the dude who's raising preflop, he's got QQ. I've got T8s. I...

[creedofhubris]

OK. I was actually sitting in a 9-handed 4-8 game for laughs and the guy sitting next to me UTG+1 flashed me his Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/spade.gif as he open-raised preflop. I was sitting on T/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/heart.gif and folded quickly.

But I'm no longer at all sure that was the proper move, given that I knew his hand.

I'm curious what you all would do in a 15-30 live game, if you saw those hole cards and were next to act.

[The Truth]

You can flip the situation around a bit to make calling better. Change the hands to where you are at less of a disadvantage. Change positions etc.

In this instance though, the leverage you can get over the other players in the pot isn't great enough to overcome you lack of equity.

blake

[DcifrThs]

im against there grain here i guess.

at 4-8 id call and hope to build a large pot.

one of the things about this hand is that if the flop is Tc5h2s and you have top pair no kicker bd flush and its bet into you, you are gunna do the same thing as you would have called in sb after button raised in front of you except this time you KNOW the raiser's cards. you can now raise flops that are scary like A53 w/ 2 hearts and play the hand more aggressively to put maximum pressure on him to make a mistake, which he's more likely to believe you in the multiway pot. i bet your sb calling standards go down a lot if you know the button's cards. in fact, that is an interesting question in and of itself. this post is great b/c it provokes DS type questions, the analysis of which open your mind to good ways to think about the game. im just roaming here.

anyways, you dont have just him to be worried about. at any limit if UTG+1 raises and UTG+2 cold calls, there's likely a pot 'a brewin. i dont mind paying the maybe 3:1 against out of 1big bet (HU, much less multiway) if i am likely going into a big multiway pot with relative position AND info that nobody else has ...which i can now exploit.

a few questions: does HE know you saw his cards?

would 3 betting get this HU or 3 way with you in position? how likely?

Barron

The -EV of having a worse hand going in is made up for (and more) by the hugely positive EV knowing his cards. I would almost certainly reraise and try to get it heads up between me and queens.

First, you want to be 100% sure where you are in the hand at all times, and you cannot do that with other hands in the pot. Next, once you are 100% sure where you are, and more importantly where he is, you can totally outplay him postflop. Finally, if he just won't be outplayed (maybe gets super stuboorn and calls down with an A or K on board), or if you actually win and you have to show down, it's great for metagame purposes.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
The -EV of having a worse hand going in is made up for (and more) by the hugely positive EV knowing his cards. I would almost certainly reraise and try to get it heads up between me and queens.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on now. Most players are showdown bound when the have queens. You simply will not make a hand often enough to justify the preflop expense. And I'm totally ignoring the possibility of somebody waking up behind you with another big hand.

-Eric

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The -EV of having a worse hand going in is made up for (and more) by the hugely positive EV knowing his cards. I would almost certainly reraise and try to get it heads up between me and queens.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on now. Most players are showdown bound when the have queens. You simply will not make a hand often enough to justify the preflop expense. And I'm totally ignoring the possibility of somebody waking up behind you with another big hand.

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

thats the thing...if we're JUST talking about outplaying him HU then of course you fold. QQ will call down tons of the time hu.

but we are very likely now to be multiway. two early folks just put in 1bb each, people will now come in with more hands. i think this may be true so i'll write it then think about it:

on the margin, each additional player that enters in this spot gives us a > equity gain/increase in pot odds. ok so you were getting 1.25+1:1 immediate pot odds plus you know raisers hand. w/ KTo, if another person calls, you get the same 1.25+2:1 that you got before but now like your hand less as more people enter the pot (you wont win it often enough and will end up paying off 2nd best more often in general), so your equity (including playability of hand)/pot odds INCREASE would be <1. w/ T8s i think that as more people enter the pot the additional money in there will (to a point) yield a equity/pot odds ratio of > 1.

Barron

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]

anyways, you dont have just him to be worried about. at any limit if UTG+1 raises and UTG+2 cold calls, there's likely a pot 'a brewin. i dont mind paying the maybe 3:1 against out of 1big bet (HU, much less multiway) if i am likely going into a big multiway pot with relative position AND info that nobody else has ...which i can now exploit.

a few questions: does HE know you saw his cards?

would 3 betting get this HU or 3 way with you in position? how likely?

