Another 77 hand

[jason_t]

I'm new to this table. 18/12/2 limps UTG+2. LPP 51/7.2/.6 limps along in MP1. I overlimp in MP2 with 77. I did not feel the table conditions were right for a raise; the three players behind me were loose. The 20/4/1 SB completes and an unknown but seemingly okay BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif
SB bets, BB folds, UTG+2 raises, MP2 calls, I call, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif
SB checks, UTG+2 bets, MP2 calls, I raise

[McGahee]

I have the same stats as UTG+2 and on the rare occasion I can beat 7's in this spot I'm not calling a raise because I certainly don't have a K. MP1 has 2 cards, so this is standard I guess.

[bobhalford]

I like it. I myself would have 3-bet the flop to see how sb and UTG+2 react to it. Then see what they do on the turn. But the way you play it is probably better. You have a gutshot and top pair, and the flop looks like it's ripe with straight and flush draws. The problem is UTG+2 who may have two suited overcards like KTd. But he probably would have raised with any hand he might play with a K in it (18%/12%).I like the raise cause it may fold out the sb and give you a free showdown if none of the draws come through on the river.

[sweetjazz]

Phil Hellmuth say to raise and reraise preflop with your 7s. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

But, more seriously, I think I like your line, assuming that you are not putting another bet in UI. I think I like your line because UTG+2 may actually fold 88/99 here, assuming he would not open raise with them in EP. A flop raise might clear SB at best, and even that is not a given. So I think you have to chance it and see a turn, and then decide whether to raise based on the action.

The question is, what does UTG+2 have that we can beat or get to fold? I think 88/99 might fold here. (It should fold here, but that doesn't mean it will.) UTG+2 could have 55 or he could have Axs with x most likely a 6. I doubt he's betting anything less than a pair here when he continues on the turn.

I think you should this turn if your hand was 88 (negating your gutshot outs), but your weak draw plus the potential of ending up with the winning hand (either having it now or being second best to UTG+2's slightly higher pair that he will fold to your raise) is probably enough to making raising right. I think it is close though, and probably worth of some math, but I'm not very good at math anymore. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[PokerSparky]

I like it. Obviously with this draw heavy board your equity is going to to change significantly with the turn card. So raising the flop would probably just pump someone's draw.

I like raising the turn and taking a free showdown UI. There's a decent chance your hand is best, and if it's not you have some outs (probably around 4) to a strong hand.

Edit: Can we fold to a turn three bet?

[W. Deranged]

Yep.

[bugstud]

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I have the same stats as UTG+2 and on the rare occasion I can beat 7's in this spot I'm not calling a raise because I certainly don't have a K. MP1 has 2 cards, so this is standard I guess.

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you never have 66/44/33 here or a big flush draw ever?

[McGahee]

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I have the same stats as UTG+2 and on the rare occasion I can beat 7's in this spot I'm not calling a raise because I certainly don't have a K. MP1 has 2 cards, so this is standard I guess.

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you never have 66/44/33 here or a big flush draw ever?

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Yeah sometimes - all the more reason to raise.

[gh9801]

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I'm new to this table. 18/12/2 limps UTG+2. LPP 51/7.2/.6 limps along in MP1. I overlimp in MP2 with 77. I did not feel the table conditions were right for a raise; the three players behind me were loose. The 20/4/1 SB completes and an unknown but seemingly okay BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif
SB bets, BB folds, UTG+2 raises, MP2 calls, I call, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif
SB checks, UTG+2 bets, MP2 calls, I raise

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UTG+2 either has 55, a flush draw with a hand like KdJd or QdJd or more likely a set. With his stats he'd probably raise 88+ UTG and limp pocket pairs worse than 8s and some random big but not too great cards. Therefore I don't like this raise. I don't think this is for value against UTG+2's range and I don't think you can push him off his hand. On the bright side though you are probably beating SB and the LPP

[jason_t]

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Yep.

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What happened to the real W. Deranged?

[Sintax]

Fold to the flop raise. This is like the hand on pg 187 of SSH, but a lot worse for you. You are getting 5:1 on your call, but your equity is probably lower than 20%. In the books example the equity for an overpair was 25% and that was TT (much less overs then 77) and only against a single bet.

Pass.

