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View Full Version : Busted on the bubble - set over set


Gamblor
06-29-2003, 12:27 PM
2 table SnG tourney on stars.
I am in 3rd place, relevant stack is same size as mine.

5 left, I wake up on the button with 55.
CO raises 3xBB, I flat call.

Flop comes K5T rainbow, sweet.
UTG bets 1/4 of his stack, I move in and he flips over KK and I'm done.

Comments? Esp. regarding my pre-flop play - is this a good decision? should I have come over the top (which obviously would have not happened had I known his cards).

Thanks,
Gamblor

Rickfish
06-29-2003, 12:45 PM
The simple answer is that you should fold small pairs to a raise. The more complicated answer requires us to know what the stack sizes were and whether the implied odds of flopping a set justify a call. the trouble is that once in a blue moon you both flop a set and then you are done for.

curtains
06-30-2003, 03:17 AM
To properly answer the question we need to know what the blinds were at the time and what the stack sizes were.

Jon Matthews
06-30-2003, 09:47 AM
I would have limped with 55 on the button on the bubble but mucked for a raise. Either that or raised all in to hopefully get a call by overcards but much more likely the former just because of the money.

If played to the flop then I would have no problem going all in, set over set is too unlikely to be worrying about.

fnurt
06-30-2003, 10:18 AM
I agree that there's no way you can worry about set over set.

Whether you should call pre-flop depends on how deep the money is. You have to figure there's a good chance you'll win his whole stack if you flop a set against his big hand, but is his stack big enough to compensate you for all the times you don't flop a set and have to fold? That's the calculation you have to do.

Rickfish
06-30-2003, 01:12 PM
Well you should worry about set over set a little bit just the same as you should worry a bit about other ways of losing if you flop a set.

The odds of flopping another 5 is 12% or 7.33 to 1. So you want at least those implied odds. But there are two things that go wrong even when you get your flop. Say he has KK and the flop is A-9-5. Now he will not pay you off. Say the flop is J-8-5 now he does pay you off but about 9% of the time he will hit a King on the turn or river. Finally he may miss the flop, e.g. he as AK and the flop is J-8-5. Given all these riders you must look for implied odds that far exceed the basic odds of hitting a 5. Anyone got an opinion on what the minimum implied odds should be? I would guess that 20-1 would be favourable.

The counter argument is that the hands where he has a problem on the flop and you have trips, e.g. KK and A85 or AK and J85 you can turn to your advantage when you haven't, e.g. KK and A82 or AK & J82 but you will need to read these well as reverse the two flops and you are beaten.

Rickfish
07-01-2003, 05:56 AM
I was playing a couple of tables of $.5-$1 Holdem last night, one PL & one NL. I decided to fold less with the little pairs and try to get my implied odds. I was calling with 10-1 or better (mostly better). The strange thing was I made trips almost every time in a half hour period.
1st. I made trip 5s - lost to a successful flush draw.
2nd. I made trip 6s - lost to a successful straight draw.
3rd. I made trip 2s - lost to set of tens - yes we both flopped the set.

Then I raised with QQ made top set but after checking it once no-one called on the turn.

Four lots of trips in a short time - lots of chips lost! What happened to my implied odds?