How big are your swings?

Throughout October and the beginning of November, I'd been doing pretty well on Pokerroom. I had played mostly .5/1 and 1/2 with the occasional 2/4 thrown in. I had mostly winning days, quite a few doubling up at the table (usually $50 on the table and leaving at $100).

Since the second week of November, I've been consistently running cold. Catching very few hands pre-flop, and the ones I have caught have rarely held up. Tonight I played/was dealt 60 hands without winning one pot. I caught a few hands after so I won back some money. I remained tight and played with discipline, but this seems to be a pattern since the second week of November.

Does everyone go on rushes this vast? I just started using pokertracker and have been reevaluating my hands, but haven't seen anything I would change about my playing. I've been paying attention to position and not playing as many hands in the SB and BB against raises (which was losing me considerable money according to PT).

[NobodysFreak]

You shouldn't think of these things in the short term. How many hands have you played in total? Do you have pokertracker? If not, I suggest you get it immediately.

[irishpint]

huge

[Webster]

Try having it for a month. It happens. I have gone 218 hands with out a win over 3 big bets. A streak of -200 Big bets while uncommon is certainly not abnormal. Just keep looking at your hand histories.

Normally you will see hands that you lost EVEN if the other guy had his cards face up.

Party is a lot like this for me. I'll be untouchable for a week and then BAM - can't win a hand.

once you play a while streaks become 2nd nature, just a way of life and more of a set back not something to get concerned over.

[numeri]

Here's a sample of 11 consecutive sessions: (in BB)

1) +35
2) -2
3) +42
4) -4
5) +6
6) +22
7) +19
8) -29
9) -36
10) -18
11) +55
net = +90

So yes, variance happens.

My swings are pretty big, especially now I've joined Party and am playing $0.50/1 and $1/2 at the Beginner tables. Up and down like a yoyo thanks to the suckouts versus the huge pots where people call you down with anything. Still, more up than down (at $0.50/1 I'm over 3BB/100 over 4,900 hands - was up at 18BB/100 at one point after 700 hands (woo!) then down to about 1BB/100 after a couple of thousand (with accompanied min-hissyfit), to give you an idea).

So yeah, variance is massive for me at the moment (and that's at full table as well).

In the spirit of the last post, the last 10 tables I played at ($0.50/1, in BB):

1) +19
2) -8
3) +11
4) -3
5) +18
6) -12
7) +19
8) +15
9) +10
10) +2

Net: +70BB (and that's pretty smooth compared to some swings)

If only that was at a meaningful level, eh? Still, better making money than losing it.



Oh, and my biggest downswing I've had has been nearly 200BB at $1/2, to give you an idea. It certainly didn't feel like I was playing bad poker either (and checking PT suggested I did little wrong the majority of the time).

Since this seems like a fun thing to post, my last 10 sessions in bb's:

+8
-25
-1
+12
-26
-11
-15
+0.75
+7
-1

Always has to hurt me after I run good for a few weeks. Plus I haven't seen AA in close to 1000 hands. It's like some bizarro world.

[milesdyson]

my last 10 1/2 6max sessions, starting with most recent (no kidding):

1. -51
2. -25
3. +38
4. -12
5. -1
6. -1
7. -5
8. +6
9. -1
10. +9

[numeri]

So is everybody playing shorter sessions than I am, or is it because I play 6-max? And by session, I mean the time I'm at the computer playing.

FWIW, those sessions range from 1/2 hour and ~90 hands (4) to almost 4 hours and ~600 hands (10). I play 2 tables of 1/2 6-max.

[numeri]

Just for fun, here's my stab at 2/4:

1) -18
2) -10
3) +12
4) -20
5) -5
6) -16
7) -22
8) I decide that I suck at poker.

net: -79

Wow. I just realized that I didn't even take a 100BB shot. What a wuss! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[milesdyson]

the crazy thing is that i didn't even really tilt much today (as i lost the 75 big bets in an hour or two). it was really just like, "wait... wow, this is pretty amazing." tilt probably caused ~10 of those big bets, which is good for me during these kind of sessions.

i actually feel like i succeeded, since i stayed at the table where i had lost ~60 bb because i knew it was a +EV situation with an 80/80/8 guy sitting two to my right. i came back up another ~15 bb until losing another 5 or 6 big bets on another flopped top pair vs. flopped set.