[brettbrettr]

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Yep.

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What happened to the real W. Deranged?

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Umm, considering this looks like a free showdown/not putting any more money in this pot type hand, this is the real W. Deranged. This is, like, his favorite play ever.

[QTip]

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Fold to the flop raise. This is like the hand on pg 187 of SSH, but a lot worse for you. You are getting 5:1 on your call, but your equity is probably lower than 20%. In the books example the equity for an overpair was 25% and that was TT (much less overs then 77) and only against a single bet.

Pass.

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Perhaps you're missing the gutshot and the fact that the TAG isn't proud of his hand.

[QTip]

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Yep.

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What happened to the real W. Deranged?

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Umm, considering this looks like a free showdown/not putting any more money in this pot type hand, this is the real W. Deranged. This is, like, his favorite play ever.

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How can we not call a 3 bet? Which is why I'm not really sure I like the turn raise.

[W. Deranged]

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Yep.

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What happened to the real W. Deranged?

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I had been up for 36 straight hours when I wrote this having decided to pre-game the Harvard-Yale tailgate with 12 mid-night hours at Foxwoods...

As for the hand in question:

1. I see no reason to raise pre-flop given your reads. Raising often has the effect of getting this hand 4-handed, which is probably the worst position to be in, particularly because you use leverage on the flop being the last aggressor.

2. With no one left to act behind you except the SB, raising the flop is not good either. Waiting until the turn to put in a raise, particularly because you're in position and have a chance to shut out SB on the next street, seems much better to me. Three-betting opens you up to a cap which not only may be costing you money but also confuses the hand, as a taggish type like UTG+2 may be competent enough to cap a big flush draw or something here for value.

3. Turn raise is, as Brett notes, way up there on my list of favorite plays... We are in perfect position to take a free showdown, charge the maximum against flush and straight draws, possibly fold out hands like A6 that we probably don't want around, and maybe even encourage SB or UTG+2 to fold a better hand.

The salient question is why should we be raising when we probably can't fold to a three-bet. Here's my reasoning:

1. It is very important to realize that MP2 called two cold on the flop and called the turn. He is very loose here, but his action seems to suggest that it's pretty likely that he has either a flush draw, and open-ended draw, or at least something like a pair and a gutshot.

2. If there is any flush draw on the table, two of our outs are killed. If anyone has a 5 (quite likely), two of our outs are killed (though one is repeated). If anyone else has a 7, we lose one 7 out and halve our gutshot outs.

3. Because of the above, a bunch of our outs have pretty heavy reverse-implied odds, and require even further discounting. Let's say that we hit a 7 on the river and it goes two checks to MP2 who bets. Our call there is really extremely thin even if we decide to make it. What if the river is a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif? And so on...

My point is that what look like 6 outs here are probably only 3.5 on average. With discounting because of the reverse implieds, counting our draw as really a 3 out draw I think is safest. If, say, SB folds, UTG+2 three-bets, MP2 calls, we'd be getting something like 13-1 on our money, and so a call there is negative EV. But, some of the time we'd be getting three-bet, another player will drop or something and we can fold.

[Nick C]

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My point is that what look like 6 outs here are probably only 3.5 on average. With discounting because of the reverse implieds, counting our draw as really a 3 out draw I think is safest. If, say, SB folds, UTG+2 three-bets, MP2 calls, we'd be getting something like 13-1 on our money, and so a call there is negative EV. But, some of the time we'd be getting three-bet, another player will drop or something and we can fold.

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FWIW, if we think there's a good chance we're getting 3-bet, I think we should just call.

It's expensive to invest two bets to decide we don't quite have the odds to call one more.

Just because we can fold to a 3-bet (if we can) doesn't mean our outs are worthless.

[Nick C]

I doubt I would have made the turn raise, but I think I like it. It's entirely possible you're ahead here, and if UTG+2 happens to fold 88/99, then that's great (so long as you're beating the other players).

There is the question of what you're representing. A slowplayed set, I guess (or maybe K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif).

I might have 3-bet the flop. Or I might've cold-called, like you did. To be honest, I would have been lost during this hand.

[QTip]

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I doubt I would have made the turn raise, but I think I like it. It's entirely possible you're ahead here, and if UTG+2 happens to fold 88/99, then that's great (so long as you're beating the other players).