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

In the game I was in, which was 4-8 (as I said), 3-betting would possibly get headsup, possibly get 5-way action as everyone and their grandmother comes in with random pocket pairs. I would expect it to get HU about 50% of the time, I've got a tight image.

The gentleman in question does not know he's flashed me his cards.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]

In the game I was in, which was 4-8 (as I said), 3-betting would possibly get headsup, I've got a tight image.


[/ QUOTE ]
WOW.
like, 4.00/8.00USD?
dude dont be such a nit!
youre playing tight in a 4/8 game, why?

[flawless_victory]

BTW/ i voted raise, but i would raise even i hadnt seen the guys cards.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
You can flip the situation around a bit to make calling better. Change the hands to where you are at less of a disadvantage. Change positions etc.

In this instance though, the leverage you can get over the other players in the pot isn't great enough to overcome you lack of equity.

blake

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I thought at first (whoa, I'm a massive dog, time to fold.) But I'm no longer as sure, because knowing for certain his holding makes it a lot easier to blast him off it if the right cards come. This concept is key in NL,my usual game, where if I saw his QQ hole cards I would not have considered folding this, just whether to call or 3-bet.

I now think that if I saw that he had JJ instead of QQ, 3-betting is by far the best move despite the fact that I have two unders, because now I can represent AKQ if it hits as well as milking my own hand for all its value.

[steveyz]

If the game has been quite loose (as most 4-8s are), then I go ahead and cold call. Only if the game has been very tight or very aggro would I fold.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW/ i voted raise, but i would raise even i hadnt seen the guys cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol. I can never tell when you are serious or not.

[ErrantNight]

Short of written guarantees from players behind you that they're flop-bound I can't see how playing such a weak hand against QQ (or KK, or AA) will be correct since he will go to showdown pretty much always.

[Garland]

My question to you is: Why are you trying to play mind games and tricks in a small stakes limit hold em' game?

Just about anyone will tell you that as you described the table, playing the game straight up will win you the most money. Of course no-limit and higher stakes limit are a different beast altogether...

Garland

[bigt2k4]

if u were gonna fold b4 he showed u his cards, then dont be a cheat and stay in, just fold.

[Alexthegreat]

[ QUOTE ]
if u were gonna fold b4 he showed u his cards, then dont be a cheat and stay in, just fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

hahahahaha. If you had A3 and you were gonna fold but he flashed you A2 as he open raised, , would you still fold? if yes, dumb.

[elindauer]

That's an interesting theory barron. You say intuitively you can get there. I feel intuitively you can't. I'm too lazy to do any rigorous math, so on some level we'll have to agree to disagree.

One thing to consider though is how bad the call would be if you did not know the raiser's hand. You are totally dominated, it would be awful. You agree, right?

Now, as more players enter the pot, it's going to be harder and harder for you to outplay everybody, even with the knowledge of 1 players hand. Where are the extra wins going to come from?

Presumably, you must be able to win unimproved or slightly improved more often because you know the Qs hand. I'm sure you pick up something, but I suspect it's not much. Qs have a way of sticking to a player's hand. If there is an overcard out, you have to raise and hope that a) the other guys don't have the overcard, and b) the Qs will fold. That's an expensive bluff when it fails.

If there is no overcard, you will rarely be succesful in bluffing out the Qs. And with the Qs on your right, you can't even take advantage of knowing he'll value bet through the field letting you check-raise those times you do get lucky and make a big hand.

These are just qualatative arguments of course. I'm not proving the case. Just trying to let you know why my intuition says the fold is bad. You start way down, and don't have that many ways to make up ground.

-Eric

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
My question to you is: Why are you trying to play mind games and tricks in a small stakes limit hold em' game?

Just about anyone will tell you that as you described the table, playing the game straight up will win you the most money. Of course no-limit and higher stakes limit are a different beast altogether...