the last two saturdays i've played i've averaged -84 big bets per day.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
Just for fun, here's my stab at 2/4:

1) -18
2) -10
3) +12
4) -20
5) -5
6) -16
7) -22
8) I decide that I suck at poker.

net: -79

Wow. I just realized that I didn't even take a 100BB shot. What a wuss! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a good feeling you made the right decison

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a good feeling you made the right decison

[/ QUOTE ]
Oh, I was clearly overmatched. I had no idea how to deal with the added aggression. (This was on Absolute.) That's what I've been focusing on lately. I'm still struggling with it, though one of the big problems at 2/4 was a real inability to get away from the $$$. You'd think after starting in 0.02/0.04, one more step up wouldn't be a big deal! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

I'll be back. I'm plumping up the roll and my confidence again for now. I only had 5k hands at 1/2 6-max after 3k hands at 0.5/1 when I took the shot at 2/4. I realized I should slow down.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm plumping up the roll and my confidence again for now. I only had 5k hands at 1/2 6-max after 3k hands at 0.5/1 when I took the shot at 2/4. I realized I should slow down.



[/ QUOTE ]

a. bonus whoring is great
b. thats faster than I moved, and I was pretty quick

7k .5/1
12k 1/2
6k 2/4
16k 3/6 though I have always played a fair amount of hands at lower limits after the intial jump .. so I haven't really been a 1limit player since 1/2

[checkmate36]

[ QUOTE ]

once you play a while streaks become 2nd nature, just a way of life and more of a set back not something to get concerned over.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im slowly starting to find this out. With only 14k hands in my PT the streaks are hard for me at this point. This post has been a big help in showing me Im not alone. Here are my numbers in the spirit of the post...

-4
+24 /images/graemlins/smile.gif
+10.75
-10.5
+8.75
-12
-12
-22
+6
+0
<11> BB I need more happy face sessions /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I recently bought PokerTreacker, ironicly, it seems that is when I noticed the losing streak. Here are the basics though.

.5/1 3180 hands

Last 10
-15
-25
+3
-89
+2
+7
-22
+34
-37
+31
Overall after 95 sessions +6/100

1/2 3808 hands
LAst 10
-15
-15
-8
+6
+.04
-10
+4
-63
-48
+33
Overall -.08/100

And for the fun factor
2/4 94 hands
+256
-24
-23


I think I'm just nervous about losing the bankroll. I had deposited $30 to start, and built it to $300 (withdrew a twice, once to pay for PT, another to pay for chips). I was playing mostly 1/2 until I got down to $150, then dropped to .5/1 to build it back up. Now hovering around $100. I think the suck outs are getting to me as well.

Thanks for the input guys.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
a. bonus whoring is great
b. thats faster than I moved, and I was pretty quick

7k .5/1
12k 1/2
6k 2/4
16k 3/6 though I have always played a fair amount of hands at lower limits after the intial jump .. so I haven't really been a 1limit player since 1/2

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, Absolute may be a bit rougher than other sites, but the bonuses there are as good as (or better than) r*keb*ck. I think that's how I got a bit ahead of myself. The roll grew faster than my ability.

I had plenty of hands at full ring, BTW. Those (3k 0.5/1, 5k 1/2) were just 6-max. I had about 10k 0.5/1 full ring, and another 25k in the nanos.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'm just nervous about losing the bankroll. I had deposited $30 to start, and built it to $300 (withdrew a twice, once to pay for PT, another to pay for chips). I was playing mostly 1/2 until I got down to $150, then dropped to .5/1 to build it back up. Now hovering around $100. I think the suck outs are getting to me as well.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're under-rolled for your level. The general guideline is 300 BB (big bets) at your current level. You might be trying to move up too fast. Take your time. Try to play 10k hands at 0.5/1 first and go from there.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I'm just nervous about losing the bankroll. I had deposited $30 to start, and built it to $300 (withdrew a twice, once to pay for PT, another to pay for chips). I was playing mostly 1/2 until I got down to $150, then dropped to .5/1 to build it back up. Now hovering around $100. I think the suck outs are getting to me as well.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're under-rolled for your level. The general guideline is 300 BB (big bets) at your current level. You might be trying to move up too fast. Take your time. Try to play 10k hands at 0.5/1 first and go from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I realize that now. I had moved up and couldn't believe that everyone was saying 300BB's. I had been doing fine with significantly less. Now the focus is on discipline and going for 10,000.