There is the question of what you're representing. A slowplayed set, I guess (or maybe K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif).

I might have 3-bet the flop. Or I might've cold-called, like you did. To be honest, I would have been lost during this hand.

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I've decided I don't like the turn raise.

My thoughts (flame away if necessary):

We can see the river and the river action action last for only 1 BB. As it stands, we may end up paying 3 BBs on this turn (With 3 outs to the nuts, folding that turn is not in my book, especially if sb and/or MP are still in the hand, of course.)

Even if we do raise and no one three bets, can we call a river donk bet, even if it's not a scare card?

Yes, there's a decent chance we're ahead. However, the more I look at TAG's turn bet, the more I think we may be behind. He's just led into 2 people that called 2 cold on the flop. Even if he is semi-bluffing with 2 dimaonds (assuming he didn't have something like KTs or maybe KJs), he certainly will not fold that. I think we're risking 2 or 3 BBs here on the turn with a hand that is still vunerable (at best) in a multiway pot.

I want to keep it cheap at this point.

[jason_t]

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Yes, there's a decent chance we're ahead.

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I have overlay from the LPP player too.

[QTip]

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Yes, there's a decent chance we're ahead.

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I have overlay from the LPP player too.

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Just so you know: You're PF explanation is off in that you say you're MP2 and the LPP is MP1. Didn't even notice the first time around.

Anyway, really, I've never understood the exact meaning of "overlay" and "parlay" in hand discussion contexts. So, I'm not 100% what you're saying here.

However, my assumption is that you mean his money pads the pot in that he could be calling with bottom pair or some such non-sense. Before I go on, is this what you're saying?

[jason_t]

Yeah that's what I am saying.

[QTip]

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I have the same stats as UTG+2 and on the rare occasion I can beat 7's in this spot I'm not calling a raise because I certainly don't have a K. MP1 has 2 cards, so this is standard I guess.

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you never have 66/44/33 here or a big flush draw ever?

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Yeah sometimes - all the more reason to raise.

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Are you saying you're folding to a 3 bet?

[Entity]

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I have the same stats as UTG+2 and on the rare occasion I can beat 7's in this spot I'm not calling a raise because I certainly don't have a K. MP1 has 2 cards, so this is standard I guess.

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you never have 66/44/33 here or a big flush draw ever?

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Yeah sometimes - all the more reason to raise.

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Are you saying you're folding to a 3 bet?

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Folding to a 3-bet here is a pretty large error.

Rob

[W. Deranged]

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I have the same stats as UTG+2 and on the rare occasion I can beat 7's in this spot I'm not calling a raise because I certainly don't have a K. MP1 has 2 cards, so this is standard I guess.

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you never have 66/44/33 here or a big flush draw ever?

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Yeah sometimes - all the more reason to raise.

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Are you saying you're folding to a 3 bet?

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Folding to a 3-bet here is a pretty large error.

Rob

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I disagree. It's marginal at best. We have 6 full outs here almost never and 3 or fewer quite often.

[Nick C]

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We can see the river and the river action action last for only 1 BB. As it stands, we may end up paying 3 BBs on this turn (With 3 outs to the nuts, folding that turn is not in my book, especially if sb and/or MP are still in the hand, of course.)

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We have sketchy set and one-card (non-nut) straight outs, but I wouldn't be able to fold to a 3-bet either.

So I found it reassuring when Entity said that doing so would be a mistake.

Edit: And if by some chance we get 3-bet and that 3-bet leaves us heads-up, I think folding would be really bad. I think we can count on six full outs, at that point.

[Entity]

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I have the same stats as UTG+2 and on the rare occasion I can beat 7's in this spot I'm not calling a raise because I certainly don't have a K. MP1 has 2 cards, so this is standard I guess.

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you never have 66/44/33 here or a big flush draw ever?

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Yeah sometimes - all the more reason to raise.

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Are you saying you're folding to a 3 bet?

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Folding to a 3-bet here is a pretty large error.

Rob

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I disagree. It's marginal at best. We have 6 full outs here almost never and 3 or fewer quite often.

