Stars $16 - Am I beat here?

[Galilee]

It wasn't until the turn that I realised that I might actually have to play this hand ...

HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL VII (100/200)

Table '15369569 1' Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: SRC44 (4265 in chips)
Seat 4: SHAWshank2 (4095 in chips)
Seat 7: esfitz09 (3195 in chips)
Seat 8: Galilee (1945 in chips)
SRC44: posts the ante 25
SHAWshank2: posts the ante 25
esfitz09: posts the ante 25
Galilee: posts the ante 25
esfitz09: posts small blind 100
Galilee: posts big blind 200

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Galilee [8s Qc]
SRC44: calls 200
SHAWshank2: calls 200
esfitz09: folds
Galilee: checks

*** FLOP *** [8d 3c Js] Pot: 800
Galilee: checks
SRC44: checks
SHAWshank2: checks

*** TURN *** [8d 3c Js] [8c]
Galilee: bets 600
SRC44: folds
SRC44 is sitting out
SHAWshank2: calls 600

*** RIVER *** [8d 3c Js 8c] [7c] Pot: 2000
Galilee: ????????

If I do bet, how much do I bet? (I have 1120 left) If he's going to call me down with, say, AJ, then should I go all-in? But if he called on a flush or straight draw and hit it, am I always going bust?

[Snarf]

You play around where I do...Thats like the worst card in the deck... It depends on the type of cards the villian plays...

If hes a good player willing to play 'creative hands' you have to decide if you're ahead more often than not here... If you think its a toss up ahead/behind there...then you pretty much have to CALL a bet by opponent. Seems like in my experience you still have the best hand more often than not there - though it sucks.

If villian is likely to bluff - Block bet it. If the villian is weak-tightish, only betting very good hands, you could check and hope for the cheap showdown.

Otherwise, bet the amount you're willing to call. Probably fold to a raise.

Tough to comment on hands w/out reads. Read heavy hand.

I move all in because anything else will show weakness and if he has a small flush or three of a kind with a higher kicker, you might be able to bluff him out. Even average players can sense weakness and fear in a check at this level and willraise you for your entire stack. I'm not saying this situation is good for you at all, but neither is having 1100 chips with 4 people left in a stars turbo. Bet it all and give yourself a chance to win this thing.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I move all in because anything else will show weakness and if he has a small flush or three of a kind with a higher kicker, you might be able to bluff him out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you effing joking???!?!!?!?

Check-call.

check call is reasonable, and I realize that the possibility of bluffing the opponent out is very slim but does check/calling make a big difference? If villain's hand is best he will bet an amount that is commiting almost all of our chips anyway. If villain's hand is worse he'll check and lose or fold to a bet. The stars 16's have a slim percentage of people (1-2% perhaps) that will not understand how to play against a small stack and will fold a weak flush.

Looking at this again I think maybe the check/fold is optimal.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
The stars 16's have a slim percentage of people (1-2% perhaps) that will not understand how to play against a small stack and will fold a weak flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

They also have a much MUCH higher percentage of people who will bet the river with crap.

You can think about folding this hand in high buyins. This is a clear check-call in the $16s IMO.

[ QUOTE ]
They also have a much MUCH higher percentage of people who will bet the river with crap.

You can think about folding this hand in high buyins. This is a clear check-call in the $16s IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm stupid You're smart
I was wrong You were right
You're the best I'm the worst
You're very good-looking I'm not very attractive

[cha59]

[ QUOTE ]


If I do bet, how much do I bet? (I have 1120 left) If he's going to call me down with, say, AJ, then should I go all-in? But if he called on a flush or straight draw and hit it, am I always going bust?

[/ QUOTE ]

No you arent always going to bust out. I agree with durron here. Check/call any bet. You will induce bluffs here sometimes and you'll see villian turn over a J often enough to make the call profitable if he bets.

If he does bet it might or might not be all in. Sometimes you'll see a small bet wanting a call from a made flush and sometimes that small bet will be a J or a bluff.

If you push I dont think many hands better than yours are folding and I doubt many worse hands would call a push. Let him bet it and get more chips out of him if your hand is better.

[Roland32]

This has to be the most obvious check call situation possible. The whole idea of pushing not to show weakness is the most counter intuitive event I have ever seen. I have a good hand so I want to appear strong so I am not bluffed? If he has you beat he has you beat, pay him off. The best part is if he really does have a flush, alot of these players will stupidly bet a less amount because they are afraid you wont call. Like I said check and call.

I check/call here. A lot of players will take your check as weakness and bluff/value bet here with all sorts of junk.

[Galilee]

[ QUOTE ]
This has to be the most obvious check call situation possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for all the replies. As it happens I went all in and got called by the flush (Kc6c) - bugger.

I cosidered a check-call briefly, but ruled it out thinking that calling anything other than a minimum bet would leave me hopelessly short-stacked, if not all-in anyway.

I didn't even think about giving him the chance to bluff ... but of course, it seems so obvious now!

[jb9]

Interesting hand/discussion -- I have 2 questions:

1. Does anyone check/fold on the river if put all in? I assume not, but just wondering (maybe if your opponent is tight/passive).

2. Does anyone go all in on the turn rather than bet 3/4 pot? I would have seriously considered it...

[Galilee]

[ QUOTE ]
2. Does anyone go all in on the turn rather than bet 3/4 pot? I would have seriously considered it...

[/ QUOTE ]

This would probably have been a safer option - you're less likely to get called by draws. But a three-quarter-pot bet still denies the other guy odds for a flush, so, in a cash game at least, you'd welcome the call (assuming you're confident of how to play it if a club falls!)

But since this is the bubble of a SnG you might be right. After all, do you really want him to call for 600, even if it is a mistake. It's probably -EV for both of us. Someone else will have to confirm this, but I'm guessing the real winners are the two guys not involved in the hand.

So yeah, maybe all-in on the turn.

[jb9]

[ QUOTE ]
But a three-quarter-pot bet still denies the other guy odds for a flush, so, in a cash game at least, you'd welcome the call (assuming you're confident of how to play it if a club falls!)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes -- this is what was bugging me (although I didn't quite realize it til I read your response).

If you will always check/call all in on the river when the straight/flush draws hit, then even though pot odds are bad for draws (600 to win 1400) the implied odds are not so bad (600 to win 2500 plus eliminate an opponent, make the money, and increase chip lead over other 2 players).

I would find it to be real hard to fold the flush or OESD draws for 600 if I were the big stack there. If I miss on the river, I still have 3000+ chips and am in decent shape. If I hit on the river, I'm in great shape.

Unless you can check/fold on the river when the flush/straight cards hit, I'm not sure the 3/4 pot bet works here in the long run. I think going all in on the turn is best.