Thanks.

[Vote4Pedro]

http://www.langhalegardens.co.uk/shop/product%20pictures/outdoor_toys/gibbon_swing.jpg

[POKhER]

+1
+2.75
-9
+5
+2
+12
-0.20
+1.65
-.40
+1.20
+1.50

1/2 - Fun /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[adsman]

Nice original thread this one. These are my last ten sessions at absolute 2/4 6max. I've been running good.

+13
+0.5
+7
+39
-4.5
-1
-8.5
+12
+9
-20

For a +46.5 total. Crazy aggression mixed with crazy passivity. Weird.

[numeri]

Very nice, ads.

I think my 2/4 list is the bizarro version of yours. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[adsman]

[ QUOTE ]
Very nice, ads.

I think my 2/4 list is the bizarro version of yours. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Were you playing 6max or full ring?

[benkath1]

[ QUOTE ]
http://www.langhalegardens.co.uk/shop/product%20pictures/outdoor_toys/gibbon_swing.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

nh

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Very nice, ads.

I think my 2/4 list is the bizarro version of yours. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Were you playing 6max or full ring?

[/ QUOTE ]
Exclusively 6-max now.

[adsman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Very nice, ads.

I think my 2/4 list is the bizarro version of yours. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Were you playing 6max or full ring?

[/ QUOTE ]
Exclusively 6-max now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've just started on stars. It is so passive compared to absolute. Well worth a look.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
I've just started on stars. It is so passive compared to absolute. Well worth a look.

[/ QUOTE ]
Actually, that was my next plan. I had an old account there, with my name as part of it. (?!) I asked nicely and they let me create a new account. I plan on heading over some time in the near future. I'd like to have a big enough roll where I can split it - the bonuses on Absolute are just too plentiful to pass up.

the guy who said he hadnt have pocket aces for 1000 hands -- i think its very unlikely.

As I recall correct, you get AA every 220 hands. Still I dont know th standard deviation, suppose its 220, it means that chance not to get AA during 1000 hands is like 0.0001%.

Who can complement me?

[Vote4Pedro]

I've gone well over 1K hands w/o getting aces...IIRC, bottomset(or someone else) had a run of almost 2K hands sometime over summer...[censored] happens

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
Who can complement me?

[/ QUOTE ]

OHHHH ME

Your hair looks lovely today /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
the guy who said he hadnt have pocket aces for 1000 hands -- i think its very unlikely.

As I recall correct, you get AA every 220 hands. Still I dont know th standard deviation, suppose its 220, it means that chance not to get AA during 1000 hands is like 0.0001%.

Who can complement me?

[/ QUOTE ]
P(AA) = 6/C(52,2) = 6/1326

This is a binomial distribution, with n=1000 and p=6/1326. The mean of the binomial distribution is np = 4.5, with a standard deviation of sqrt(np(1-p)) = 2.122. The probability of exactly zero AA in 1000 trials is:

P(0) = C(1000,0)*(6/1326)^0*(1-6/1326)^1000 = 0.010725

This will happen about once every 100 times. So if there are 100 poker players, and they all play 1000 hands, one will not get AA at all during those 1000 hands.

Unlikely - yes. Impossible - absolutely not.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Who can complement me?

[/ QUOTE ]

OHHHH ME

Your hair looks lovely today /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
compliment =/ complement

[nomadtla]

mathmatically if you've played more then 220,000 hands then this has happened to you once, but it's not unfeasable by any means.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
mathmatically if you've played more then 220,000 hands then this has happened to you once, but it's not unfeasable by any means.

[/ QUOTE ]
You only need 100,000 hands. (See my post above.)

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
mathmatically if you've played more then 220,000 hands then this has happened to you once, but it's not unfeasable by any means.