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The parlay for us to have fewer than 3 outs would require one person to have a set or a King, another to have a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif draw, and another to have a 5 (or two people to have a 5 while another has a King/set). I can't believe you think that parlay is going to happen "quite often," even when we're 3-bet. I'd go as far to say it's rare at best, maybe even less often than that.

Rob

I'm not sure I like the turn raise given the action from UTG+2. I can't think of many hands that an 18/12/2 would open limp UTG+2 and play this way that we beat. Perhaps if it was a very loose tables something like a suited 65 or A6. Otherwise I would think you are often looking at a set, possibly a bigger overpair like 88,99 or a couple of diamonds with a King. I can't imagine many other hands UTG+2 has that he would bet into a field of 4 with on the turn after seeing 2 people cold call his flop raise.

I prefer 3-betting the flop here as well.

[W. Deranged]

It's true we don't have fewer than three outs all that often here, but consider:

1. If we get three-bet, how often are we ahead?

I think very rarely.

2. If we get three-bet and either the SB or the flop cold-caller comes along, how often do we have 6 clean outs?

I think it's unlikely that either player is calling two cold here without a big draw, meaning a flush draw or a 5. If we are up against a flush draw, we have 4-5 outs depending on the color of our set. If we are up against a 5, we have 3 outs at best.

4. If both players come along, how often do we even have three outs?

If both players call two cold, we might hope that we're up against two Ks and only one draw, but a significant portion of the time we are up against two draws. If there is a flush draw and a 5 in play, we're in bad shape.

The basic point is this: If we raise and get three-bet and the pot is heads-up, we can safely call as our 6 outs are likely to be clean. If we raise and get three-bet and others hand around, our equity is probably cut at least in half and the couple extra bets in the pot may not make up for this loss in equity.

[Entity]

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It's true we don't have fewer than three outs all that often here, but consider:

1. If we get three-bet, how often are we ahead?

I think very rarely.

2. If we get three-bet and either the SB or the flop cold-caller comes along, how often do we have 6 clean outs?

I think it's unlikely that either player is calling two cold here without a big draw, meaning a flush draw or a 5. If we are up against a flush draw, we have 4-5 outs depending on the color of our set. If we are up against a 5, we have 3 outs at best.

4. If both players come along, how often do we even have three outs?

If both players call two cold, we might hope that we're up against two Ks and only one draw, but a significant portion of the time we are up against two draws. If there is a flush draw and a 5 in play, we're in bad shape.

The basic point is this: If we raise and get three-bet and the pot is heads-up, we can safely call as our 6 outs are likely to be clean. If we raise and get three-bet and others hand around, our equity is probably cut at least in half and the couple extra bets in the pot may not make up for this loss in equity.

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Deranged,

It really comes down to this. We need about 3.4 outs to continue. That means even if we're drawing to 2 outs 40% (I think this is an overestimate) of the time, 3 outs 25% of the time, 5 outs 20% of the time and 6 outs 15% of the time, we're making a profitable call. That means we can be drawing to 3 outs or less 65% of the time and still be calling, and I don't think there's any way we're drawing to 3 outs or less nearly that often.

Given the pot size, I think folding to a turn 3-bet would be a bad decision. Obviously this depends on who 3-bets (if SB does we're [censored]), but when the TAG 3-bets and the other guys are calling we only need a small percentage of the time that they're calling with a hand like A6 (given the loose passive description) for it to become a profitable call.

Rob

[me454555]

I'd rather 3 bet the flop and play from there. I think you have a better chance of getting the most value by raising the flop. If UTG is raising a draw, he may not bet again on the turn. Sb likely hit some piece of the flop so getting him to pay the most to see the turn is good. I also don't like to open myself up for a 3 bet on the turn w/a hand like this, I'd rather find out where I stand on the flop and play from there

[bakku]

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I have the same stats as UTG+2 and on the rare occasion I can beat 7's in this spot I'm not calling a raise because I certainly don't have a K. MP1 has 2 cards, so this is standard I guess.

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you never have 66/44/33 here or a big flush draw ever?

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Yeah sometimes - all the more reason to raise.

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Are you saying you're folding to a 3 bet?

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Folding to a 3-bet here is a pretty large error.

Rob

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I disagree. It's marginal at best. We have 6 full outs here almost never and 3 or fewer quite often.

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i'm folding to a 3-bet here like never