Aces up in trouble

[Roland]

This hand is similar to the one SimonAllan posted. I’m not happy with the way I played it.
Seat 1 seemed solid, not particularly aggressive. I was telling myself there were 6 ways he could have KK and only one way he could be rolled - but I doubted he would play KK this way all along.
On 6th he told me he was rolled. I believed him, but couldn’t fold.


7 Card Stud High ($2/$4), Ante $0.25, Bring-In $1 (converter (http://j.1asphost.com/greenage))

3rd Street - (0.88 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/club.gif___raises
Seat 2: xx xx 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif___brings-in___folds
Seat 3: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/club.gif___completes___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds
Seat 6: xx xx A/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx T/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds

4th Street - (10.38 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif___raises
Seat 3: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif___bets___calls
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif___calls___calls

5th Street - (8.19 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___raises
Seat 3: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif___bets___calls

6th Street - (12.19 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___bets
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif___checks___calls

River - (14.19 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif xx___bets
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif___checks___calls

Total pot: (16.19 BB)

[Michael Emery]

If he was rolled then I would have lost a few more bets then you did, Roland. So nice job, I guess. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Mike Emery

[frappeboy]

You shouldn't get upset over hands like this, if anything I agree with Mike I probably would have lost a little more than you did.

When you get dealt aces and your opponent gets dealt roll ups, its not your fault, its just a cold deck. You are gonna lose a lot of money (or win a lot if you happen to suck out), and there is nothing you can do about it.

You can't fold 3rd or 4th street, on 5th street I think you finally can be around 95% sure that your opponent is rolled up. The problem is there is so much in the pot that even with 3 outs you aren't making a big mistake by calling him down. And there is still a small chance he is just screwing around.

The river you might be able to get away from, but calling is fine.

Your mistake in this hand was getting dealt a pair of aces when your opponent got dealt rolled up. You need to stop doing that...

Is check/calling fifth a possibility? I don't think that I'd be as aggressive as villain with KK in the hole. When you raise the queen, it strongly suggests that you have kings, aces or are rolled yourself, so I would probably play kings quite defensively here. The only other option is to develop your sucking out skills like I did...

While it would not have changed anything had he been orlled up, i still would have raised on third when the queen bet. Were you afraid of the board? Were you trying to lure the other player in? Disguise your hand? You know well enough that at this pointi n the hand you need to push your aces. Like I said, if he was rolled it did not matter, but most of the time he wont be rolled.

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]


You can't fold 3rd or 4th street, on 5th street I think you finally can be around 95% sure that your opponent is rolled up. The problem is there is so much in the pot that even with 3 outs you aren't making a big mistake by calling him down. And there is still a small chance he is just screwing around.



[/ QUOTE ]

Frappe, I'd just like to say that you can't really count the deuce's as full outs, because of those times you get there, your opponent could fill to a bigger boat.

Roland, I think the problem here is that your opponent may put you on jacks. I think that makes this into a call.

Mike Emery, nice to have you back.

[MRBAA]

I agree in general, but Barry Greenstein says something very interesting. Basically, his thought is that probabilities matter alot less than the information your opponent provides by his betting. This is especially true in no limit, but even in limit when an opponent is playing as if rolled, it's not unreasonable to give him credit for that hand, even though it's improbable. Now, in limit this doesn't mean you can fold most times. But it does mean you can give less action than you otherwise would with aces.

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree in general, but Barry Greenstein says something very interesting. Basically, his thought is that probabilities matter alot less than the information your opponent provides by his betting. This is especially true in no limit, but even in limit when an opponent is playing as if rolled, it's not unreasonable to give him credit for that hand, even though it's improbable. Now, in limit this doesn't mean you can fold most times. But it does mean you can give less action than you otherwise would with aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is that it is rare for any given opponent to be rolled on any given hand. But, you have 7 opponents on each hand, and over 10 or 11 hands, its not rare to see someone rolled up.

Now, we alll know that the chances of being rolled up are 1/425.. But, what are those chances if our opponent raises with a 3 door card? It changes. Its conditional probability that we use throughout the course of a hand. If you think the chances of someone being rolled up are 1/425 after he comes over the top of aces a couple of times, you'd need to stop playing poker.