A6o on the Bubble - push or fold?

[Shorty35]

Looking for leaks. Too often, I am making the wrong decision in spots like this.

Should I now be playing only to get itm? or is the higher $EV move to go for it?


***** Hand History for Game 3057777284 *****
400/800 Game Table (NL) (Tournament 17531051) - Fri Nov 18 22:51:17 EST 2005
Table Table 68187 (Real Money) -- Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: TallThinMan (1577)
Seat 8: pagaille (6115)
Seat 9: z32fanatic4 (1444)
Seat 10: DEADDUCKYY (864)
pagaille posts small blind (200)
z32fanatic4 posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TallThinMan [ Ad, 6s ]
DEADDUCKYY folds.
TallThinMan ?

[Freudian]

I let this go since BB is about to hit the 2xBB stack. And pushing into such a big stack with weak aces make me uncomfortable. You are in much less urgency than the other two smaller stacks here.

[splashpot]

I think this is a clear push. Although not as bad as the others, your stack is hurting pretty bad too. The short guy doubles up and you're in trouble.

[bennies]

It's a fold. Take AT instead and it would be a tough decision in which a read on bigstack would help a lot.

[splashpot]

If you put SNGPT on the maniac range for both SB and BB, it's a marginal push. Maniac is 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs. Personally, I think both their ranges are going to be tighter than that. So I push this unless I've read them to be wild.

[Freudian]

SNGPT doesn't take following hands into account. And what happens the next hand is very relevant to our hero.

[splashpot]

Even so. You're in lots of trouble if everyone sticks around for one more orbit. And that's completely possible. Stealing the blinds here adds a HUGE chunk to your stack. If anything, you probably have more fold equity because of shortie.

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
If you put SNGPT on the maniac range for both SB and BB, it's a marginal push. Maniac is 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs. Personally, I think both their ranges are going to be tighter than that. So I push this unless I've read them to be wild.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think SB might be looser than this (because of his bigstack). For BB I think this range is about right.

Freudian said the next hand is important, this is true, however you can make it part of your SNGPT calculation.

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
I think SB might be looser than this (because of his bigstack). For BB I think this range is about right.

[/ QUOTE ]
You really think the big stack is calling hands worse than that range? Like what? K9, JT? I can't see him calling with hands like that. My stack is big enough to do some significant damage to his lead.

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think SB might be looser than this (because of his bigstack). For BB I think this range is about right.

[/ QUOTE ]
You really think the big stack is calling hands worse than that range? Like what? K9, JT? I can't see him calling with hands like that. My stack is big enough to do some significant damage to his lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure but I feel I see it pretty often. He would pay 1377 to win 2177 - these are decent odds for K8o, 87s, Q5s etc. Also, some bigstacks like play table sherif.

[Freudian]

Think we have very different definitions of significant. If you add in BB he might feel he get a pretty good price on his call. I just got busted by a SB that had a smaller stack than the big stack in this hand that thought he got a good enough price to call my 5xBB push (blinds 150/300) with J3s.

[splashpot]

Well I still push this pretty easily. I would only consider folding this if shortie had less than the BB. If that were the case, he'd have to get VERY lucky to make it through this round of blinds. With 2 BB, he only has to get semi-lucky.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I still push this pretty easily. I would only consider folding this if shortie had less than the BB. If that were the case, he'd have to get VERY lucky to make it through this round of blinds. With 2 BB, he only has to get semi-lucky.

[/ QUOTE ]

In 95% of cases he will be all-in in one of the next two hands.

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well I still push this pretty easily. I would only consider folding this if shortie had less than the BB. If that were the case, he'd have to get VERY lucky to make it through this round of blinds. With 2 BB, he only has to get semi-lucky.

[/ QUOTE ]

In 95% of cases he will be all-in in one of the next two hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
But all he has to do is win one of those all ins and you're screwed.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well I still push this pretty easily. I would only consider folding this if shortie had less than the BB. If that were the case, he'd have to get VERY lucky to make it through this round of blinds. With 2 BB, he only has to get semi-lucky.

[/ QUOTE ]

In 95% of cases he will be all-in in one of the next two hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
But all he has to do is win one of those all ins and you're screwed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Working under the assumption that smallstack will win his coming hands will lead you to make plenty of mistakes. He is the one forced to make a move and is much more likely to do it with a hand he has the worst of than vice versa.

Besides, the other medium stack is more likely to be screwed before you. He is eating 600 chips of blinds this and next hand.

The next hand either big stack pushes or you will see a SB vs BB all in. Both options are good for you.

[splashpot]

I'm working under the assumption that he WILL win a hand against a random hand 50% of the time. Too high if you ask me. You chances of stealing these blinds are good. Very good IMO.

[ QUOTE ]
Besides, the other medium stack is more likely to be screwed before you. He is eating 600 chips of blinds this and next hand

[/ QUOTE ]
Not if SB folds to him.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm working under the assumption that he WILL win a hand against a random hand 50% of the time. Too high if you ask me. You chances of stealing these blinds are good. Very good IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

He isn't playing against one opponent. He has three opponents.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

Not if SB folds to him.

