EV?

[ReRaise]

What does it mean/stand for?

thanks

[Homer]

EV = Expected Value

Your EV is basically the average return for a given action. To solve for it, multiply the number of bets you win or lose for a certain result (e.g. - win/lose) times the probability of that result. Then sum this for each possible result.

Let's say you are playing a hand heads-up on the river. There are 9 bets in the pot and your opponent bets into you. You think you have the best hand about 20% of the time. Should you call or should you fold? You use EV to figure this out.

For example, in this case:

Folding

EV = (1.00)*(0) = 0 bets

100% of the time that you fold you will win 0 bets.

Calling

EV = (.20)*(9) + (.80)*(-1) = 1 bet

20% of the time you will win the 9 bets in the pot and 80% of the time you will lose the 1 bet you put in to call (remember that the bets you put into the pot previously aren't yours anymore, they are just part of the pot). On average, you will win 1 bet each time you call under this scenario. Since the EV of calling is better than the EV of folding, you should call.

-- Homer

[Sarge85]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
You think you have the best hand about 20% of the time. Should you call or should you fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

The part I strugle with is - how do i figure that I will have the best hand 20% of the time???? Is that number saying - ok I have a top pair top kicker - that wins 20% of the time. (example may or may not be accurate, but hopefully you see my point)

Sarge

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

You come up with that percentage based upon the range of hands you think your opponent could be making that final bet with. That range of hands comes from an analysis of his actions on prior streets.

[Homer]

The part I strugle with is - how do i figure that I will have the best hand 20% of the time???? Is that number saying - ok I have a top pair top kicker - that wins 20% of the time. (example may or may not be accurate, but hopefully you see my point)

I don't use any scientific method -- it's more of a feel thing. As you play more and more you'll have a better idea how often your hand will be good.

-- Homer

[thomastem]

Is the EV of calling beat folding if you consider rake and Dealer Tip?

[Homer]

Is the EV of calling beat folding if you consider rake and Dealer Tip?

It depends on the particular hand. But yes, these things should be accounted for.

-- Homer

[ReRaise]

Thanks for the help Homer. I like your signiture BTW.

--edit-- that math wasnt working. I need practice.

[ReRaise]

Okay... figured it out.

What must the probability (Pfold) be that two blinds fold to an open raise from the button?

(+1.5smallbets*Pfold) + (-2smallbets*Pcall) = EV = 0 to break even

Pcall = 1-Pfold

1.5P - 2 + 2P = 0
P=.572 or 57.2 percent. I must be &gt;57.2% sure that they will both fold to show an automatic profit.

[Sarge85]

/forums/images/icons/confused.gif Not at a limit game. Especailly low limt, weak passive game. Your giving better pot odds for people to stay in the hand now. If you have a good hand - great bet it for value. But if your intent is to drive the blinds out, I don't see this as a +EV.

Now at NO Limit, you could probably drive out limper short stacks - but no limit is a different ball of wax altogether.

[pudley4]

His calculation is correct. He is only trying to determine the % of the time both blinds must fold in order for an open raise on the button to show an immediate profit.

Whether or not 57% a realistic number is another issue /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[ReRaise]

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Like he said. And if you read carefully, i didnt specify that the game was a low limit game... the units are "small bets." Those small bets might have a value of $50 each at 50-100. The calculation would lead to the same 57%.

[Robbe]

Thanks for asking this! I was just looking for this myself.