A hand at the Commerce 9/18

[belloc]

Last night was a Visarrific night at the 9/18. My table was generally loose and passive, but this hand came during one of those weird chop-the-blinds lulls.

Opponent #1 to my left is a loose-typical (not irrationally aggressive, but not all that passive either) middle aged asian guy who has facial expressions like Peter Falk, Opponent #2 is gamblegamble laggy asian in his late 30s.

I have Q/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif in EP. I open, Falk 3-bets on my left, it folds around to GambleGamble in the SB, who says "let's gamble" and calls the 3-bets, I cap, both call.

Flop: K /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet, Falk calls, GG calls.

Turn: 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I check, Falk bets, GG calls, I raise.

[Klepton]

are you raising to get rid of a better hand? because that won't happen.

i would just bet out the turn, and if raised, call and fold UI on the river.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
are you raising to get rid of a better hand? because that won't happen.

i would just bet out the turn, and if raised, call and fold UI on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
yes, bet the turn. your raise is not for value at this point. Falk's 3 bet could easily mean a hand that beats you at this point. This fancy play will probably not fold loose gamblors with a king.

[eviljeff]

I think all this raise accomplishes is folding hand that you want to call and building a bigger pot for hands that beat yours.

[belloc]

[ QUOTE ]
are you raising to get rid of a better hand? because that won't happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here was my rationale: I had been there for about 3 hours at this point, and I really hadn't gotten out of line yet, nothing but pretty standard play. I just didn't have very many occasions to do anything that might look tricky to the other players.

A few hands before this, I had 88 in a big pot with 5 players. After flopping one overcard, betting and being raised, I turned a third 8. I knew the turn bet was coming from my left, and the board wasn't draw heavy, so I checkraised with my set, trapping two of the three between me and the bettor, and taking down a huge pot. So the players had just seen me make this same play with the goods.

All that added up to me having an image of playing very straightforward: big bet street raises with the nuts, folding worse hands, etc. So I thought I might be able to take advantage of that here.

Finally, I was too tied to my read of Falk having AK. I thought that there was some chance that if I checkraised here again (like the 88 hand) with the turn bettor on my left, he wouldn't think I was stealing from *two* players, and would give me credit for the flush, and maybe lay it down (in retrospect, wishful thinking to be sure). And even if he didn't lay it down, I'd have 9 wins to the second nuts. I was sure I was ahead of GG, so his hand didn't concern me, and I knew he was calling anyway.

My mistake here obviously was putting too much probability on him folding AK to my checkraise (and too confidently putting him on AK to begin with). When he just called the flop, I figured for a second that he might just have AQs, or JJ/TT, or might be slowplaying KK, but I put those hands out of my mind too quickly.

However, if he *had* been a supernitty guy that was consistently folding to turn raises, there would (theoretically) *some* probability of getting him to fold a hand like AK here that would make this semibluff profitable, right?