Garland

[/ QUOTE ]

I was playing ABC. In the real hand, I folded. Just wondering if people agreed that that was the proper play, especially in a somewhat bigger limit game.

[DcifrThs]

eric, you've always been one of my favorite people to debate. keep it coming.

[ QUOTE ]
That's an interesting theory barron. You say intuitively you can get there. I feel intuitively you can't. I'm too lazy to do any rigorous math, so on some level we'll have to agree to disagree.


[/ QUOTE ]

if you say so.

[ QUOTE ]


One thing to consider though is how bad the call would be if you did not know the raiser's hand. You are totally dominated, it would be awful. You agree, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

but we know i wouldn't be making the call if i was HU vs. him. i.e. if he raise the BU w/ QQ and i saw his hand and was SB w/ T8s id fold. no problem. but here im in a position to build the pot to a nice large one where QQ is actually feeding me the implied odds that a hand like T8s loves.

in economics and finance, decisions are made based on the marginal contribution of decision A vs. decision B. similarly, if we normalize everything by pot odds, the increased contribution to our equity of the next entrance into the pot is greater w/ T8s than w/ a ahnd like KTo.

[ QUOTE ]

Now, as more players enter the pot, it's going to be harder and harder for you to outplay everybody, even with the knowledge of 1 players hand. Where are the extra wins going to come from?

[/ QUOTE ]

its not extra wins. and you're not trying to outplay everyone. you're trying to maximize your odds when u have a draw vs. maximize your chance of winning. i think your position vs. the raiser is worth the premium u pay to enter.

[ QUOTE ]

Presumably, you must be able to win unimproved or slightly improved more often because you know the Qs hand. I'm sure you pick up something, but I suspect it's not much. Qs have a way of sticking to a player's hand. If there is an overcard out, you have to raise and hope that a) the other guys don't have the overcard, and b) the Qs will fold. That's an expensive bluff when it fails.

[/ QUOTE ]

but its not a full bluff. when you DO choose to put money in the pot w/ T8s its almost certainly in a situation where you have a good deal of equity. knowoing a player's hand and having position on that player and relative position vs. the field is a very good thing.


[ QUOTE ]

If there is no overcard, you will rarely be succesful in bluffing out the Qs. And with the Qs on your right, you can't even take advantage of knowing he'll value bet through the field letting you check-raise those times you do get lucky and make a big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

the c'r thing is a big loss relatively speaking.

[ QUOTE ]


These are just qualatative arguments of course. I'm not proving the case. Just trying to let you know why my intuition says the fold is bad. You start way down, and don't have that many ways to make up ground.

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

well you may start down but you can end up overall up.

Barron

[elindauer]

Hi Barron,

I like your arguments, they make qualitative sense. We're just in disagreement about the magnitude of the effects. You argue that you can make up your preflop equity loss because lots of players are going to coldcall along with you. I certainly agree that if the pot gets big enough, you may turn a profit.

I'm a little more skeptical that a big pot is going to develop consistently enough, and you are going to win it often enough though, that you can overcome what we both agree is a preflop sacrifice.

Without one of us hunkering down and crunching numbers, I think we're at a standstill. I'm not convinced, but I do respect your opinion and concede that I could be wrong.

good luck.
eric

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Barron,

I like your arguments, they make qualitative sense. We're just in disagreement about the magnitude of the effects. You argue that you can make up your preflop equity loss because lots of players are going to coldcall along with you. I certainly agree that if the pot gets big enough, you may turn a profit.

I'm a little more skeptical that a big pot is going to develop consistently enough, and you are going to win it often enough though, that you can overcome what we both agree is a preflop sacrifice.

Without one of us hunkering down and crunching numbers, I think we're at a standstill. I'm not convinced, but I do respect your opinion and concede that I could be wrong.

good luck.
eric

[/ QUOTE ]

it may also be instructive to ask DS's assistance here since it is he who is always coming up w/ questions like "if you had KK and it was FACE UP and you had it every hand what is your expectation /hr at X/2X?"

here its like one hand, QQ and the QQ DOESN"T know we know he has QQ. is T8s worth it UTG+2 after UTG+1 opens.

Barron