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem intent on assuming everything will go every other players way. The chance of bigstack pushing from SB is huge the next hand.

If you feel stressed and think you are the one in gravest danger here, push. I think you have no reason to.

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Not if SB folds to him.

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem intent on assuming everything will go every other players way. The chance of bigstack pushing from SB is huge the next hand.

If you feel stressed and think you are the one in gravest danger here, push. I think you have no reason to.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming that there is a chance things will go his way. I try to assign a probability to that chance. Obviously this is an estimate.

Yea, most of the time, bigstack will push, but not every bigstack is a bully. Some are idiots.

I just think that your chances of stealing these blinds is very good. The benefit you get from adding those blinds to your stack is huge. If you fold, you risk the small stack getting bigger. That risk too big IMO. Pushing seems better to me.

[jeffraider]

I agree with splashpot, I definitely push this. Sure going through big stack is scary but he folds a lot more than you think. I think you win the blinds plenty here without even having to show a hand down, and your hand is pretty decent for this kind of situation.

[mlagoo]

the idea that big stacks are necessarily loose is wrong. plenty of big stacks are still just trying to eek their way into the money. this goes down to a read, which i'm sure by this point the OP had.

this is a push for me like 70% of the time (usually depending on how active i've been recently and how loose either of these fellas are).

[Freudian]

Of course how he got hold of those 6k chips is very important. And if it seems he has decided to cruise to ITM, a push becomes more attractive.

[Shorty35]

Ill add some more info to fuel the debate:

This was a $50+5

Shorties had both been quite passive; clearly looking to get itm

Bigstack had been solid and aggressive. He got a huge chunk of his chips when hero doubled him up. Hero had been the big stack bully, pushing several hands with a commanding chip lead and getting lots of folds...until my monster 22 ran into overcards /images/graemlins/tongue.gif. For about three orbits I have reverted to TAG and only played one hand.

Change anything?

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Ill add some more info to fuel the debate:

This was a $50+5

Shorties had both been quite passive; clearly looking to get itm

Bigstack had been solid and aggressive. He got a huge chunk of his chips when hero doubled him up. Hero had been the big stack bully, pushing several hands with a commanding chip lead and getting lots of folds...until my monster 22 ran into overcards /images/graemlins/tongue.gif. For about three orbits I have reverted to TAG and only played one hand.

Change anything?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. But I don't know in what direction.

Pro-push: If you think he is a good player he should have a fairly tight calling range.

Pro-fold: If you have been involved with a lot of hands previously in the SnG he might get your pushing range wrong and make a call with a hand you don't want. Furthermore you can probably count on him to push every hand he is first in the pot, not giving the other stacks any walks.

If he plays like a 2+2er I think it might tilt this to a push for me overall since it increases the chances of winning the blinds.

[microbet]

Unless big stack is loose, I close my eyes and push.

We don't often talk about reads on this forum because so many of us are playing a lot of tables and reads are hard to talk about anyway, but I think not having a decent idea of what big stack is like at this point is a HUGE leak.

I'm not saying that OP doesn't have an idea, just a general comment.

Push & Pray

[Shorty35]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ill add some more info to fuel the debate:

This was a $50+5

Shorties had both been quite passive; clearly looking to get itm

Bigstack had been solid and aggressive. He got a huge chunk of his chips when hero doubled him up. Hero had been the big stack bully, pushing several hands with a commanding chip lead and getting lots of folds...until my monster 22 ran into overcards /images/graemlins/tongue.gif. For about three orbits I have reverted to TAG and only played one hand.

Change anything?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. But I don't know in what direction.

Pro-push: If you think he is a good player he should have a fairly tight calling range.

Pro-fold: If you have been involved with a lot of hands previously in the SnG he might get your pushing range wrong and make a call with a hand you don't want. Furthermore you can probably count on him to push every hand he is first in the pot, not giving the other stacks any walks.

If he plays like a 2+2er I think it might tilt this to a push for me overall since it increases the chances of winning the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]


I think this is spot on; and he did appear to have a 2+2 style having pushed into the blinds twice.

So, in a grey area decision, what does every good 2+2er do? We push.


And Big stack villan wakes up with AQs, so I dont know that we were able to establish anything other than you usually lose when you push A6o into a big stack with AQs /images/graemlins/shocked.gif.

Given 24 hours and this thread to think about it; I would push again. The blinds would have virtually guaranteed me itm with a decent shot at first. Folding gets me a decent shot ITM with a long shot at first.

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
Looking for leaks. Too often, I am making the wrong decision in spots like this.

Should I now be playing only to get itm? or is the higher $EV move to go for it?


***** Hand History for Game 3057777284 *****
400/800 Game Table (NL) (Tournament 17531051) - Fri Nov 18 22:51:17 EST 2005
Table Table 68187 (Real Money) -- Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: TallThinMan (1577)
Seat 8: pagaille (6115)
Seat 9: z32fanatic4 (1444)
Seat 10: DEADDUCKYY (864)
pagaille posts small blind (200)
z32fanatic4 posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TallThinMan [ Ad, 6s ]
DEADDUCKYY folds.
TallThinMan ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's vote on this.