 pair here.

[/ QUOTE ]
so this guy bets 1K into 3.7 w/ a set?
sounds like a world champ.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The one scenario in which I think this river move makes sense is if John decided to play JJ this way, which while not inconceivable is still very improbable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said, I think that JJ is the only hand John plays this way that lays down the river. AZK got very lucky that this was what he had-I think a vast majority of the time John has better than 1 pair here.

[/ QUOTE ]
so this guy bets 1K into 3.7 w/ a set?
sounds like a world champ.

[/ QUOTE ]

If 1K is all he thinks he can get out of a guy, it doesn't seem to be that bad of a bet. Think of all the posts that said he should just call because his hand has showdown value. Now think about what they would say if John had potted the river.

Granted, John would need to think AZK was pretty weak. But given the lack of a turn raise on a draw heavy board, it's not difficult to make this read-John only read AZK as strong when he came over the top of the rive rbet. So a 1K bet would not be that bad of a value bet w/a set or two pair (and who knows-it might even induce an all-in bluff by missed diamonds).
Sometimes you just bet what you think your opponent can call-we forget this online where reads are difficult and we just go for the bigger bet and hope for the best but with reads it is far more defensible to underbet the pot with monsters.

[flawless_victory]

i actually dont hate the way john played the hand, i just think the analysis in aggie's post was pretty lame.
he totally bashed AZK and gave him no credit, calling him reckless, etc. that BS about him being tight but playing some "wierd holdings" like 67s... WTF IS THAT? i thought he was supposed to be really good?

im sure ari is looking back on this hand thinking gee, i better try to be less reckless next time... acting on a read that this guy is weak and moving in, thats just stupid!
more like, next time im involved w/ some middle aged nit who limp/calls JJ UTG in a donked out game, then proceeds to make tiny underbets on an extremely draw heavy board of all unders hanging a neon light over his head reading I AM WEAK, id be happy to steal that 5K pot again! thx!
BTW/ what do you think ari should buy w/ the money? maybe i should make a poll...

[turnipmonster]

this is easily your best post ever.

[mgsimpleton]

hey i'm heading off to bed and thus too lazy to read most of the analysis...

one thing i have to say and want to see what people thought... the whole time i thought while watching this hand... damn ari just shove the turn. his bet is either a flush draw pricing himself in or a marginal hand testing the waters 85% of the time IMO. just calling the turn makes it far less credible you have him beat when you shove th eriver and you give him much better odds.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW/ what do you think ari should buy w/ the money? maybe i should make a poll...

[/ QUOTE ]

lololololol

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
actually dont hate the way john played the hand, i just think the analysis in aggie's post was pretty lame.
he totally bashed AZK and gave him no credit, calling him reckless

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually i never bashed anybody or called anybody reckless. I just didn't like Ari's play in this hand. And i never claimed to be a poker authority. I was just offering my opinion. I strive to make my critisism constructive and i'm sorry if you were offended "Flawless Victory"

[ QUOTE ]
that BS about him being tight but playing some "wierd holdings" like 67s... WTF IS THAT? i thought he was supposed to be really good?


[/ QUOTE ]

Um i believe the way John described Ari (without seeing the thread) and the way Ari described how he had been playing were almost EXACTLY the same. Seems to me like John had been paying attention.

[ QUOTE ]
im sure ari is looking back on this hand thinking gee, i better try to be less reckless next time... acting on a read that this guy is weak and moving in, thats just stupid!
more like, next time im involved w/ some middle aged nit who limp/calls JJ UTG in a donked out game, then proceeds to make tiny underbets on an extremely draw heavy board of all unders hanging a neon light over his head reading I AM WEAK, id be happy to steal that 5K pot again! thx!
BTW/ what do you think ari should buy w/ the money? maybe i should make a poll...


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure you had a nice time writing this but it's all pretty much nonsense. And bashing the play of a guy you've never seen play before is pretty dumb. The move Ari made against John in this case is probably -EV (it may very well be +EV against others).

