Got LRR in 5-max

[Aaron W.]

This is the same villain as the other post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=3981187&an=0&page=0#Post 3981187). However, his stack is more secure and he's not playing quite as nutty. His non-nutty play is pretty loose passive preflop and decently aggro postflop. I've been pretty quiet recently because the cards haven't been so kind. However, most of the time that I've entered the pot, it's been for a raise.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

I hope you were calling that river for information.(?)

[benkath1]

[ QUOTE ]
I hope you were calling that river for information.(?)

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I'd have to say nine times out of 10, LRR screams AA or KK, I have seen it done with smaller pocket pairs, but not by the type of player you described.

[kapw7]

What's the reason for this, unless you want to adverise your image as a fish?

[kapw7]

Nice structure. Is that THC?
Retrosynthesis pls. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[LoaferGee12]

I'm bet-folding any non-ace river, as I think he pays off with a lot of Ax hands. However, with that ace you definitely need to check-fold this.

your so [censored] on that river

[Aaron W.]

Here's my thinking through the hand.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

The raise is pretty standard for me, especially since BB was a little tight. I would much rather play this heads up than 3-handed. When he limp-reraised, I wasn't sure what to make of it. It's the first (and only) time he did this. I knew that he had some aggro in him, so he could be doing it with a weak hand. What really mattered to me was what flopped.

Flop: (7 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Had the flop come with two distinct broadway cards, I would have check-folded. In fact, if the board had come unpaired, I would likely have check-folded.

But the board is paired, I decided to play showdown poker. If he has a two overcards, I'm a something like 70-30 to win. I'm only chasing if he has a better pair or a king, in which case I'm a little worse than a 90-10 dog. But those 10% when I hit my set, I'm going to make a little extra money, so I think I'm safe and conservative if I round it up to a full 90-10 instead of the 92-8 or so that it really is.

I'm expecting to put 5 SB into the pot, and expecting him to do the same. This is a very safe assumption because most players who LRR HU don't have the discipline to stop betting. There are 7 SB in the pot after the preflop action. So I'm getting about 2.4:1 to call him down. I decided it was close enough and just called the rest of the way.

I'll do out the calculation here because it's interesting (not because I did this during the hand). How often must I be ahead on the flop in order to win money based on these assumptions? Let x be the percent I'm ahead.

EV = x*(.7)*(12) + x*(.3)*(-5) + (1-x)*(.1)*(12) + (1-x)*(.9)*(-5)
= 10.2*x - 3.3

I'm even money if I'm ahead just 32% of the time. What does this mean? It just shows you the "magic number" for assessing this situation is. The point is just to show you that I don't need to be a substantial favorite to call this down. Since the board is paired, the chances that I'm chasing a 2-outer is much smaller.

Flop: (7 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

I almost folded on the ace. But I passed the point of no return by calling the turn bet. Well, I actually think the point of no return is the flop bet. Either way, if I call the turn I must call the river.

The idea is that I'm trying to induce him to bluff all the way to the showdown by playing weakly. If you are checking to induce a bluff, you'd better not fold when a scare card comes. It's common sense! When you induce a bluff, you need to commit to calling regardless of the card that falls.

[McGahee]

I like the flop check/call because you can get pushed off the best hand when you donk or C/R since he's really never giving you credit for a K.
On the turn though you're either WB or he has 6 good outs so I'd probably bet as long as he's not capable of raising with OC's. Of course if you know he'll autobet, the check/call is fine too.
Don't really get the river - looks like either a bet/fold or check/fold.

[LoaferGee12]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the flop check/call because you can get pushed off the best hand when you donk or C/R since he's really never giving you credit for a K.
On the turn though you're either WB or he has 6 good outs so I'd probably bet as long as he's not capable of raising with OC's. Of course if you know he'll autobet, the check/call is fine too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the prior action, villain is going to continue-bet this turn almost 100% of the time. Given this, it isn't worth risking getting raised and having to fold what could have been the best hand at the time, or could have improved on the river.

As for your thinking on the river Aaron, I still fail to see what you think you have beat on that river. I also don't think your thinking is correct that if you call the turn you have to call the river, no matter what. If you put him on a hand range, and the card makes it so that you really cannot beat the hand range you had him on, I see no reason to call.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
As for your thinking on the river Aaron, I still fail to see what you think you have beat on that river. I also don't think your thinking is correct that if you call the turn you have to call the river, no matter what. If you put him on a hand range, and the card makes it so that you really cannot beat the hand range you had him on, I see no reason to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't put him on any specific hands. He either has a junk hand, a monster, or some random pair that got fancy. I beat a ton of junk hands, no monsters, and only a few random pairs.

Going into the turn and river, I'm not thinking to myself that I have ace-high beat. I'm thinking to myself that I'm ahead of a lot of junk hands. So the ace on the river doesn't really hurt me very often if he has a junk hand. Since the junk hand is pretty nebulous, I don't really know what cards are scare cards and which aren't.

By the way, I don't recall ever seeing someone LRR with a hand like Ax where x is smaller than K.

[LoaferGee12]

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[ QUOTE ]
As for your thinking on the river Aaron, I still fail to see what you think you have beat on that river. I also don't think your thinking is correct that if you call the turn you have to call the river, no matter what. If you put him on a hand range, and the card makes it so that you really cannot beat the hand range you had him on, I see no reason to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't put him on any specific hands. He either has a junk hand, a monster, or some random pair that got fancy. I beat a ton of junk hands, no monsters, and only a few random pairs.

Going into the turn and river, I'm not thinking to myself that I have ace-high beat. I'm thinking to myself that I'm ahead of a lot of junk hands. So the ace on the river doesn't really hurt me very often if he has a junk hand. Since the junk hand is pretty nebulous, I don't really know what cards are scare cards and which aren't.

By the way, I don't recall ever seeing someone LRR with a hand like Ax where x is smaller than K.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, valid points. So you're thinking he might be junking around with a hand like JTs or whatnot? That thought crossed my mind.

[xLukex]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I hope you were calling that river for information.(?)

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I'd have to say nine times out of 10, LRR screams AA or KK, I have seen it done with smaller pocket pairs, but not by the type of player you described.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not in 1/2 6max. It happens ALL the time with fish...and most of the time for me it's not AA or KK but someone deciding they want to cap prefop for fun.