Great value bet or waste of chips?

[Ulysses]

Saw this today in a decent 15-30.

3 limpers. Hero raises on the button w/ JJ. Hero is a solid player. Blinds fold, limpers call.

Flop K27r

Checked to hero, who bets. All 3 limpers call.

Turn (K27)Tr

Check, Check. Limper now bets. Limper is a very loose poor player, but not a complete idiot. Hero considers for a moment and calls. Other 2 limpers fold.

River (K27T)5

Limper now checks. Hero bets.

What do you think of this bet?

[cero_z]

Hi Ulysses,
IMO Hero made an obviously correct value bet. The debatable play for me is not raising the turn. It's debatable because you may make more by calling and then betting or raising on the river, or the loose poor player may call a turn raise, which gives you a better shot at 3 bets. So definitely not a waste of chips, but too obvious to be great.

[haakee]

I like it. Do I know hero?

[jen]

I agree. I like raising the turn (might win it right there, won't give over-cards or single pairs a chance to catch up, make an open-ender straight draw pay, likely calling down anyway) and checking down the river unless a J hits.

[Rick Nebiolo]

Ulysses,

With this turn and river sequence a very loose poor playing limper easily could have:

1) a weak king and decided to bet the turn and check-call the river. I'd rate this possibility about a 40% chance.

2) the ten and decided to "bet the turn because I'm going to call anyway". The loose player calls the river of course. I'd rate this about a 30% chance.

3) picked a straight draw with a QJ on the turn and decided to bet hoping to take it down right there. Note that a very loose player with a queen high might call a river bet. I'd rate the straight draw a 20% chance and the VLPP calls with queen high on the river about half the time.

4) an underpair and decided to bet it (and probably call the river). I'd rate this at about 10%.

Based on these four possibilities I'd say this makes it a nice thin value bet. Even if I'm wrong in my assesment by a bit it can't be that bad a value bet in a "meta game" sense. A very loose player sees you are willing to make this bet and will pay off even more later in the game.

Regards,

Rick

[mike l.]

it's a good bet. limper may have just a T or 7. there is some chance that limper has a busted draw that he wont call with.

i think a raise on the turn is more favorable then a bet on the river. limper could easily have QJs or 98s that had a backdoor flush draw on the flop that he peeled one off with as bad players are prone to do in any size pot. i see even bad players semibluff on the turn, even if theyve never heard the term semibluff.

[mike l.]

"Note that a very loose player with a queen high might call a river bet."

i have no idea where youre coming from with this. ive never seen this and dont expect to any time soon. bad players will call with very little on the river like any pair even on scary boards, but they do not call with Q hoping to snap a bluff. that is something ive only seen very skilled players do (call w/ less than A high on the river).

[Rick Nebiolo]

Mike,

I said "might" ;-). You are probably right regarding a QJ calling but I've seen some semi-hopeless queen high calls in my day by less then experts.

One other possibility I overlooked is the opponent holding something like AJ of maybe AQ. Both these hands might call a river bet.

Regards,

Rick

[elysium]

hi ulysses
bad river bet. the limper busted out with JQ, unless of course he calls. but if he check-raises, he may have busted out, in which case the LP must fold the winner or call with the loser. never, ever bet in this situation. check it down.

[Philuva]

I think raising the turn is the best play as it gets the same number of bets in the pot and punishes draws. It might even get one of the initial limpers to fold a weak K by having to call 2 big bets cold.

FWIW, the first hand that popped into my head with the limpers bet on the turn was QJ, picking up the straight draw.

[bad beetz]

I think if the poor player had done something like make two pair he would have check-raised. When I raise before the flop, bet the flop, and it's pretty obvious I'm going to bet again, I get really suspicious when someone bets into me.

I think it means he picked up a draw or has a weak king. Maybe a ten.

this is a great situation to know how that particular player plays top pair/weak kicker on the flop.

I like the bet, but if he's going to do it, then I like a turn/raise/free showdown better.

[Lee Jones]

I agree with MikeL that a call from a Q-high is unlikely, but other than that I completely agree with Rick's analysis.

And if you're in a coin-toss situation about a value bet on the river, do it every time. As Rick noted, the meta-game implications are huge, swamping any tiny -EV that you might be suffering from the bet. And furthermore, we'll never be sure about whether that bet really is +EV or not, but we are sure that river-bet-bots make money.

Regards, Lee

[DJA]

What if limper has a K, you know like he told you when he bet the turn. I think a raise on the turn is a bad mistake. If I am checked to on the river, and I had called the turn, I would usually bet... but I would not raise the turn here.

Just My Thoughts,

[Boris]

Hero had a chance to use position and save a bet. Loose weak player has a king with poor kicker more than half the time.

[Diplomat]

Hi Ulysses,

I like the bet. Why would the poor limper not bet the river with a king or better? He was not raised on the turn... Maybe it's just the games I play in, but that would be a more common pattern for such a player with any king. (bet-the-turn-and-bet-the-river-if-nothing-scary-comes-off) It's pretty nice, because often I get to raise the river with a hand like KJ. /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

I don't know. I could be completely wrong. But I'd bet almost every time here. (I've become a river bet-bot too)

-Diplomat

[Diplomat]

E,

I find your response incomprehensible. Could you please explain your logic?

-Diplomat