Looking at one pot and trying to decide what you want to do with the money you won from it is pretty f'in retarded. But i'm pretty sure you know that Flawless? John may have made a mistake betting $1000 on the end and probably made a bigger mistake folding on the river. But as i've said numerous times, John is very good at sniffing out bluffs and making big calls. John would have called ME with the exact same action on this hand which is why i would not make this bluff against him.

I do agree with the Duck that the better play would have been to shove in on the turn when John wasn't getting such a good price.

I hope everything is cleared up now!

[edge]

Ok, hold on. Is aggie the same person as John or not? I am confused.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, hold on. Is aggie the same person as John or not?

[/ QUOTE ]

nope

[turnipmonster]

I agree making a poll about the money is stupid. clearly he should blow it all on strippers and coke hanging out in nyc.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree making a poll about the money is stupid. clearly he should blow it all on strippers and coke hanging out in nyc.

[/ QUOTE ]

coke is so 80s. isn't e the new coke?

[yvesaint]

o just what id love to see, a bunch of male 2+2ers high on e

sausagefest at foxwoods

and duck

[turnipmonster]

the 80s is back, members only jackets and everything. someone hasn't been to any hipster bars in williamsburg recently!

[DVO]

Great thread.

John's preflop play is something I'd like to explore. Anyone else play it this way? I just can't see passing up two opportunities to raise pre-flop here.

Here is his explanation:

I had JJ UTG. I know that if I raise UTG, even up to 200, all it will do is make a giant pot – like four callers and me – and I will be in the worst position not knowing what my opponents could have. So, I limp in, and when it is raised to 75 I just call, knowing that re-raising to 400 may still very well produce three callers. Again, I do not want to play a 1200 pot on the flop with JJ UTG against people who will call with any overcards.

[lapoker17]

[ QUOTE ]
I had JJ UTG. I know that if I raise UTG, even up to 200, all it will do is make a giant pot – like four callers and me – and I will be in the worst position not knowing what my opponents could have. So, I limp in, and when it is raised to 75 I just call, knowing that re-raising to 400 may still very well produce three callers. Again, I do not want to play a 1200 pot on the flop with JJ UTG against people who will call with any overcards.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I don't know why people have ignored this part of the post. The logic behind this shows a clear lack of understanding of some very elementary concepts - Especially given that we've been told repeatedly how soft this game was.

This is the sort of thing you hear at a 2/4 limit table - "I didn't want to raise my Aces out of the BB, because everyone will just call anyway".

[not_da_nizzles]

[ QUOTE ]
Great thread.

John's preflop play is something I'd like to explore. Anyone else play it this way? I just can't see passing up two opportunities to raise pre-flop here.

Here is his explanation:

I had JJ UTG. I know that if I raise UTG, even up to 200, all it will do is make a giant pot – like four callers and me – and I will be in the worst position not knowing what my opponents could have. So, I limp in, and when it is raised to 75 I just call, knowing that re-raising to 400 may still very well produce three callers. Again, I do not want to play a 1200 pot on the flop with JJ UTG against people who will call with any overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you play JJ this weakly pre-flop then you're basically playing it for set value - shut down on the flop when you miss (especially after a bet and a potsized raise).

If you want to play it aggressively (and I think you should) then raise it pre-flop and take advantage of the knowledge that your opponents suck and will call with any 2 overcards. It's not written in stone that you need to continuation bet the flop if it looks bad (A, K or Q) and you don't think the bad players will be moved off of TP. Don't weak bet the turn either.

mj

[AZK]

[ QUOTE ]
John's preflop play is something I'd like to explore. Anyone else play it this way? I just can't see passing up two opportunities to raise pre-flop here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Recently, I've become a major sucker for dead money preflop, so if I had JJ in the blinds after a 75 ep raise and a dozen callers I would probably be making it $600 to go preflop.