[/ QUOTE ]
You only need 100,000 hands. (See my post above.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok Mr. smarty pants /images/graemlins/smile.gif
In my defense I'm at work and can't do math like that on the fly. and why you gotta be an ass about my compliment I was just trying to tell the guy his hair looked nice /images/graemlins/smile.gif

By The way poker__n00b welcome to the boards and as a general rule we're usually this abrasive. Except Milesdyson he's a sweetheart /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok Mr. smarty pants /images/graemlins/smile.gif
In my defense I'm at work and can't do math like that on the fly. and why you gotta be an ass about my compliment I was just trying to tell the guy his hair looked nice /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, I'm just trying to sounds smart. Is it working? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[ QUOTE ]
By The way poker__n00b welcome to the boards and as a general rule we're usually this abrasive. Except Milesdyson he's a sweetheart /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
True. Maybe it's because it's morning. Wait, no... it's afternoon. That can't be it. Regardless, I'm usually not this rough. Miles, on the other hand... http://www.lotsofkids.com/forums/rwf-icons/lokboard/roll-eyes.gif

[nomadtla]

what in the world does that last smiley mean. I get two possible meanings
1 Miles thinks he's smarter and better that you --- true
2 Miles is a nerdy wus --- also true

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
1 Miles is smarter and better than you --- true

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP.

Oh, and I was trying to find a smiley with 'rolling eyes'. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
I've gone well over 1K hands w/o getting aces...IIRC, bottomset(or someone else) had a run of almost 2K hands sometime over summer...[censored] happens

[/ QUOTE ]

I had a 1k+ streak, don't remember the total length

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1 Miles is smarter and better than you --- true

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP.

Oh, and I was trying to find a smiley with 'rolling eyes'. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I allways picture him rolling his eyes with that big fro (I know last pic he posted he lost the fro, but it's still with him in spirit), just looking at other people post rolling his eyes and just saying "Ha silly mortals, I will have to find some clever way to tell them they are wrong."

[shadow29]

Here are my last few sessions. Seems pretty typical these days.

http://img312.imageshack.us/img312/1856/swings3ja.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
I allways picture him rolling his eyes with that big fro (I know last pic he posted he lost the fro, but it's still with him in spirit), just looking at other people post rolling his eyes and just saying "Ha silly mortals, I will have to find some clever way to tell them they are wrong."

[/ QUOTE ]
rofl that's exactly what i do

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I allways picture him rolling his eyes with that big fro (I know last pic he posted he lost the fro, but it's still with him in spirit), just looking at other people post rolling his eyes and just saying "Ha silly mortals, I will have to find some clever way to tell them they are wrong."

[/ QUOTE ]
rofl that's exactly what i do

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew it. Do you have a big throne with a big screen monitor in front of it where you just talk and it types and you do it all while playing 10 tables on the side withouteven really looking at them just hitting buttons on touch screens.

clearly I have spent to much time thinking about this.
I'm gonna go back to work now.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
clearly I have spent to much time thinking about this.

[/ QUOTE ]
clearly, but you are on the right track for the most part /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[benkath1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I allways picture him rolling his eyes with that big fro (I know last pic he posted he lost the fro, but it's still with him in spirit), just looking at other people post rolling his eyes and just saying "Ha silly mortals, I will have to find some clever way to tell them they are wrong."

[/ QUOTE ]
rofl that's exactly what i do

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew it. Do you have a big throne with a big screen monitor in front of it where you just talk and it types and you do it all while playing 10 tables on the side withouteven really looking at them just hitting buttons on touch screens.

clearly I have spent to much time thinking about this.
I'm gonna go back to work now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see miles sitting on his throne with one of those beer hats that holds 2 beers with the straw, miller high life in each, 8 tabling 1/2 6 max and ripping the heart out of newbie posters who can't seem to win with AA after 'slowplaying to build a big pot'.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[milesdyson]

more like under rolled, 2-tabling 1/2 6-max and losing 4 bb/100 over the last 5k hands. otherwise yeah /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
more like under rolled, 2-tabling 1/2 6-max and losing 4 bb/100 over the last 5k hands. otherwise yeah /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
That's not an insignifant amount, MD. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
more like under rolled, 2-tabling 1/2 6-max and losing 4 bb/100 over the last 5k hands. otherwise yeah /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You keep alluding to being under rolled/playing at really tiny limits. May I ask what happened to your roll?

[shadow29]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
more like under rolled, 2-tabling 1/2 6-max and losing 4 bb/100 over the last 5k hands. otherwise yeah /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You keep alluding to being under rolled/playing at really tiny limits. May I ask what happened to your roll?

[/ QUOTE ]

You assume it existed in the first place.

Maybe reading a book might help, miles.

