AA river decision

[lil feller]

BB is solid (17/10/2.0)
SB is l/p (38/6/1.0)
MP1 is a goofball (33/18/1.4)
MP2 is solid (17/10/1.8)but knows that MP1 is a goofball and has adjusted his PF range.

My image is pretty nitty, mostly due to being extremely card dead.
Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (15 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls.

River: (18.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 21.50 BB

I'm sure i'm gonna get ripped for not capping, but I thought I had a good chance to get somebody else to do it, and I didn't feel like flipping my hand over just yet...

comments on all streets appreciated, especially the river

thanks,

lf

EDIT cuz I messed up the stats.

[SoSo]

looks like u got punished for not capping pf and the flop.

[charlieD]

i don't like not capping preflop. i like calling the flop 3 bet and raising the turn.

i think you'll find the bb has jacks or maybe tens and mp1(goofball) might have outdrawn you with his pair or 8's but is more likely value betting something goofy.

i'm just calling this river because you should draw an overcall from bb while not leaving yourself open to a reraise when goofball has you beat

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
looks like u got punished for not capping pf and the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for being insightful. No, really, I love it when people chime in with such well thought out responses, its great.

I can understand the argument for capping PF, I honestly thought somebody else would.

On the flop, however, if I cap I get checked to on the turn, and if I get c/r its by the BB, probably forcing out the goofball. By calling the flop I get $45 from both of them on the flop, and a guaranteed $60 on the turn for a total of $105 per player, or 210. If I cap I get $60 on the flop, and $30 on the turn (possibly from only one player, if goofball has overcards, which seems likely given the action until the river) which puts only $150 in the pot, costing me 2BB.

Thanks again for really digging into the situation and looking at it from all angles. Next time you post, try including the "why" with your "what". Its no wonder some of the more experienced posters get irritated by stuff like that.

lf

[sfer]

I think it's fine except preflop where you really want to discourage MP2 from isolating light so you can sneak into pots behind the donk.

I like all streets post flop, including the river, nh. As Dave pointed out you want to discourage MP2 from isolating the donkey pf and capping when you've got it will set him up for later when you don't.

[steveyz]

Raise the river and I don't think it's close.

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the river and I don't think it's close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats interesting. I felt the BB had some smaller overpair, and might not call 2 bets cold. The donk from the goofball certainly looked like a hand that wanted to ensure the river didn't get check through. Could be be any 2, 99 or 88.

Do you think the of forcing out the guy I know I have beat and potentially getting 3bet by the guy that I can't put on a hand is the best move. I get two bets for sure by calling (one from each) if i'm ahead and loose 1 if goofball has a monster. If I raise the BB almost definately folds (my image is strong, if that matters), so I get 2 if i'm ahead (both from the goofball) and lose 3 if behind. Am I missing something that makes a raise the better play?

thanks,

lf

[Clarkmeister]

I like it.

[lil feller]

Thanks to all that replied.

MP2 showed JJ, BB had QQ and MHIG.

more comments welcome.

thanks,

lf

[steveyz]

I think given this board, it would be hard for BB to laydown a smaller overpair. I'd given him a chance to call. I think chances that the goofball has you beat are extremely slim. I think if you raise, you will win 2 BBs most of the time and 4 BBs some of the times, and very very occasionally lose an extra 2 BBs. (i'm discounting those times where the goofball you 3-bets you on the river with a worse hand)

If you don't raise, you are guaranteeing only winning 2 BBs. So really, I guess it depends on your evaluation of the chances of BB calling with a smaller overpair vs chances of goofball having a better hand as well was chances of goofball folding to a river raise.

I don't know I guess my inclination that that people often discount the chance of BB calling 2 cold in a spot like this. Not to be results oriented here, but do you think if you were BB you could fold QQ to a river raise?

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
but do you think if you were BB you could fold QQ to a river raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think so. The PF cold call of 3 bets screams a PP, who knows how big. He's certainly representing a big pair or a 2 (unlikely given his PF stats). After my QQ gets raised on the turn, then a new aggressor (who we both know to be a goofball) fires and the TAG who called 3 cold pre flop, jammed the flop and the turn raises, i'd be certain enough that QQ is no good, especially when possibly facing a 3 bet from the goofball, who may very well have a strangely played 99 or 2x, or a lucky 88.

If I were to find a fold in this spot with QQ, would it be a mistake?

lf

I'd raise the river. I doubt if anyone's put you one AA since you failed to raise preflop, which I feel was a mistake. The person to fear the most is the BB--he might be playing A2s, but he has failed to represent that, if in fact this is his holding. No need to be timid at this point. Raise the river.

[lil feller]

not capping preflop certainly is questionable, and isn't something i'd do often. I knew the 3better might be light, however, and was trying to conceal my hand a little bit. I really did think the goofball would cap.

I'm wondering if you skipped over the player descriptions, there's no way the BB has a 2. the goofball might, but not the BB.

I still think that calling the river is better. If the BB has QQ-TT, which is the range I put him on, I think he finds a fold here and I expose myself to getting 3bet by the goofball. If i'm sure he'll call the river with those hands, then a raise is better, but given his style and my image, I thought he'd fold.

thanks for the reply,

lf

[steveyz]

BB has given you no indication that he has anything better than perhaps a medium pocket pair, so I don't see how he can fold when you may be raising the river with JJ/TT.

If I were BB and I had capped pf, which I would do frequently here (since he won't be able to ascertain that much information from a goofball cap anyways), I would be more apt to lay down. But since I've underrepresented my hand, I'd more more apt to see a showdown. It would be a difficult river call, but I think I'd probably call QQ here, muck TT, with JJ being a tough decision but leaning towards a fold. I wouldn't be worried at all about goofball's hand.

Just like you should not play poker drunk, you should not post poker tips drunk either /images/graemlins/crazy.gif that being said:

Assumptions on the river:
You hand is always best.
You will always be called by the river better if you raise.
You will never be called by the BB if you raise.
The BB will always overcall if you do not raise.

Analysis:
If all these points were true then it would not matter which action you take, you will win 2 bets either way.

Attacking the Assumptions:
Based on the betting I'd say your hand is best over 90% of the time. Say 10% of the time the someone has you beat. 100% of the time they are going to reraise your raise. You call the reraise 100% of the time. Now you will lose 3 bets 10% of the time vs. losing 1 bet 10% of the time by calling.

The river better is quite likely to pay off your raise; he's a 'goofball'. Let's just say that you'll win 2 bets every time your hand is best if you raise (90% of the time).

Sometimes the BB will overcall with a worse hand. Sometimes he will have you beaten and is going for a check-raise (which I feel is next to never given the player description and betting). Both situations are an almost never--cancel them out.

The BB will always overcall. I think this assumption is a bit too optimistic; maybe he'll call 75% of the time if he holds TT-KK. Of course he's more inclined to call with the larger pairs.

Based on this I'd say that you'll win more in the long run by raising; mostly due to the fact that the boso will call your raise and the BB will not overcall every time. Also the threat of being beat is small; you can even fold to a 3 bet if you strongly feel you are beaten. If it is 3 bet by the boso then I'd probably pay it off--I wouldn't want that hand to end up some poker book being titled as the "best bluff ever". The pot's huge and worth paying off if for nothing else, table image.

You've gotta be wondering where the heck the river bet is coming from. How did that card help this clown? I wouldn't worry about it; for all we know he's just made 2 pr with 89s I wouldn't let this Sammy's bet deter me from getting the most value possible from my likely best hand.

I hope this covers the post a bit better than the original I submitted.