A river situation that gives me problems...

[lil feller]

Villian is 24/14/1.7 but only over about 30 hands. So far nothing thats been showndown has been out of line, just getting some nice starters.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.66 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5.33 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

River: (7.33 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks.

Final Pot: 7.33 BB

I'd like comments on all streets, especially the river. I was certain after villian just called the turn that he had AQ, AJ, JJ or QQ.

Whats the best river line against an opponent who seems to be a standard ABC TAG? Bet/fold, hoping he'll call w/ A-high and might muck a pair? Check/fold assuming he'll never bet a missed A-Big, Check call to let a whiff bet? I really don't know. Any comments on all streets greatly appreciated.

Thanks,

lf

[Noo Yawk]

I don't think he's letting go of any hand on the river that he calls the turn with. The only way you get anymore from a worse hand is checking to get him to bluff.

[baronzeus]

i think he calls you with AQ and AJ almost every time. i also think if he called the turn he's going to showdown. the only hands i can see him having that beat you are JJ and QQ.

I bet/fold this

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he's letting go of any hand on the river that he calls the turn with. The only way you get anymore from a worse hand is checking to get him to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think he calls w/ AJ or AQ? I guess its player dependant, since we don't know much about each other its tough to tell.

lf

[roy_miami]

[ QUOTE ]
A river situation that gives me problems...

[/ QUOTE ]

You should read eric's posts on mixed strategy. This river decision looks like a prime candidate for mixing up what you do.

I would say:
bet/fold-75-85%
check/call-5-15%
bet/call-5-10%
checkraise-0-5%

[lil feller]

Eric's post was great, and is certainly something i'm trying to improve on in my game. Thats part of the reason I posted the hand. I don't think there is a "perfect" solution, i'm not sure of the correct balance however.

lf

EDIT: Lets assume in the future I recognize this as being a good spot to "mix it up". Any educated guesses on what the right mix would be, and what sort of approach to take to get there?

lf

[ihardlyknowher]

I like bet/fold.

[wheelz]

he's more likely to call with AJ/AQ than to bet it and you'll lose the same to JJ/QQ. bet/fold is definitely better than check/call.

[ggbman]

I think you need to bet this river. When you check, he should just about always value bet hands better than yours, but the action so far indictates that he will not raise this river. So basically, you will just get additional value all the times he has a worse hand.

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you need to bet this river. When you check, he should just about always value bet hands better than yours, but the action so far indictates that he will not raise this river. So basically, you will just get additional value all the times he has a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I agree with you and the other posters. Bet/fold is probably the way to go the majority of the time here.

Was the rest of the hand standard?

lf

[ggbman]

Pretty much. When i am in floating mood i might not c/r the flop, but you line in this hand is just fine.

[RED_RAIN]

So we are value betting against worse hands and folding to raise on the river hopefully to better hands.

I just see him folding AQ, AJ a lot more here than if we were to just check and maybe he'll bluff (I think this happens a bunch). I also don't see why we bet here if he has a better hand like Js or Qs, do we think he will fold?

[elindauer]

Hi lil feller,

This is the kind of heads up line I've been exploring a lot in private recently. I'll quickly say that I like your play up to the river. I think your hand ranges are a little tight, but I'll work with them.

Now, what to do on the river? Will she fold JJ-QQ? Will she call ace high? Will she bet JJ-QQ if you check? Will she bet ace high?

You really just don't know the answer to any of these questions. You need to find them out. Until that time, the best strategy is a mixed strategy.

Personally, I like a bet. I want to know if she'll call with ace high. That changes a lot of how I handle the blinds heads up, since it makes it much harder to bluff. So I start there.

Now, if she raises, I like a call. I'll be in the minority here, and I agree the call looks like a long shot. If she's bluffing though, I find out right away what she can do. If she's not, I plant a major message in my opponent's mind. Do not bluff me. I will call. This lets me fold with much more confidence for some time to come.

I think a proper mixed strategy is to check-fold sometimes, check-call sometimes, bet-fold sometimes, and bet-call sometimes, given that you don't know what she'll call with, what she'll bluff-raise, etc etc.

Based on intuiton, I'll throw out some numbers:

check-fold 10%
check-call 30%
bet-call 10%
bet-fold 50%

You can flip a coin or whatever if you don't want to outguess your opponent. If you do want to outguess them and want to go my route, go bet/call. Bet/fold is probably the highest EV play if you took the hand in a vaccuum, but you'll have no idea next time she raises you what to do. Better hope you have a monster next time so you get to see her cards, or good luck guessing, because you've made it clear you can laydown a hand, but you don't know if she'll notice.

Good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
So we are value betting against worse hands and folding to raise on the river hopefully to better hands.

I just see him folding AQ, AJ a lot more here than if we were to just check and maybe he'll bluff (I think this happens a bunch). I also don't see why we bet here if he has a better hand like Js or Qs, do we think he will fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

In my experience, big aces do not bluff very much. It's just an extension of the idea that players with hands with some showdown quality seem to bluff less than they should.

A bet against typical opponents is purely for value. AQ / AJ is much more common than QQ / JJ, by almost 3:1.

my 2 cents.
Eric

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]


A bet against typical opponents is purely for value. AQ / AJ is much more common than QQ / JJ, by almost 3:1.


[/ QUOTE ]

youre not considering that most sane ppl muck AJ to a CR on K83r.

[Noo Yawk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he's letting go of any hand on the river that he calls the turn with. The only way you get anymore from a worse hand is checking to get him to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think he calls w/ AJ or AQ? I guess its player dependant, since we don't know much about each other its tough to tell.

lf

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry Lil feller, my girfriend was yelling at me from the other room that our tv show was starting when I origanally posted, so edited a bit too much in my haste. hence the reason I don't post too much!

It's not that I don't think AJ and AQ aren't calling here, although I think they call much less than most do, It's that I hate getting blown off my hand by worse hands, and I hate putting money in when I'm behind. Inducing bluffs has become a staple of my game against over aggressive opponents, just like value betting is a staple against passive calling stations. Mixed strategy is of course superior against thinking opponents. Your determination about what to do here is going to depend on a read.

[lil feller]

She had JJ and HHIG

If you're in her shoes, and you get c/r on that flop and led into on the turn, do any of you find a fold w/ JJ on the turn, or the river?

lf

Lil Feller-

if you're going along with Eric's ideas, you're asking the wrong question. I think you should phrase it as:
Holding JJ when you've been checkraised on the flop and led into on the turn, what is your distribution of folding/calling/raising?

Absent a read, I'm in the {5,80,15} mood, myself on the turn, and probably {20,80,0} (essentially) on the river

[HopeydaFish]

[ QUOTE ]
She had JJ and HHIG

If you're in her shoes, and you get c/r on that flop and led into on the turn, do any of you find a fold w/ JJ on the turn, or the river?

lf

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends how often my opponent tends to c/r the flop without at least TPTK. She might have noticed that you tend to automatically c/r the flop when a high card hits in these situations so she still figured there was a very good chance she was still ahead. If I was her in the situation you described, I'd have re-raised you after your c/r.