$25 NL Loser - PTStats Analysis, Trying to find out why...

I love poker, I really do, especially no limit hold 'em. I play online, I play a home game with friends, it's great fun. But, of course, I love winning. And I don't win. Without bonuses, I would be down a bit but...luckily...bonuses exist. :P I've kept myself to the lowest NL tables of which I table select based on highest average pot size and look out for tables with players who see way too many flops.

All I've read is Doyle's Super System, but in addition to that, I read several online articles and I browse the no-limit forum daily.

For additional information, I play about 20 hours each week in a friendly "home game". At this game, I'm break-even. The table is full of LAGs (even Maniacs), so while they constantly berate me (with jest) as "Weak Tight" and constantly tease me "Don't fold the best hand!" they're the crazies, desperation bluffing the river and losing to a caller who calls with ace high...They're the crazy ones, I tell you! /images/graemlins/blush.gif (and yet...I can't seem to win at this game. Why the hell can't I? Maybe I've been bluffed off too many hands.)

And yet...it's to my disappointment that I have to present the following chart. Yeah, I know there's a little something called "variance", and I planned on sticking it out until 10k hands before posting, but...there's a point where I have to look at the big picture and proclaim "Wow, this isn't variance. I'm awful."



http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Luckay/losingchart.jpg

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Luckay/losingstats1.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Luckay/losingstats2.jpg

Is there any glaring error in any of my stats?
In addition, I have a couple of specific hands of which I've definitely lost big which I'll post up in the Small Stakes NL forum. But this seems to be the place to start.

[pzhon]

You've lost 10 BB/100, but after only 3400 hands, your 95% confidence interval is something like -10+-16 BB/100. It's likely that something is wrong, as it is rare for a solid winner to lose that much over 3400 hands, but it is possible that you are a marginal winner.

It doesn't look like you are defending the blinds too much. In fact, you might want to defend the blinds a little bit more later, but that isn't a big deal now since your opponents are so passive that they rarely try to attack the blinds, and when they do, they have better hands than they should.

You might want to raise more frequently preflop. That's a good way to punish loose players limping in front of you: Raise and then almost always make a continuation bet the flop. Someone who is playing J5s or 97o will almost always hate the flop. If you get called on the flop, shut down with your weaker hands, and fire again on the turn with your better hands and big draws.

Your aggression factor is high. I think the reason is not that you are betting and raising so much, but that you are not calling frequently enough, particularly against the nuisance minimum bets people often make in NL 25. Those bets often mean a low pair or a draw as weak as a gutshot or missed overcards.

PokerTracker does not yet report your bet sizes. Are you getting enough value with your good hands? Are you generating enough folding equity with your bluffs and semi-bluffs? By default, you should bet in proportion to the pot. On the flop, it is typically right to bet 1/2 pot to the full pot. On the turn and river, it is usually right to bet a little less, but usually you should bet at least 1/3 of the size of the pot if you bet at all.

Are you losing too many large pots? If so, you might want to try buying in for less, and stop paying off so frequently when draws hit or you only have one pair.