Just a thought.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
more like under rolled, 2-tabling 1/2 6-max and losing 4 bb/100 over the last 5k hands. otherwise yeah /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You keep alluding to being under rolled/playing at really tiny limits. May I ask what happened to your roll?

[/ QUOTE ]
well the tiny limit stuff is all a joke, and i'm not actually under rolled for 1/2 (i have ~$1000 in teh roll). i have however been losing lately (i did exaggerate the winrate, as well). i am a compulsive liar.

my original bankroll is floating around europe in the form of euros spent on fine european beers, food, and cigarettes.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
my original bankroll is floating around europe in the form of euros spent on fine european beers, food, and cigarettes.

[/ QUOTE ]
NH, sir. Well played.

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
my original bankroll is floating around europe in the form of euros spent on fine european beers, food, and cigarettes.

[/ QUOTE ]

"It could be in other (countries) by now"
I'm sure I'm one of the few who get's this but I couldn't miss an opporutnity to throw out an Empire Records quote.

[POKhER]

dam, there was me thinking you was pwning 3/6 for 5bb/100.

You ruined the whole image miles, ruined it.

[ QUOTE ]

P(AA) = 6/C(52,2) = 6/1326

This is a binomial distribution, with n=1000 and p=6/1326. The mean of the binomial distribution is np = 4.5, with a standard deviation of sqrt(np(1-p)) = 2.122. The probability of exactly zero AA in 1000 trials is:

P(0) = C(1000,0)*(6/1326)^0*(1-6/1326)^1000 = 0.010725

This will happen about once every 100 times. So if there are 100 poker players, and they all play 1000 hands, one will not get AA at all during those 1000 hands.

Unlikely - yes. Impossible - absolutely not.

[/ QUOTE ]
I exaggerated when I said 1000 (well, I said close to 1000). Probably more like 700-800. But it's cool to see the math, thanks!

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
dam, there was me thinking you was pwning 3/6 for 5bb/100.

You ruined the whole image miles, ruined it.

[/ QUOTE ]
you can come watch me play on party right now (i have 3 tables). down about 40 bb so far, let's see how much more i can drop playing what i think is fairly decent poker. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

oh, party name is simply milesdyson if you so desire.

also: aim hugebabycarrot if you care to discuss a hand or something.

[POKhER]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
dam, there was me thinking you was pwning 3/6 for 5bb/100.

You ruined the whole image miles, ruined it.

[/ QUOTE ]
you can come watch me play on party right now (i have 3 tables). down about 40 bb so far, let's see how much more i can drop playing what i think is fairly decent poker. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

oh, party name is simply milesdyson if you so desire.

[/ QUOTE ]
Watching one of them bro, Seated with $81 so far.

There is this thing called Standard deviation (SD).
It is the ideal number for measurement of swings. It is calculated thus:

For all sessions = Sqrt(Sum(| average session - session |^2))

For the following sample it is:
+35 -20 +45
net= +60
average 60/3=20

SD = (35-20)^2+(-20+20)^2+(45-20)^2=Sqrt(15^2+25^2=225+625)=Sqrt(850)=29.15

If you use PT you will find it in the session details.

Mine is 18$/100Hands and 14,50$/h with a Multitablingratio of 3.

[POKhER]

$81>$51>$125>$120

Mile's "Roller coaster" @ 1 6max table ($1/2 stakes) tonight /images/graemlins/grin.gif

6max looks so fun!!!

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
$81>$51>$125>$120

Mile's "Roller coaster" @ 1 6max table ($1/2 stakes) tonight /images/graemlins/grin.gif

6max looks so fun!!!

[/ QUOTE ]
didn't mention this in the PMs, but at my other two tables, i went:

$100>$40>$92
and
$100>$50>$99

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
Throughout October and the beginning of November, I'd been doing pretty well on Pokerroom. Since the second week of November, I've been consistently running cold. Does everyone go on rushes this vast?

[/ QUOTE ]

By vast do you mean the last week since the second week of November or the month a half in Oct/Nov?

Either way, I got a kick out of your characterization of this experience as vast. LoL /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[kiemo]

What is this variance thing you speak of?

http://www.visi.com/~kiemo/pics/ugg_small.jpg

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
I exaggerated when I said 1000 (well, I said close to 1000). Probably more like 700-800. But it's cool to see the math, thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]
Still - it's an unlikely event, but I certainly believe it. As bottomset mentioned, even longer streaks can happen.